Kajian Efektivitas Integrasi Adaptasi dan Mitigasi terhadap Dampak Iklim Ekstrem: Studi Kasus di Kebun Raya Mangrove Surabaya

Prasetyaningtyas, Dyan (2026) Kajian Efektivitas Integrasi Adaptasi dan Mitigasi terhadap Dampak Iklim Ekstrem: Studi Kasus di Kebun Raya Mangrove Surabaya. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

Text 6014241030-Master_Thesis.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (8MB) | Request a copy

Abstract

Perubahan iklim menyebabkan meningkatnya kerentanan kawasan pesisir terhadap abrasi, banjir rob, dan degradasi ekosistem. Upaya adaptasi dan mitigasi perubahan iklim di kawasan pesisir dapat dilakukan melalui berbagai aspek, mulai aspek teknis, sosial, hingga kelembagaan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk (1) mengkaji efektivitas integrasi aksi adaptasi dan mitigasi di kawasan Kebun Raya Mangrove Surabaya (KRMS); (2) menentukan prioritas indikator yang mempengaruhi efektivitas integrasi aksi adaptasi dan mitigasi; serta (3) merumuskan strategi pengelolaan adaptif berbasis ekosistem secara terpadu di kawasan konservasi pesisir
Metode penelitian menggunakan pendekatan campuran kuantitatif dan kualitatif. Analisis spasial menggunakan indeks vegetasi NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) untuk mengukur perubahan tutupan mangrove dan kondisi ekologis dari tahun 2015 hingga 2025. Analisis persepsi pakar dilakukan menggunakan Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) terhadap tiga aspek utama: teknis, sosial, dan kelembagaan. Sedangkan persepsi masyarakat dianalisis menggunakan Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) berbasis data kuesioner Likert lima skala.
Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa nilai NDVI meningkat dari tahun 2015 ke tahun 2025, menandakan keberhasilan rehabilitasi vegetasi dan peningkatan kualitas ekosistem. Hasil AHP menunjukkan prioritas tertinggi pada aspek sosial (bobot 0,3712), diikuti aspek teknis (0,3228) dan kelembagaan (0,3059). Hasil SEM memperlihatkan bahwa aspek kelembagaan (β = 0,557; p < 0,001) dan teknis (β = 0,251; p = 0,0079) berpengaruh signifikan terhadap efektivitas integrasi adaptasi–mitigasi, sedangkan aspek sosial belum signifikan. Integrasi kedua analisis tersebut menghasilkan strategi pengelolaan adaptif yang menekankan penguatan tata kelola kelembagaan, peningkatan literasi ekologis masyarakat, serta pemanfaatan hasil riset untuk mendukung kebijakan berbasis sains. Secara keseluruhan, penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa efektivitas integrasi aksi adaptasi dan mitigasi di KRMS bergantung pada sinergi aspek teknis, sosial, dan kelembagaan. Penguatan tata kelola berbasis kolaborasi (pemerintah, komunitas pesisir dan stake holder lainnya), edukasi lingkungan, serta pengelolaan karbon biru menjadi kunci dalam mewujudkan kawasan konservasi pesisir yang adaptif dan berkelanjutan.
Kata kunci: adaptasi dan mitigasi, perubahan iklim, kebun raya mangrove, NDVI, AHP, SEM, pengelolaan pesisir berkelanjutan.
========================================================================================================================
Climate change has increased the vulnerability of coastal zones to erosion, tidal flooding, and ecosystem degradation. Efforts to adapt and mitigate climate change in coastal areas can be carried out through various aspects, starting from technical, social, to institutional aspects. This study aims to: (1) assessing the effectiveness of integrating adaptation and mitigation actions in the Surabaya Mangrove Botanical Gardens (KRMS) area; (2) determining priority indicators that influence the effectiveness of integrating adaptation and mitigation actions; and (3) formulating an integrated ecosystem-based adaptive management strategy in the coastal conservation area.
A mixed-method approach combining quantitative and qualitative analyses was applied. Spatial analysis utilized the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to measure changes in mangrove cover and ecological condition from 2015 to 2025. Expert perceptions were analyzed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), focusing on three main aspects: technical, social, and institutional. Community perceptions were assessed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) based on a five-point Likert-scale questionnaire.
The results indicate that NDVI values increased from 2015 to 2025, reflecting successful mangrove rehabilitation and ecosystem improvement. The AHP analysis identified the social aspect as the top priority (weight = 0.3712), followed by technical (0.3228) and institutional (0.3059) aspects. The SEM analysis showed that the institutional aspect (β = 0.557; p < 0.001) and the technical aspect (β = 0.251; p = 0.0079) had significant effects on the perceived effectiveness of adaptation–mitigation integration, while the social aspect was not statistically significant. The integration of AHP and SEM results produced an adaptive management strategy emphasizing institutional governance strengthening, ecological literacy improvement, and the use of scientific research to support evidence-based climate policies. Overall, the effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation integration in KRMS depends on the synergy among technical, social, and institutional dimensions. Strengthening collaboration-based governance (government, coastal communities and other stakeholders), environmental education, and blue carbon management are key to realizing adaptive and sustainable coastal conservation areas..
Keywords: adaptation and mitigation, climate change, mangrove botanical garden, NDVI, AHP, SEM, sustainable coastal management.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	adaptasi dan mitigasi, perubahan iklim, kebun raya mangrove, NDVI, AHP, SEM, pengelolaan pesisir berkelanjutan, adaptation and mitigation, climate change, mangrove botanical garden, NDVI, AHP, SEM, sustainable coastal management
Subjects:	T Technology > TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering > TD171.75 Climate change mitigation
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning > Environment Engineering > 25101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Dyan Prasetyaningtyas
Date Deposited:	27 Jan 2026 06:31
Last Modified:	27 Jan 2026 06:31
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/130630

Actions (login required)

View Item