Adaptasi Sistem Ketenagalistrikan Terhadap Risiko Banjir Akibat Perubahan Iklim di DAS Kapuas, Kalimantan Barat

Indradjanue, Khotimah Ratna (2026) Adaptasi Sistem Ketenagalistrikan Terhadap Risiko Banjir Akibat Perubahan Iklim di DAS Kapuas, Kalimantan Barat. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Perubahan iklim telah meningkatkan frekuensi dan intensitas kejadian hidrometeorologi ekstrem, khususnya banjir, yang berpotensi mengganggu keandalan sistem ketenagalistrikan. Provinsi Kalimantan Barat, dengan Daerah Aliran Sungai (DAS) Kapuas sebagai DAS terbesar, memiliki tingkat kerentanan tinggi terhadap banjir akibat curah hujan yang tinggi, dominasi wilayah dataran rendah, serta perubahan tata guna lahan. Infrastruktur ketenagalistrikan seperti jaringan transmisi dan gardu induk yang umumnya berada di sepanjang koridor sungai dan dataran banjir menjadi sangat rentan terhadap genangan, yang dapat memicu gangguan operasi, pemadaman listrik, peningkatan Energy Not Served (ENS), serta kerugian ekonomi. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan kajian berbasis risiko iklim untuk mendukung perencanaan adaptasi sistem ketenagalistrikan yang lebih tangguh terhadap dampak perubahan iklim. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji kondisi curah hujan historis dan proyeksi hingga tahun 2060, memetakan risiko banjir di DAS Kapuas, serta menilai dampaknya terhadap sistem ketenagalistrikan. Analisis curah hujan dilakukan menggunakan data satelit CHIRPS periode 2014–2024 dan data proyeksi iklim CMIP6 berdasarkan skenario SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, dan SSP5-8.5 periode 2026–2060. Pemetaan risiko banjir dilakukan secara spasial menggunakan pendekatan Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) dengan parameter curah hujan, kemiringan lahan, tutupan lahan, dan tekstur tanah. Selanjutnya, peta risiko banjir dilakukan overlay dengan infrastruktur transmisi dan gardu induk di DAS Kapuas untuk mengidentifikasi tingkat kerentanan. Perumusan prioritas strategi adaptasi dilakukan menggunakan integrasi metode SWOT dan Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa DAS Kapuas tetap berada pada kategori iklim sangat basah hingga tahun 2060, dengan jumlah hari hujan lebih dari 300 hari per tahun serta kecenderungan peningkatan intensitas hujan ekstrem, terutama pada skenario SSP5-8.5. Pemetaan risiko banjir memperlihatkan bahwa sebagian besar wilayah DAS Kapuas secara konsisten berada pada kategori risiko banjir tinggi hingga sangat tinggi, khususnya di wilayah hilir dan dataran rendah. Hasil overlay menunjukkan bahwa lebih dari 85% menara transmisi dan hampir seluruh gardu induk berada pada zona risiko banjir tinggi. Kondisi ini berimplikasi pada peningkatan potensi gangguan sistem, ENS, dan kerugian ekonomi dan berdampak pada lingkungan. Strategi adaptasi prioritas yang direkomendasikan meliputi penguatan standar desain teknis, integrasi risiko iklim dalam perencanaan aset ketenagalistrikan, serta peningkatan kesiapsiagaan dan respons operasional untuk meningkatkan ketahanan sistem ketenagalistrikan di DAS Kapuas.
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Climate change has intensified the frequency and magnitude of extreme hydrometeorological events, particularly flooding, posing significant risks to the reliability of electricity systems. West Kalimantan, with the Kapuas River Basin as the largest watershed in the region, is highly vulnerable to flooding due to high rainfall intensity, extensive lowland topography, and ongoing land-use changes. Critical electricity infrastructure, including transmission lines and substations, is predominantly located along river corridors and floodplains, increasing its exposure to inundation. These conditions may lead to operational disruptions, power outages, increased Energy Not Served (ENS), and substantial economic losses. Therefore, climate risk–based assessments are essential to support climate-resilient electricity infrastructure planning. This study aims to assess historical and projected rainfall conditions up to 2060, map flood risk in the Kapuas River Basin, and evaluate its impacts on the electricity system. Rainfall analysis was conducted using CHIRPS satellite data for the period 2014–2024 and CMIP6 climate projections under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the period 2026–2060. Flood risk mapping was performed using a Geographic Information System (GIS)–based Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) approach integrating rainfall, slope, land use, and soil texture parameters. The resulting flood risk maps were overlaid with electricity transmission and substation infrastructure to assess vulnerability levels. Adaptation strategies were formulated using an integrated SWOT analysis and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results indicate that the Kapuas River Basin will remain within a very wet climatic regime through 2060, with more than 300 rainy days per year and increasing rainfall intensity and variability, particularly under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario. Flood risk mapping reveals that large portions of the basin consistently fall into high to very high flood risk categories, especially in downstream and lowland areas. Infrastructur analysis shows that more than 85% of transmission towers and nearly all substations are located in high-risk flood zones. These conditions imply an increased likelihood of system disruptions, higher ENS values, and greater economic losses. Priority adaptation strategies include strengthening technical design standards, integrating climate risk into electricity asset planning, and enhancing operational preparedness to improve the resilience of the electricity system in the Kapuas River Basin.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	perubahan iklim, banjir, DAS Kapuas, ketenagalistrikan, adaptasi, climate change, flood risk, Kapuas River Basin, electricity system, adaptation
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences T Technology > TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering > TD171.75 Climate change mitigation T Technology > TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering > TD194.6 Environmental impact analysis
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Environmental, and Geo Engineering > Environmental Engineering > 25101-(S2) Master Theses
Depositing User:	Khotimah Ratna Indradjanue
Date Deposited:	27 Jan 2026 06:20
Last Modified:	27 Jan 2026 06:20
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/130453

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