Analisis Penjadwalan Probabilistik Dengan Simulasi Metode Monte Carlo Pada Proyek Apartemen KYO Society

Patricia, Sania Putri (2022) Analisis Penjadwalan Probabilistik Dengan Simulasi Metode Monte Carlo Pada Proyek Apartemen KYO Society. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Lembaga riset konstruksi internasional, BSI Asia, dalam survey bertajuk Indonesia Construction Market Outlook 2022, menunjukkan bahwa prospek industri konstruksi pada tahun 2022 semakin membaik. Salah satu buktinya, yaitu pembangunan Proyek Apartemen Kyo Society di Kota Surabaya. Dalam pelaksanaan di lapangan, proyek tersebut mengalami kendala terkait kebisingan akibat pekerjaan yang dilaksanakan sehingga menyebabkan warga sekitar protes. Hal tersebut berpengaruh terhadap penjadwalan yang sudah dibuat oleh proyek, sehingga mengalami keterlambatan, karena penjadwalan yang dibuat tidak mempertimbangkan ketidakpastian. Oleh karena itu, ketidakpastian tersebut harus diukur, dan akhirnya mencegah kejadian keterlambatan pada proyek. Salah satu metode probabilistik yang digunakan adalah Simulasi Metode Monte Carlo. Tugas Akhir ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis penjadwalan probabilistik dengan Simulasi Metode Monte Carlo pada Proyek Apartemen Kyo Society. Pada penelitian dilakukan wawancara untuk mengetahui durasi optimis, most likely, dan pesimis; serta durasi aktual untuk setiap pekerjaan berdasarkan pendapat para expert. Setelah itu akan diiterasi menggunakan software Primavera Risk Analysis, untuk mendapatkan total durasi probabilistik dengan tingkat keyakinan 80%, dan akan dilakukan perbandingan antara total durasi probabilistik dan total durasi rencana terhadap total durasi aktual. Lalu dari hasil iterasi yang dilakukan juga akan dilakukan pendataan terkait item pekerjaan yang sering berada pada lintasan kritis dan memiliki rentang ketidakpastian yang besar. Berdasarkan penelitian yang sudah dilakukan didapatkan bahwa total durasi probabilistik dengan tingkat keyakinan 80% adalah 341 hari, lalu untuk total durasi rencana adalah 314 hari, jika dibandingkan dengan total durasi aktual, yaitu 337 hari; total durasi probabilistik memiliki selisih yang lebih kecil yaitu 4 hari. Lalu untuk 10 item pekerjaan teratas yang sering berada pada lintasan kritis dan memiliki rentang ketidakpastian yang besar, yaitu pekerjaan galian tahap 2, struktur P1, struktur lobby, kolom, galian tahap 3, struktur pondasi, GWT, STP, retainingwall, dan struktur pondasi (GWT).
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Construction Market Outlook 2022, shows that the prospects for the construction industry in 2022 are improving in line with the national economic recovery. One of the evidences of the increase is the construction of the Kyo Society Apartment Project in the city of Surabaya which is targeted to be completed in September 2023. In the implementation in the field, the project experienced noise-related problems due to the work carried out, causing local residents to protest. This greatly affects the scheduling that has been made by the project, so it will experience delays, because the scheduling made does not take into account the uncertainty. Therefore, such uncertainty must be measured, and ultimately prevent delay events on the project. One of the probabilistic methods that can be used is the Monte Carlo Method Simulation, which aims to find out the probability of project completion confidence according to the duration of the plan as well as knowing the total duration optimistic. This Final Project aims to analyze probabilistic scheduling with the Monte Carlo Method Simulation on the Kyo Society Apartment Project. In the study, interviews were conducted to determine the duration of optimism, most likely, and pessimistic; as well as the actual duration for each work based on the opinions of experts. After that, it will be iterated using Primavera Risk Analysis software, to obtain the total probabilistic duration with a confidence level of 80%, which will be a comparison between the total probabilistic and deterministic duration to the total actual duration. Then from the results of the iteration carried out, data collection will also be carried out related to work items that are often on a critical trajectory and have a large range of uncertainty. Based on the results of studies that have been carried out, it was found that the total duration of probabilistic with a confidence level of 80% is 341 days, then for the total planning duration is 314 days, when compared to the total actual duration, which is 337 days; the total duration of probabilistics has a smaller difference of 4 days. Then for the top 10 work items that are often on a critical trajectory and have a large range of uncertainty, namely stage 2 excavation work, P1 structure, lobby structure, column, stage 3 excavation, foundation structure, GWT, STP, retainingwall, and foundation structure (GWT).

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Penjadwalan Probabilistik, Proyek Apartemen, Simulasi Metode Monte Carlo, Apartment Project, Monte Carlo Simulation, Probabilistic Schedulling
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD1391 Apartment houses
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Civil Engineering > 22201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Mr. Marsudiyana -
Date Deposited:	14 Jan 2026 02:42
Last Modified:	14 Jan 2026 02:43
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/129588

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