Salsabilla, Shafira Keila (2025) Analisis Ketahanan Terminal Migas Di Indonesia Menggunakan Pendekatan Hybrid Functional Resonance Analysis Method-Monte Carlo Dan Resilience Assessment Grid. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Industri minyak dan gas (migas) merupakan sektor berisiko tinggi di mana metode manajemen keselamatan konvensional (Safety-I) seringkali tidak memadai untuk mengelola kompleksitas sistem sosio-teknis modern seperti terminal migas. Realitas ini mendorong pergeseran paradigma menuju Resilience Engineering (Safety-II), yang berfokus pada pemahaman bagaimana sistem berhasil beradaptasi di tengah variabilitas operasional. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis ketahanan operasional di Terminal Dumai dengan mengidentifikasi variabilitas fungsional, memprioritaskan fungsi-fungsi kritis, dan mengukur kapasitas resiliensi sistem. Metodologi penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan hibrida: Pertama, FRAM diterapkan untuk memodelkan 31 fungsi operasional lifting sebagai sebuah jaringan dinamis. Kedua, model tersebut diintegrasikan dengan simulasi Monte Carlo untuk mengkuantifikasi tingkat kritisan fungsi melalui VPN. Ketiga, RAG digunakan untuk mengevaluasi empat kapabilitas resiliensi pada aktivitas operasional yang teridentifikasi paling kritis. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model FRAM berhasil memetakan hubungan ketergantungan yang kompleks. Simulasi Monte Carlo secara definitif mengidentifikasi F10 (Bermanuver - kapal tambat) sebagai fungsi paling kritis. Sementara itu, penilaian RAG menunjukkan bahwa sistem memiliki profil ketahanan pada level "Baik" (skor rata-rata > 4.0), dengan kapabilitas untuk mengantisipasi (4.28) sebagai yang tertinggi dan merespons (4.10) sebagai yang terendah. Sintesis dari ketiga metode menyimpulkan bahwa meskipun organisasi memiliki kapasitas resiliensi umum yang matang, terdapat kebutuhan mendesak untuk memfokuskan intervensi pada penguatan fungsi-fungsi paling kritis yang telah teridentifikasi.
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The oil and gas industry are a high-risk sector where conventional safety management methods (Safety-I), which focus on preventing failures, are often inadequate for managing the complexity of modern socio-technical systems such as oil and gas terminals. This reality prompts a paradigm shift towards Resilience Engineering (Safety-II), which centers on understanding how systems successfully adapt amidst operational variability. This research aims to analyze the operational resilience at the Dumai Terminal by identifying functional variability, prioritizing critical functions, and measuring the system's resilience capacity. This study employs a hybrid methodology: First, the FRAM is applied to model 31 lifting operational functions as a dynamic network. Second, this model is integrated with Monte Carlo simulation to quantify the criticality of each function by calculating the VPN. Third, the RAG is used to evaluate the four resilience capabilities within the most critical identified operational activity. The results show that the FRAM model successfully mapped the complex dependency relationships. The Monte Carlo simulation definitively identifies F10 (Maneuvering (mooring boat)) as the most critical function and the primary source of risk variability. Meanwhile, the RAG assessment reveals that the system has a "Good" resilience profile (average score > 4.0), with the capability to anticipate (4.28) being the strongest and the capability to respond (4.10) being the weakest. A synthesis of the three methods concludes that although the organization possesses a mature overall resilience capacity, there is an urgent need to focus interventions on strengthening the most critical identified functions.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), Simulasi Monte Carlo, Resilience Assessment Grid (RAG), Resilience Engineering, Terminal Minyak dan Gas, Monte Carlo Simulation, Oil and Gas Terminals |
| Subjects: | V Naval Science > VK > VK200 Merchant marine--Safety measures V Naval Science > VK > VK235 Cargo handling. V Naval Science > VK > VK358 Marine terminals V Naval Science > VK > VK361 Mooring of ships. Dry docks |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Marine Engineering > 36202-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Shafira Keila Salsabilla |
| Date Deposited: | 05 Aug 2025 01:14 |
| Last Modified: | 05 Aug 2025 01:14 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/127174 |
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