Analisis Pengaruh Variabel terhadap Biaya Abandonment and Site Restoration (ASR) pada Anjungan Lepas Pantai menggunakan Pemodelan System Dynamics

Faturrachman, Alfian (2026) Analisis Pengaruh Variabel terhadap Biaya Abandonment and Site Restoration (ASR) pada Anjungan Lepas Pantai menggunakan Pemodelan System Dynamics. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Kegiatan Abandonment and Site Restoration (ASR) pada anjungan lepas pantai merupakan kewajiban pasca-operasi yang memiliki tingkat kompleksitas tinggi akibat interaksi dinamis antara faktor teknis, logistik dan operasional yang secara langsung membentuk struktur biaya, dengan durasi pelaksanaan berperan sebagai pengendali utama akumulasi biaya. Meningkatnya jumlah anjungan yang memasuki akhir masa operasi, keterbatasan kapasitas shorebase serta ketidakpastian kondisi lingkungan menuntut pendekatan analitis yang mampu merepresentasikan perilaku biaya ASR secara sistemik. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh variabel terhadap biaya ASR serta mengidentifikasi variabel dominan menggunakan pendekatan System Dynamics. Metode penelitian diawali dengan klasterisasi anjungan lepas pantai dan shorebase menggunakan gravity-based clustering berdasarkan parameter jarak, kedalaman perairan, jumlah leg, kapasitas shorebase dan keterbatasan waktu operasional, yang digunakan sebagai dasar pengembangan model System Dynamics melalui Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) dan Stock–Flow Diagram (SFD). Model kemudian disimulasikan pada beberapa skenario, yaitu base case, skenario kenaikan harga BBM sebesar 5%, serta skenario kondisi cuaca buruk yang menyebabkan keterlambatan pelaksanaan selama 14 hari, dengan struktur biaya dan unit rate mengacu pada standar Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE), PTK-040 SKK Migas, dan Peraturan Menteri ESDM Nomor 1 Tahun 2011. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa total biaya ASR pada base case sebesar USD 32,61 juta, meningkat secara linier menjadi USD 34,17 juta (±4,8%) pada skenario kenaikan harga BBM, dan meningkat signifikan menjadi USD 43,07 juta pada skenario keterlambatan akibat kondisi cuaca buruk. Meskipun biaya ASR didominasi oleh aktivitas decommissioning dan penggunaan peralatan utama seperti Crane and Barge Spread 2000, Anchor Handling Tug Supply (AHTS) dan lifting tool, hasil penelitian menegaskan bahwa durasi pelaksanaan merupakan variabel dominan yang mengendalikan eskalasi biaya ASR, sehingga pengendalian durasi dan mitigasi risiko keterlambatan menjadi kunci utama dalam strategi optimasi biaya ASR dengan rekomendasi penambahan shorebase baru atau peningkatan kapasitas shorebase eksisting.
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Abandonment and Site Restoration (ASR) activities on offshore platforms were post-operational obligations with high complexity due to dynamic interactions between technical, logistical and operational factors that directly affected cost structures, with implementation duration acting as the main driver of cost accumulation. This study aimed to analyze the influence of key variables on ASR costs and identify dominant variables using a System Dynamics approach. Offshore platforms and shorebases were clustered using gravity-based clustering based on distance, water depth, jacket leg, shorebase capacity and operational time constraints, which formed the basis for model development using Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD) and Stock–Flow Diagrams (SFD). The model was simulated under three scenarios, namely a base case, a 5% fuel price increase scenario, and a bad weather scenario causing a 14-day implementation delay, with cost structures and unit rates referring to standards from the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE), PTK-040 SKK Migas, and the Regulation of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Number 12 of 2011. The simulation results showed that total ASR costs were USD 32.61 million in the base case, increased to USD 34.17 million (4.8%) under the fuel price increase scenario, and rose significantly to USD 43.07 million (24.29%) under the delay scenario caused by adverse weather conditions. Although ASR costs were dominated by decommissioning activities and the use of key equipment such as cranes, barges, Anchor Handling Tug Supply (AHTS) vessels and lifting tools. The results confirmed that implementation duration was the dominant variable controlling cost escalation, indicating that controlling implementation duration and mitigating delay risks were the main strategies for optimizing ASR costs. Based on these findings, the study also indicated that in clusters with a high number of platforms and intensive ASR activities, the limited capacity of existing shorebases could lead to operational bottlenecks; therefore, the development of additional shorebases or the expansion of existing shorebase capacities was required to maintain logistical efficiency, control implementation duration, and mitigate ASR cost escalation.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Abandonment and Site Restoration (ASR), Anjungan Lepas Pantai, System Dynamics, Cost Analysis, Decommissioning. Abandonment and Site Restoration (ASR), Offshore platforms, System Dynamics, Cost Analysis, Decommissioning.
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T56.8 Project Management T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.83 Dynamic programming T Technology > TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering > TC1680 Offshore structures V Naval Science > V Naval Science (General) > V220 Naval ports, bases, reservations, docks, etc.
Divisions:	Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Marine Engineering > 36101-(S2) Master Theses
Depositing User:	Alfian Faturrachman
Date Deposited:	30 Jan 2026 06:42
Last Modified:	30 Jan 2026 06:42
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/131289

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