Analisis Karakteristik Petir Dan Hubungannya Terhadap Curah Hujan Serta Tutupan Lahan Dan Elevasi Di Kabupaten Karimun

Putra, Ilham Syarief (2026) Analisis Karakteristik Petir Dan Hubungannya Terhadap Curah Hujan Serta Tutupan Lahan Dan Elevasi Di Kabupaten Karimun. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Kabupaten Karimun sebagai wilayah kepulauan tropis menghadapi ancaman serius dari aktivitas petir tinggi yang tidak hanya membahayakan keselamatan jiwa, tetapi juga kerap mengganggu infrastruktur vital kelistrikan dan telekomunikasi. Studi ini bertujuan menganalisis karakteristik dan memprediksi zona bahaya petir menggunakan model Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt ) dengan mengintegrasikan 82.795 data sambaran periode 2022–2024 dan variabel lingkungan. Hasil pemodelan menunjukkan kinerja prediktif yang baik (AUC 0,654), di mana curah hujan teridentifikasi sebagai faktor dominan dengan kontribusi 79,1%, diikuti tutupan lahan (12,1%) dan elevasi (8,8%). Secara spasial, 60% kejadian petir terkonsentrasi di wilayah dataran rendah (0–22 mdpl) pada area semak, meskipun korelasi statistik dengan curah hujan bulanan tergolong lemah (R² ≈ 0). Pola diurnal menunjukkan puncak aktivitas petir terjadi pada sore hari (13.00–18.59), dengan zona risiko tinggi terpusat di Kecamatan Kundur, Kundur Utara, Kundur Barat, Buru, dan Karimun. Temuan ini menyediakan dasar ilmiah yang krusial bagi perumusan strategi mitigasi risiko petir di wilayah kepulauan.
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Karimun Regency, as a tropical archipelago region, faces serious threats from high lightning activity, which not only endangers human safety but also frequently disrupts vital electricity and telecommunication infrastructure. This study aims to analyze the characteristics and predict lightning hazard zones using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt ) model by integrating 82,795 lightning strike data points from the 2022–2024 period with environmental variables. The modeling results demonstrated good predictive performance (AUC 0.654), identifying rainfall as the dominant factor with a contribution of 79.1%, followed by land cover (12.1%) and elevation (8.8%). Spatially, 60% of lightning events were concentrated in lowland areas (0–22 masl) within shrublands, despite a relatively weak statistical correlation with monthly rainfall (R² ≈ 0). Diurnal patterns indicated that peak lightning activity occurred in the afternoon (13:00–18:59), with high-risk zones concentrated in the districts of Kundur, North Kundur, West Kundur, Buru, and Karimun. These findings provide a crucial scientific basis for formulating lightning risk mitigation strategies in archipelago regions.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Analisis Spasial; Curah Hujan; MaxEnt ; Petir; Zona Bahaya. Spatial Analysis; Rainfall; MaxEnt ; Lightning; Danger Zone.
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.212 ArcGIS. Geographic information systems. G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.217 Geospatial data G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.5.I4 Remote sensing
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning > Geomatics Engineering > 29101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Ilham Syarief Putra
Date Deposited:	29 Jan 2026 04:36
Last Modified:	29 Jan 2026 04:36
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/130981

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