Pemodelan Transaksi Alat Pembayaran Menggunakan Kartu Dan E-Money Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia: Studi Empiris Pasca-Pandemi Covid-19

Ayu, Nur Fitri Mustika (2026) Pemodelan Transaksi Alat Pembayaran Menggunakan Kartu Dan E-Money Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia: Studi Empiris Pasca-Pandemi Covid-19. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

Text 2043221042-Undegraduate-Thesis.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (2MB) | Request a copy

Abstract

Inflasi merupakan indikator makroekonomi penting yang memengaruhi stabilitas ekonomi. Seiring perkembangan sistem pembayaran, terjadi pergeseran dari instrumen berbasis kertas menuju transaksi digital seperti Alat Pembayaran Menggunakan Kartu (APMK) dan emoney yang lebih efisien dan praktis. Pandemi Covid-19 turut mempercepat adopsi pembayaran non-tunai di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh nilai transaksi dan jumlah kartu APMK serta e-money terhadap inflasi menggunakan Error Correction Model (ECM) untuk melihat hubungan jangka pendek dan panjang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa selama periode Januari 2021 hingga Juni 2025, inflasi berfluktuasi dalam rentang yang relatif terkendali, sementara penggunaan e-money dan Alat Pembayaran Menggunakan Kartu (APMK) meningkat dengan pola pertumbuhan yang tidak linear seiring pemulihan ekonomi pascapandemi. Dalam jangka panjang, jumlah kartu e-money serta jumlah kartu ATM dan ATM+debet, termasuk pengaruh kuadratiknya, terbukti berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi, sedangkan dalam jangka pendek hanya jumlah kartu e-money yang menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan. Nilai koreksi ketidakseimbangan inflasi sebesar 25,8% per bulan menunjukkan adanya mekanisme penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang, sementara sisanya terkoreksi secara bertahap pada periode berikutnya. Koefisien determinasi sebesar 0,216 mengindikasikan bahwa sebesar 21,6% variasi perubahan inflasi dapat dijelaskan oleh model, sedangkan sisanya dipengaruhi oleh faktor lain di luar model.
=======================================================================================================================================
Inflation is an important macroeconomic indicator that influences economic stability. Along with the development of payment systems, there has been a shift from paper-based instruments toward digital transactions such as Card-Based Payment Instruments (CBPI) and e-money, which are considered more efficient and practical. The Covid-19 pandemic further accelerated the adoption of cashless payments in Indonesia. This study analyzes the effects of transaction values and the number of CBPI and e-money cards on inflation using the Error Correction Model (ECM) to examine both short-run and long-run relationships. The results indicate that during the period from January 2021 to June 2025, inflation fluctuated within a relatively controlled range, while the use of e-money and CBPI increased with a non-linear growth pattern alongside post-pandemic economic recovery. In the long run, the number of emoney cards as well as the number of ATM and debit cards, including their quadratic effects, are found to have a significant impact on inflation, whereas in the short run only the number of e-money cards shows a significant effect. The error correction coefficient of 25.8% per month indicates the existence of an adjustment mechanism toward long-run equilibrium, with the remaining imbalance being corrected gradually in subsequent periods. The coefficient of determination of 0.216 suggests that 21.6% of the variation in inflation can be explained by the model, while the remaining variation is influenced by other factors outside the model.

Item Type:	Thesis (Diploma)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	APMK, ECM, E-Money, Inflasi, Sistem Pembayaran, Inflation, Payment System.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4012 Mathematical models
Divisions:	Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics
Depositing User:	Nur Fitri Mustika Ayu
Date Deposited:	24 Feb 2026 07:06
Last Modified:	24 Feb 2026 07:06
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/131566

Actions (login required)

View Item