Intervention Analysis on the Effectiveness of Plastic Waste Reduction Policies in Palu City: A Case Study of Mayoral Regulation No. 40 of 2021 terjemahkan judul ini lagi

Givary, Jeremy Filippo Gabriel (2026) Intervention Analysis on the Effectiveness of Plastic Waste Reduction Policies in Palu City: A Case Study of Mayoral Regulation No. 40 of 2021 terjemahkan judul ini lagi. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi secara kuantitatif efektivitas kebijakan pengurangan sampah plastik, khususnya Peraturan Wali Kota Palu Nomor 40 Tahun 2021, dengan menggunakan Analisis Intervensi terhadap data volume sampah bulanan periode Januari 2015 hingga Desember 2025 guna mengukur dampak signifikan kebijakan setelah mengendalikan pola tren dan musiman yang telah ada. Data dianalisis menggunakan model ARIMA musiman dengan variabel intervensi berbentuk fungsi langkah (step function), dan hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,1)₁₂ dengan komponen intervensi merupakan spesifikasi paling optimal, ditunjukkan oleh nilai AIC terendah sebesar 1.321,99 dan nilai MAPE sebesar 1,13%. Analisis intervensi mengidentifikasi adanya perubahan struktural yang signifikan secara statistik setelah implementasi kebijakan pada Maret 2022, dengan besaran efek intervensi sebesar +170,40 ton per bulan (p = 0,0253), yang menunjukkan peningkatan volume sampah tercatat sebesar 2,91% dibandingkan kondisi sebelum intervensi. Temuan yang bersifat kontraintuitif ini diduga berkaitan dengan peningkatan efisiensi pengumpulan sampah atau perbaikan cakupan pelaporan, sementara hasil diagnostik residual mengonfirmasi kecukupan model dengan residual bersifat white noise dan mendekati distribusi normal. Implikasi dari temuan ini dapat digunakan sebagai dasar untuk memperkuat kebijakan lingkungan di Kota Palu serta sebagai referensi metodologis bagi kota lain dalam mengevaluasi efektivitas program pengelolaan sampah.
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This study aims to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of the plastic waste reduction policy, specifically Palu Mayor Regulation No. 40 of 2021. The methodology employed is Intervention Analysis on monthly waste volume data from January 2015 to December 2025 to measure the significant impact of the policy after controlling for existing trend and seasonal patterns. The data were analyzed using a seasonal ARIMA model with a step function intervention variable. Results indicate that the ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,1)₁₂ model with intervention component is the most optimal specification with the lowest AIC value (1,321.99) and MAPE of 1.13%. The intervention analysis identified a statistically significant structural change following policy implementation in March 2022, with an intervention effect of +170.40 tons per month (p = 0.0253). This counterintuitive finding indicates a 2.91% increase in recorded waste volume compared to the pre-intervention baseline, which may be attributed to improved waste collection efficiency or better reporting coverage. Residual diagnostics confirm model adequacy with white noise residuals and approximate normality. The implications of these findings can serve as a basis for strengthening environmental policy in Palu City and as a methodological reference for other cities in evaluating the effectiveness of waste management programs

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Environmental Policy, Intervention Analysis, Plastic Waste Management, Seasonal ARIMA, Times Series
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA275 Theory of errors. Least squares. Including statistical inference. Error analysis (Mathematics) Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA276 Mathematical statistics. Time-series analysis. Failure time data analysis. Survival analysis (Biometry) Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA280 Box-Jenkins forecasting
Divisions:	Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Jeremy Filippo Gabriel Givary
Date Deposited:	04 Feb 2026 02:01
Last Modified:	04 Feb 2026 02:01
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/132087

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