Pemodelan Rasio Utang Luar Negeri dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia dengan Pendekatan Persamaan Simultan

Nurfajriyani, Nurfajriyani (2026) Pemodelan Rasio Utang Luar Negeri dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia dengan Pendekatan Persamaan Simultan. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Dalam upaya mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan, Indonesia memanfaatkan pembiayaan eksternal melalui utang luar negeri (ULN). ULN berperan sebagai salah satu sumber pendanaan dalam mendukung pembangunan, stabilitas ekonomi, serta aktivitas investasi. Hubungan antara ULN dan pertumbuhan ekonomi bersifat timbal balik, ULN dapat mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui tambahan pembiayaan dan investasi, tetapi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih baik dapat meningkatkan kapasitas pembiayaan domestik sehingga mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap pembiayaan eksternal. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan antara utang luar negeri dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia menggunakan pendekatan persamaan simultan Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS), serta mempertimbangkan peran variabel makroekonomi. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa selama periode 1990-2024, rasio utang luar negeri dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia berfluktuasi dan sangat dipengaruhi oleh guncangan eksternal, terutama saat terjadi krisis ekonomi dan pandemi Covid-19. Hasil estimasi 2SLS menunjukkan adanya hubungan simultan antara rasio utang luar negeri dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap rasio utang luar negeri, sedangkan rasio utang luar negeri berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Rasio utang luar negeri juga dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh rasio utang periode sebelumnya, suku bunga riil, dan rasio cadangan devisa. Sementara itu, pertumbuhan ekonomi, dipengaruhi secara signifikan, oleh rasio PMA, inflasi dan kondisi krisis. Secara keseluruhan, model mampu menjelaskan variasi rasio utang luar negeri sebesar 93,4% dan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 80,5%.
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In an effort to promote sustainable economic growth, Indonesia utilizes external financing through external debt. External debt plays an important role as a source of funding to support development, economic stability, and investment activities. The relationship between external debt and economic growth is reciprocal: external debt can stimulate economic growth through additional financing and investment, while stronger economic growth can enhance domestic financing capacity and thereby reduce dependence on external financing. This study aims to analyze the relationship between external debt and Indonesia’s economic growth using a simultaneous equations approach with the Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method, while considering the role of macroeconomic variables. The results indicate that during the period 1990–2024, Indonesia’s external debt ratio and economic growth exhibited fluctuations and were strongly influenced by external shocks, particularly during economic crises and the Covid-19 pandemic. The 2SLS estimation results show the existence of a simultaneous relationship between the external debt ratio and economic growth. Economic growth has a negative and significant effect on the external debt ratio, while the external debt ratio has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. The external debt ratio is also significantly influenced by the previous period’s debt ratio, the real interest rate, and the foreign exchange reserves ratio. Meanwhile, economic growth is significantly influenced by the foreign direct investment (FDI) ratio, inflation, and crisis conditions. Overall, the model is able to explain 93.4% of the variation in the external debt ratio and 80.5% of the variation in economic growth.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Persamaan Simultan, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) Utang Luar Negeri, Economic Growth, External Debt, Simultaneous Equation, Two Stage Least Square (2SLS)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA29 Theory and method of social science statistics H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation. Logistic regression analysis. H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.7 Estimation H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA276 Mathematical statistics. Time-series analysis. Failure time data analysis. Survival analysis (Biometry) Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA401 Mathematical models.
Divisions:	Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics
Depositing User:	Nurfajriyani Nurfajriyani
Date Deposited:	28 Jan 2026 06:45
Last Modified:	28 Jan 2026 06:45
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/130789

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