Analisis Dampak Perubahan Iklim Terhadap Ketersediaan Air Pada PLTA Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage

Pramana, Rendi (2026) Analisis Dampak Perubahan Iklim Terhadap Ketersediaan Air Pada PLTA Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Perubahan iklim berpotensi meningkatkan variabilitas hidrologi dan frekuensi kejadian debit rendah yang dapat memengaruhi keandalan operasi PLTA Pumped Storage Upper Cisokan (UCPS) sebagai infrastruktur ketenagalistrikan strategis. Ketidakpastian ketersediaan air tidak hanya berdampak pada kinerja teknis pembangkitan, tetapi juga pada manfaat lingkungan berupa pengurangan emisi dan kelayakan finansial proyek, serta keterkaitannya dengan pemanfaatan sumber daya air untuk sektor lain. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak perubahan iklim terhadap ketersediaan air UCPS, mengevaluasi implikasinya terhadap aspek teknis, lingkungan, dan finansial, serta merumuskan strategi adaptasi pengelolaan air yang paling prioritas.Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan pemodelan iklim–hidrologi terpadu. Proyeksi curah hujan masa depan diperoleh dari model iklim CMIP6 dengan SSP245 sebagai skenario utama dan SSP585 sebagai stress test, yang telah dikoreksi bias terhadap data observasi. Simulasi hidrologi dilakukan untuk menganalisis debit inflow menggunakan flow duration curve, keandalan aliran bulanan, durasi aliran rendah, serta dinamika volume tampungan aktif. Evaluasi ketersediaan air menggunakan ambang batas debit tetap sebesar 0,75 m³/s, yang terdiri dari debit lingkungan (0,55 m³/s) dan kehilangan air akibat evaporasi (0,20 m³/s). Dampak perubahan iklim selanjutnya dievaluasi terhadap kinerja teknis pembangkitan, manfaat lingkungan berupa avoided emissions, serta kelayakan finansial proyek. Strategi adaptasi dirumuskan menggunakan analisis SWOT yang dipadukan dengan metode Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) dan Weighted Sum Model (WSM).Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pada skenario utama SSP245 (2029–2054) terjadi peningkatan frekuensi dan durasi kejadian debit rendah, terutama pada periode kemarau dan peralihan musim. Meskipun demikian, ketahanan hidrologi sistem masih relatif terjaga, dengan volume tampungan aktif tidak pernah turun di bawah 90%. Dampak perubahan iklim tercermin pada meningkatnya variabilitas kinerja UCPS, namun penurunan kinerja masih terbatas, dengan energi pembangkitan minimum sekitar 2,26 TWh (±99,5% dari kondisi ideal) dan avoided emissions minimum sekitar 1,97 juta ton CO₂ per tahun (±99,4%). Sebagai pembanding, pada skenario SSP585 sebagai stress test, volume tampungan aktif dapat turun hingga 62,89%, yang berdampak pada penurunan energi pembangkitan hingga sekitar 2,16 TWh (±94,9%) dan avoided emissions hingga sekitar 1,88 juta ton CO₂ per tahun (±94,9%), menunjukkan meningkatnya risiko operasional pada kondisi iklim ekstrem. Temuan ini menegaskan perlunya respons adaptif yang terarah, dengan Operasi Adaptif Berbasis Sistem Informasi Terintegrasi sebagai strategi prioritas, didukung oleh konservasi DAS berbasis alam dan pengelolaan sumber daya air berbasis infrastruktur untuk memperkuat ketahanan sistem jangka menengah dan panjang.
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Climate change has the potential to increase hydrological variability and the frequency of low-flow events, which may affect the operational reliability of the Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage Hydropower Plant (UCPS) as a strategic electricity infrastructure. Uncertainty in water availability influences not only the technical performance of power generation but also environmental benefits in terms of emission reduction, the financial viability of the project, and its interaction with water resource utilization for other sectors. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the impacts of climate change on UCPS water availability, evaluate the associated implications for technical, environmental, and financial aspects, and formulate prioritized water management adaptation strategies.This research adopts an integrated climate–hydrological modeling approach. Future precipitation projections are derived from CMIP6 climate models, with SSP2-4.5 (SSP245) as the main scenario and SSP5-8.5 (SSP585) as a stress-test scenario, both of which are bias-corrected against observational data. Hydrological simulations are conducted to analyze inflow characteristics using flow duration curves, monthly flow reliability, low-flow duration, and active storage volume dynamics. Water availability is evaluated using a fixed discharge threshold of 0.75 m³/s, consisting of an environmental flow requirement (0.55 m³/s) and evaporation losses (0.20 m³/s). The impacts of climate change are further assessed in terms of technical generation performance, environmental benefits measured as avoided emissions, and project financial feasibility. Adaptation strategies are formulated through a SWOT analysis integrated with the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Weighted Sum Model (WSM).The results indicate that under the main SSP245 scenario for the period 2029–2054, the frequency and duration of low-flow events increase, particularly during the dry season and transitional periods. Nevertheless, the hydrological resilience of the system remains relatively well maintained, as active storage volumes never fall below 90%. Climate change impacts are reflected in increased variability in UCPS performance; however, overall performance degradation remains limited, with minimum annual energy generation of approximately 2.26 TWh (±99.5% of the ideal condition) and minimum avoided emissions of about 1.97 million tons of CO₂ per year (±99.4%). In contrast, under the SSP585 stress-test scenario, active storage volumes may decline to as low as 62.89%, resulting in a reduction in energy generation to approximately 2.16 TWh (±94.9%) and avoided emissions to around 1.88 million tons of CO₂ per year (±94.9%), indicating a substantially higher operational risk under extreme climate conditions. These findings highlight the need for a targeted adaptive response, with Adaptive Operation Based on an Integrated Information System identified as the priority strategy, supported by nature-based watershed conservation and infrastructure-based water resource management to enhance medium- and long-term system resilience.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	perubahan iklim, pumped storage, ketersediaan air, kekeringan, strategi adaptasi, PLTA Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage, climate change, pumped storage, water availability, drought, adaptation strategy, Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage Hydropower Plant
Subjects:	T Technology > TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering > TD171.75 Climate change mitigation
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Environmental Engineering > 25101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Rendi Pramana
Date Deposited:	28 Jan 2026 01:56
Last Modified:	28 Jan 2026 01:56
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/130711

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