Pembaharuan Studi Kelayakan Investasi Proyek Jalan Tol Semarang - Demak

Wibawa, Andre Rheznandya (2025) Pembaharuan Studi Kelayakan Investasi Proyek Jalan Tol Semarang - Demak. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Proyek Jalan Tol Semarang-Demak merupakan inisiatif infrastruktur strategis untuk konektivitas dan mitigasi banjir rob di Semarang Timur. Studi kelayakan awal tahun 2019 menunjukkan proyek ini belum layak finansial (NPV (Rp29,37 triliun), IRR 3,29%, Payback Period 23 tahun). Penelitian ini memperbarui studi kelayakan dengan mempertimbangkan dinamika terkini, termasuk keterlambatan konstruksi Seksi I hingga April 2027 dan penyesuaian pembiayaan Seksi II, yang menunjukkan perbaikan awal indikator keuangan namun proyek tetap dengan NPV negatif. Pembaruan studi kelayakan mencerminkan kondisi terkini sebelum adendum menunjukkan penurunan kelayakan, dengan NPV sebesar (Rp4,56 triliun), IRR 7,06%, dan Payback Period 26,12 tahun. Namun, setelah adendum dengan penyesuaian tarif awal dan perpanjangan masa konsesi, indikator keuangan membaik signifikan dengan NPV menjadi (Rp1,90 triliun), IRR naik menjadi 9,64%, dan Payback Period 26,55 tahun. Analisis risiko simulasi Monte Carlo menunjukkan rata-rata NPV (Rp1,89 triliun) dengan probabilitas tinggi hasil negatif, mengindikasikan risiko finansial yang masih signifikan, di mana volume lalu lintas harian golongan I dan II menjadi variabel paling berpengaruh. Meskipun secara finansial belum sepenuhnya layak, proyek ini tetap dijalankan karena nilai strategis dan manfaat sosial-ekonomi yang lebih luas.
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The Semarang–Demak Toll Road Project is a strategic infrastructure initiative aimed at improving connectivity and mitigating tidal flooding in East Semarang. The 2019 feasibility study indicated the project was not financially viable, with an NPV of (Rp29.37 trillion), IRR of 3.29%, and a payback period of 23 years. This research updates the feasibility study based on recent developments, including construction delays in Section I until April 2027 and financing adjustments for Section II. The updated analysis, reflecting pre-addendum conditions, showed slight improvement but still recorded a negative NPV of (Rp4.56 trillion), IRR of 7.06%, and payback period of 26.12 years. After applying the addendum with initial tariff adjustments and a longer concession period, financial indicators improved significantly to NPV (Rp1.90 trillion), IRR 9.64%, and payback period 26.55 years. A Monte Carlo risk simulation revealed an average NPV of (Rp1.89 trillion) with a high probability of negative values, highlighting financial risks—particularly traffic volume for vehicle classes I and II as the most influential factor. Although still not fully viable financially, the project continues due to its strategic importance and broader socio-economic benefits.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Jalan Tol Semarang – Demak, Kelayakan Investasi, Pembangunan Jalan Tol, Simulasi Risiko
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4028.V3 Valuation. Economic value H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4529 Investment analysis
Divisions:	Faculty of Industrial Technology > Industrial Engineering > 26201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Andre Rheznandya Wibawa
Date Deposited:	05 Aug 2025 07:53
Last Modified:	05 Aug 2025 07:53
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/127318

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