Forecasting Permintaan Carrie dan Return Roller Dengan Metode Pendekatan Time Series : Pertambangan Andesit Wilayah Cilegon

Fahmi, Zul (2025) Forecasting Permintaan Carrie dan Return Roller Dengan Metode Pendekatan Time Series : Pertambangan Andesit Wilayah Cilegon. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Ketersediaan komponen spare part seperti carrie roller dan return roller memiliki peran penting dalam menjamin kelangsungan operasional industri pertambangan, khususnya dalam pengangkutan hasil penambangan batuan andesit. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan permintaan dua komponen tersebut menggunakan pendekatan time series forecasting dengan studi kasus di perusahaan penambangan batuan andesit wilayah Cilegon. Permintaan yang tidak stabil dan ketidakakuratan estimasi kebutuhan seringkali mengakibatkan penumpukan atau kekurangan stok, yang bisa memberikan dampak terhadap biaya dan operasional produksi. Data historis penggunaan spare part dikumpulkan selama periode enam tahun dan dianalisis menggunakan model time series seperti ARIMA. Hasil pemodelan menunjukkan bahwa model ARIMA yang berbeda dapat digunakan untuk setiap tipe roller, dengan pemilihan model terbaik didasarkan pada nilai BIC terendah serta uji asumsi residual. Secara khusus, model ARIMA (2,0,0) digunakan untuk CR210, ARIMA (0,1,1) untuk CR315, CR370 dan CR420, ARIMA (1,0,0) untuk RR800 dan RR1300, serta ARIMA (0,1,1) untuk RR1000 dan RR1150.
Berdasarkan proyeksi permintaan tahun 2025, diperoleh hasil bahwa CR210 cenderung menurun, CR315, CR370 dan CR420 mengalami peningkatan permintaan. Untuk return roller, RR800 dan RR1150 menunjukkan pola yang relatif stabil, sedangkan RR1000 dan RR1300 mengalami tren peningkatan secara perlahan. Hasil penelitian ini memberikan implikasi manajerial penting bagi PT. ABC dalam menyusun strategi pengadaan, optimasi gudang, dan pengelolaan rantai pasok. Komponen dengan tren meningkat seperti CR315, CR370 dan CR420 harus menjadi prioritas pengadaan, sementara komponen dengan tren stabil dan menurun seperti CR210, RR800 dan RR1150 dapat dikelola secara konservatif untuk mengurangi biaya penyimpanan
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The availability of spare parts such as carrier rollers and return rollers plays an important role in ensuring the continuity of mining industry operations, particularly in the transportation of andesite rock mining products. This study aims to forecast the demand for these two components using a time series forecasting approach with a case study at an andesite rock mining company in the Cilegon area. Unstable demand and inaccurate estimates of requirements often result in stockpiling or shortages, which can have an impact on production costs and operations. Historical data on spare part usage was collected over a six-year period and analyzed using time series models such as ARIMA. The modeling results show that different ARIMA models can be used for each roller type, with the best model selection based on the lowest BIC value and residual assumption test. Specifically, the ARIMA (2,0,0) model is used for CR210, ARIMA (0,1,1) for CR315, CR370 and CR420, ARIMA (1,0,0) for RR800 and RR1300, and ARIMA (0,1,1) for RR1000 and RR1150.Based on the 2025 demand projections, the results show that CR210 tends to decline, while CR315, CR370, and CR420 experience an increase in demand. For return rollers, RR800 and RR1150 show arelatively stable pattern, while RR1000 and RR1300 experience a slow upward trend. The results of this study have important managerial implications for PT. ABC in formulating procurement strategies, warehouse optimization, and supply chain management. Components with increasing trends, such as CR315, CR370, and CR420, should be procurement priorities, while components with stable and declining trends, such as CR210, RR800, and RR1150, can be managed conservatively to reduce storage costs

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ARIMA, Forecasting, Pertambangan Andesit, Time Series, ARIMA, Forecasting, Andesite Mining, Time Series.
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T174 Technological forecasting T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.8 Productivity. Efficiency T Technology > TS Manufactures > TS161 Materials management. T Technology > TS Manufactures > TS167 Costs, Industrial
Divisions:	Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT)
Depositing User:	Zul Fahmi
Date Deposited:	23 Dec 2025 05:45
Last Modified:	23 Dec 2025 05:45
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/129127

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