Analisis Determinan Angka Pengangguran Di Jawa Timur Tahun 2018-2024.

Medina, Amadeus Tristan (2026) Analisis Determinan Angka Pengangguran Di Jawa Timur Tahun 2018-2024. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pada Provinsi Jawa Timur, pengangguran relatif rendah, tetapi tidak merata mengingat terdapat daerah dengan pengangguran tinggi dan daerah dengan perekonomian agraris memiliki banyak setengah pengangguran. Tantangan untuk Jawa Timur bukan hanya angka pengangguran. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi kondisi pengangguran di Jawa Timur. Penelitian ini menggunakan Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja (TPAK) sebagai indikator proksi untuk merepresentasikan tekanan dan respons pasar tenaga kerja terhadap perubahan kondisi ekonomi. Variabel independen yang digunakan meliputi Upah Minimum Regional (UMR), rata-rata lama sekolah, inflasi dan belanja pemerintah, variabel Investasi juga dipertimbangkan sebagai variabel kontrol. Analisis dilakukan pada sampel penuh serta sampel berdasarkan klasifikasi kesejahteraan masyarakat. Pada penelitian ini, penulis juga memasukkan variabel Dummy pada model robustness berupa daerah untuk menangkap perbedaan struktural antara kabupaten dan kota. Penulis menggunakan metode data panel dengan pendekatan Fixed Effect Model (FEM) untuk model utama dan Generalized Least Square (GLS) untuk model robustness. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pada model utama hanya UMR berpengaruh positif signifikan pada TPAK di Jawa Timur, sedangkan pada model robustness didapat bahwa inflasi, belanja pemerintah dan daerah berpengaruh signifikan terhadap TPAK. Pada model klasifikasi kesejahteraan didapat bahwa UMR dan belanja pemerintah signifikan terhadap TPAK untuk kelompok rendah, sedangkan hanya UMR yang signifikan pada klasifikasi menengah, kemudian pada kelompok tinggi hanya rata-rata lama sekolah yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap TPAK
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In East Java Province, unemployment is relatively low, but unevenly distributed, given that there are areas with high unemployment and areas with agrarian economies with many underemployed. The challenge for East Java is not only unemployment figures. This study aims to analyze the factors influencing unemployment conditions in East Java. This study uses the Labor Force Participation Rate (TPAK) as a proxy indicator to represent labor market pressures and responses to changing economic conditions. The independent variables used include the Regional Minimum Wage (UMR), average years of schooling, inflation, and government spending. Investment variables are also considered as control variables. The analysis was conducted on the full sample and samples based on community welfare classifications. In this study, the authors also included a dummy variable in the robustness model, namely region, to capture structural differences between districts and cities. The authors used a panel data method with a Fixed Effect Model (FEM) approach for the main model and Generalized Least Squares (GLS) for the robustness model. The results show that in the main model, only the UMR has a significant positive effect on TPAK in East Java, while in the robustness model, inflation, government spending, and regional spending significantly influence TPAK. In the welfare classification model, it was found that the UMR and government spending were significant for the TPAK for the low group, while only the UMR was significant in the middle classification, then in the high group only the average length of schooling had a significant effect on the TPAK

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Pengganguran, TPAK, UMR, Rata-rata Lama Sekolah, Inflasi, Belanja Pemerintah , Investasi.Unemployment, Labor Force Participation Rate, Minimum Wage, Means Year Of Schooling, Inflation, Government Spending, Investment.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation. Logistic regression analysis. H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Divisions:	Faculty of Business and Management Technology > Development Studies > 60201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Amadeus Tristan Medina
Date Deposited:	08 Jan 2026 04:01
Last Modified:	08 Jan 2026 04:01
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/129369

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