Analisis Data Pola Musim Di Indonesia Menggunakan Data Equivalent Water Height (EWH) Dari Satelit GRACE

Taufiq, Muhammad (2026) Analisis Data Pola Musim Di Indonesia Menggunakan Data Equivalent Water Height (EWH) Dari Satelit GRACE. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Indonesia sebagai negara dengan iklim tropis, memiliki pola curah hujan yang sangat dipengaruhi oleh dinamika atmosfer global dan lokal. Karakteristik zona musim di Indonesia, yang meliputi musim hujan, musim kemarau, dan musim transisi, memainkan peran penting dalam pengelolaan sumber daya air, pertanian, dan mitigasi bencana. Untuk memahami dinamika atmosfer dan hidrologi yang kompleks ini, parameter klimatologi seperti Equivalent Water Height (EWH) menjadi indikator kunci. Produk reanalisis seperti ERA-5, yang dihasilkan oleh European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), CPC dan CHIRPS menawarkan data resolusi tinggi yang dapat digunakan untuk memetakan variabilitas temporal dan spasial. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi akurasi data EWH terhadap zona musim di Indonesia. Pendekatan yang digunakan melibatkan validasi data ERA-5, CPC dan CHIRPS, dan data satelit GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) yang kemudian diresampling untuk menyamakan perbedaaan skala spasial antar masing-masing dataset dan mengetahui hubungan EWH terhadap ENSO. Hasil pengolahan EWH divalidasi terhadap data model CHIRPS, ERA-5 dan CPC menggunakan parameter statistik seperti korelasi, RMSE, MAE. Hasil menunjukkan EWH mampu merepresentasikan pola musiman curah hujan dengan akurasi tinggi pada model CHIRPS (r =0,72; RMSE=7,4; MAE=5.8), ERA-5 (r =0,65; RMSE=6,1; MAE=4,6) dan CPC (r =0,58; RMSE=13,6; MAE=10,9), Perbedaan ini mengindikasikan bahwa presipitasi observasional berbasis satelit–stasiun (CHIRPS) lebih mampu menangkap sinyal masukan air yang berkontribusi langsung terhadap penyimpanan air daratan dibandingkan produk reanalisis lainnya. variabilitas EWH sangat dipengaruhi oleh dinamika ENSO dengan jeda waktu respons antara beberapa bulan hingga hampir satu tahun. Secara keseluruhan, data EWH terbukti efisien, dan memiliki akurasi yang cukup tinggi untuk melakukan prediksi pola musim jangka panjang di wilayah Indonesia.
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Indonesia, as a country with a tropical climate, exhibits rainfall patterns that are strongly influenced by both global and local atmospheric dynamics. The characteristics of seasonal zones in Indonesia, which include the wet season, dry season, and transitional periods, play a crucial role in water resource management, agriculture, and disaster mitigation. To understand these complex atmospheric and hydrological dynamics, climatological parameters such as Equivalent Water Height (EWH) serve as key indicators. Reanalysis products such as ERA5, produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), as well as CPC and CHIRPS, provide high-resolution data that can be used to map temporal and spatial variability. This study aims to evaluate the accuracy of EWH data across seasonal zones in Indonesia. The approach involves validating ERA5, CPC, and CHIRPS datasets against GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite data, which are subsequently resampled to harmonize spatial scale differences among datasets and to examine the relationship between EWH and ENSO. The processed EWH data are validated against CHIRPS, ERA5, and CPC models using statistical parameters such as correlation, RMSE, and MAE. The results indicate that EWH can represent seasonal rainfall patterns with high accuracy, particularly in the CHIRPS model (r = 0,72; RMSE = 7,4; MAE = 5,8), followed by ERA5 (r = 0,65; RMSE = 6,1; MAE = 4,6) and CPC (r = 0,58; RMSE = 13,6; MAE = 10,9). These differences suggest that satellite station based observational precipitation data (CHIRPS) are more effective in capturing water input signals that directly contribute to terrestrial water storage compared to other reanalysis products. Furthermore, EWH variability is strongly influenced by ENSO dynamics, with response time lags ranging from several months to nearly one year. Overall, EWH data have proven to be efficient and sufficiently accurate for long-term seasonal pattern prediction in the Indonesian region.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	CHIRPS, CPC, Equivalent Water Height, ERA-5 EWH, Zona Musim Indonesia CHIRPS, CPC, Equivalent Water Height, ERA-5, Indonesia Season Zone
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.217 Geospatial data G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.5.I4 Remote sensing
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Geomatics Engineering > 29101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Muhammad Taufiq
Date Deposited:	30 Jan 2026 11:24
Last Modified:	30 Jan 2026 11:24
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/131440

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