Karakteristik Precipitable Water Vapor Ketika Terjadi Fenomena Mesoscale Convective System Menggunakan Satelit GNSS DAN Model Era-5

Firdianto, Prasetyo (2026) Karakteristik Precipitable Water Vapor Ketika Terjadi Fenomena Mesoscale Convective System Menggunakan Satelit GNSS DAN Model Era-5. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Benua Maritim Indonesia dengan aktivitas konveksi kuat memicu pembentukan awan yang dapat berevolusi dan berkembang menjadi sistem dalam skala meso berupa MCS (Mesoscale Convective System). MCS menjadi pemicu terjadinya cuaca ekstrem, termasuk pada tanggal 15-18 Januari 2013 dan 3-4 Maret 2025 yang mengakibatkan rumah terendam, masyarakat mengungsi, dan korban jiwa di Jabodetabek. Data yang digunakan adalah curah hujan observasi, Tb Satelit Geostasioner, Presipitasi Satelit GPM, Rinex GNSS, Kelembaban Spesifik ERA5, Tb Satelit MTSAT-2, dan Tb Satelit Himawari-9. Identifikasi fenomena MCS menggunakan model PyFLEXTRKR berdasarkan karakteristik fisis klaster awan. Penentuan PWV memanfaatkan nilai tropospheric delay sinyal GNSS dan perhitungan kelembaban spesifik pada 37 pressure level data reanalysis ERA5. Kanal Water Vapor pada Satelit GMS Series dimanfaatkan dalam menentukan anomali Tb Upper-level Moisture ketika periode MCS. Tahap analisis menggunakan korelasi pearson dalam menentukan hubungan antar parameter. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa fenomena MCS sangat mempengaruhi PWV. Perubahan PWV dapat teramati dengan baik menggunakan Satelit GNSS, namun kurang representatif menggunakan Model ERA-5. PWV mempunyai pola kenaikan dan penurunan mengikuti jarak MCS terhadap pengamat. Karakteristik dampak MCS dapat mengakibatkan curah hujan dengan intensitas hingga sangat lebat. Selain itu, Tb Upper-level Moisture Satelit Himawari dapat mempresentasikan terjadinya fenomena MCS, namun berbanding terbalik dengan nilai PWV.
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The Indonesian Maritime Continent, characterized by intense convective activity, promotes the formation of clouds that can evolve and develop into mesoscale systems known as Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs). MCS is a trigger for extreme weather, including on January 15-18, 2013 and March 3-4, 2025, which resulted in flooded houses, evacuation of residents, and loss of life in Jabodetabek. This study utilizes multiple datasets, including surface rainfall observations, geostationary satellite brightness temperature (Tb), GPM satellite precipitation, GNSS RINEX data, ERA5 specific humidity, MTSAT-2 Tb, and Himawari-9 Tb observations. MCS events were identified using the PyFLEXTRKR algorithm based on the physical characteristics of cloud clusters. Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) was estimated from GNSS tropospheric signal delays and from ERA5 reanalysis specific humidity profiles at 37 pressure levels. Water vapor channels from the GMS satellite series were employed to examine upper-level moisture Tb anomalies during MCS periods. Pearson correlation analysis was applied to assess the relationships among the investigated parameters. The results indicate that MCS activity exerts a strong influence on PWV variability. PWV variations are well captured by GNSS observations but are less representatively depicted by the ERA5 model. PWV exhibits systematic increases and decreases corresponding to the distance between the MCS and the observation site. The impact of MCSs is characterized by rainfall intensities reaching very heavy levels. Furthermore, brightness temperature upper-level moisture derived from Himawari satellites effectively represents the occurrence of MCS events, although it shows an inverse relationship with PWV values.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	PWV, MCS, GNSS, ERA-5, Jabodetabek
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.5.I4 Remote sensing
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Geomatics Engineering > 29101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Prasetyo Umar Firdianto
Date Deposited:	28 Jan 2026 01:54
Last Modified:	28 Jan 2026 01:54
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/130683

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