Vinandita, Aliyah Mirzadiniyah (2026) Analisis Faktor-faktor yang Memengaruhi Angka Harapan Hidup di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur Menggunakan Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Angka Harapan Hidup (AHH) merupakan rata-rata perkiraan usia yang dapat dicapai oleh seseorang sejak lahir dan mencerminkan derajat kesehatan masyarakat. Indikator ini memiliki peran penting dalam pembangunan berkelanjutan karena relevan dengan Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) tujuan ketiga, yaitu Good Health and Well-Being. Pada tahun 2024, AHH Indonesia tercatat sebesar 74,15 tahun, sedangkan Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur masih berada di bawah angka nasional sebesar 71,83 tahun. Kabupaten Sabu Raijua memiliki AHH terendah sebesar 66,65 tahun, sementara Kota Kupang mencapai AHH tertinggi sebesar 74,95 tahun. Kondisi ini menunjukkan adanya disparitas pembangunan yang tidak merata. Daerah dengan fasilitas dan kondisi sosial-ekonomi yang lebih baik cenderung memiliki AHH lebih tinggi dibandingkan wilayah terpencil dengan akses terbatas. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder dari Publikasi Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur dalam Angka 2025 dan website resmi Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur dengan unit penelitian 22 kabupaten/kota. Variabel prediktor meliputi persentase penduduk umur 0-23 bulan (baduta) yang pernah diberi Air Susu Ibu (ASI), persentase rumah tangga dengan akses sanitasi yang layak, persentase tingkat pengangguran terbuka, dan angka melek huruf usia 15 tahun ke atas. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan regresi nonparametrik spline truncated karena hubungan antara AHH dan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhinya tidak membentuk pola linier tertentu. Pemilihan titik knot optimal ditentukan berdasarkan nilai Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) minimum. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa seluruh variabel prediktor berpengaruh signifikan terhadap AHH di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur dengan model regresi nonparametrik spline truncated terbaik diperoleh model tiga knot dengan nilai GCV minimum sebesar 1,023, koefisien determinasi sebesar 98,15%, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) sebesar 0,3%, dan Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) sebesar 0,28 tahun.
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Life expectancy is the average estimated age that a person can achieve from birth and reflects the overall health status of a population. This indicator has an important role in sustainable development as it is closely related to the third Sustainable Development Goal (SDGs), namely Good Health and Well-Being. In 2024, Indonesia’s life expectancy was recorded at 74.15 years, while East Nusa Tenggara Province remained below the national average at 71.83 years. Sabu Raijua Regency had the lowest life expectancy of 66.65 years, while Kupang City reached the highest at 74.95 years. This condition indicates unequal development disparities. Areas with better facilities and socio-economic conditions tend to have higher life expectancy compared to remote regions with limited access. This study employs secondary data from the publications East Nusa Tenggara Province in Figures 2025 and the official website of Badan Pusat Statistik of East Nusa Tenggara Province with 22 regencies/cities as the unit of analysis. The predictor variables include the percentage of population aged 0-23 months (children under two) who have ever been breastfed, the percentage of households with access to proper sanitation, the open unemployment rate, and the literacy rate of the population aged 15 years and over. The analysis is conducted using truncated spline nonparametric regression because the relationship between life expectancy and the factors influencing it does not follow a specific linear pattern. The selection of optimal knot points is determined based on the minimum value of Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). The results of the study indicate that all predictor variables have a significant effect on life expectancy in East Nusa Tenggara Province, and that the best truncated spline nonparametric regression model is the three-knot model with a minimum GCV value of 1.023, a coefficient of determination of 98.15%, a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.3%, and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.28 years.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Angka Harapan Hidup, Generalized Cross Validation, Nusa Tenggara Timur, Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated, East Nusa Tenggara, Generalized Cross Validation, Life Expectancy, Truncated Spline Nonparametric Regression |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA29 Theory and method of social science statistics H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.35 Analysis of variance H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation. Logistic regression analysis. H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.7 Estimation |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Vinandita Aliyah Mirzadiniyah |
| Date Deposited: | 27 Jan 2026 05:13 |
| Last Modified: | 27 Jan 2026 05:13 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/130444 |
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