Habibi, Habibi (2025) Pendekatan Digitalization-Centered Dalam Manajemen Risiko Kehilangan Logistik Dari FPSO Ke Kapal Tanker. Doctoral thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Proses pemindahan minyak mentah dari FPSO ke kapal tanker merupakan titik paling sensitif dalam rantai pasok migas lepas pantai. Seluruh produksi harian dikonsolidasikan pada satu titik operasi yang melibatkan banyak aktor operator FPSO, kapal tanker, dan koordinator logistik dalam lingkungan laut yang dinamis. Kombinasi kondisi teknis yang kompleks dan struktur relasi antar aktor yang tidak seimbang sering memicu timbulnya logistic loss, berupa kehilangan volume, penurunan kualitas, selisih pencatatan, atau ketidakefisienan operasional. Studi lapangan menunjukkan bahwa logistic loss dapat mencapai ratusan barel per siklus, dan akumulasinya mencapai jutaan dolar per tahun. Penelitian ini menyusun sebuah pendekatan integratif berupa Digitalization-Centered Approach, yang menggabungkan non-cooperative game theory untuk memetakan strategi, motif, dan perilaku para aktor, serta sistem digital berbasis sensor, real-time monitoring, automatic reporting, dan anomaly detection untuk mengurangi ketidakpastian informasi dan membatasi perilaku oportunistik. Pemodelan interaksi antar aktor menunjukkan bahwa tanpa transparansi digital, seluruh pihak cenderung memilih strategi defensif yang meningkatkan net cost dan mendorong sistem ke equilibrium yang tidak efisien. Digitalisasi menggeser struktur permainan menuju Nash Equilibrium yang kooperatif. Simulasi tiga skenario menunjukkan bahwa intervensi digital mampu menurunkan logistic loss dari 0,1% (±600 barel) menjadi 0,02% (±120 barel) per siklus, setara penghematan ±USD 43.000 per operasi. Prototipe digital berbasis ESP32, sensor ultrasonik, dan cloud integration diuji melalui simulasi real-time tank level, uji respons sensor, latensi komunikasi, dan deteksi anomali, menghasilkan akurasi >97% dan latency <1 detik. Sistem ini bukan hanya alat ukur, tetapi instrumen pembentuk perilaku: data yang transparan mengurangi moral hazard dan memperkuat koordinasi aktor. Pendekatan ini juga dikombinasikan dengan Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), yang menunjukkan bahwa human error, measurement dispute, dan sensor failure adalah risiko dominan. Integrasi FMEA dengan game-theoretic modeling memperlihatkan bahwa risiko teknis dan risiko perilaku saling memperkuat. Digitalisasi terbukti mampu menekan keduanya dengan menciptakan single source of truth (sumber data yang disepakati bersama). Penelitian ini menghasilkan kerangka utuh mitigasi logistic loss: analisis strategi aktor, pemetaan risiko teknis, dan validasi empiris melalui prototipe digital. Kontribusi teoretisnya adalah integrasi game theory–FMEA dalam konteks logistik laut; kontribusi metodologisnya adalah Digitalization-Centered Approach yang menjadikan teknologi sebagai mekanisme perubahan perilaku; sedangkan kontribusi aplikatifnya adalah rancangan sistem sensor dan dashboard yang siap diadopsi dalam operasi migas Indonesia. Digitalisasi muncul bukan hanya sebagai alat teknis, tetapi sebagai fondasi koordinasi strategis yang membentuk sistem logistik yang lebih efisien, transparan, dan andal
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The process of transferring crude oil from an FPSO to a tanker is the most sensitive point in the offshore oil and gas supply chain. All daily production is consolidated at a single point of operation, involving multiple actors—FPSO operators, tankers, and logistics coordinators—in a dynamic marine environment. The combination of complex technical conditions and unbalanced relationships between actors often triggers logistical losses, in the form of lost volume, quality degradation, discrepancies in recording, or operational inefficiencies. Field studies indicate that logistical losses can reach hundreds of barrels per cycle and accumulate to millions of dollars annually. This study develops an integrative approach called the Digitalization-Centered Approach, which combines non-cooperative game theory to map the strategies, motives, and behaviors of actors, along with sensor-based digital systems, real-time monitoring, automatic reporting, and anomaly detection to reduce information uncertainty and limit opportunistic behavior. Modeling of interactions between actors shows that without digital transparency, all parties tend to choose defensive strategies that increase net costs and push the system to an inefficient equilibrium. Digitalization shifts the game structure toward a cooperative Nash Equilibrium. Simulations of three scenarios showed that digital interventions were able to reduce logistics losses from 0.1% (±600 barrels) to 0.02% (±120 barrels) per cycle, equivalent to savings of ±USD 43,000 per operation. A digital prototype based on ESP32, ultrasonic sensors, and cloud integration was tested through real-time tank level simulations, sensor response tests, communication latency, and anomaly detection, resulting in accuracy >97% and latency <1 second. This system is not just a measuring tool, but a behavior-shaping instrument: transparent data reduces moral hazard and strengthens actor coordination. This approach was also combined with Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), which showed that human error, measurement disputes, and sensor failure were the dominant risks. The integration of FMEA with game-theoretic modeling showed that technical and behavioral risks were mutually reinforcing. Digitalization proved able to reduce both by creating a single source of truth (a mutually agreed-upon data source). This research produced a complete framework for logistics loss mitigation: actor strategy analysis, technical risk mapping, and empirical validation through a digital prototype. Its theoretical contribution is the integration of game theory–FMEA in the context of maritime logistics; its methodological contribution is the Digitalization-Centered Approach, which utilizes technology as a mechanism for behavioral change; while its applied contribution is the design of a sensor and dashboard system ready for adoption in Indonesian oil and gas operations. Digitalization emerges not merely as a technical tool, but as a foundation for strategic coordination that forms a more efficient, transparent, and reliable logistics system
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | FPSO, offloading, logistic loss, game theory, digitalization, Nash Equilibrium |
| Subjects: | V Naval Science > V Naval Science (General) |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Marine Engineering > 36001-(S3) PhD Theses |
| Depositing User: | Habibi Habibi |
| Date Deposited: | 23 Dec 2025 08:41 |
| Last Modified: | 23 Dec 2025 08:41 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/129133 |
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