Analisis Hubungan Indeks Harga Properti Residensial (IHPR) Dengan Variabel Makroekonomi Di Indonesia Menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

Siregar, Nauli Mazaya (2022) Analisis Hubungan Indeks Harga Properti Residensial (IHPR) Dengan Variabel Makroekonomi Di Indonesia Menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pertumbuhan penduduk dalam beberapa tahun terakhir mempengaruhi tingkat kebutuhan dan permintaan rumah di Indonesia. Di sisi lain, harga properti di sektor residensial juga terus mengalami peningkatan tiap tahun. Beberapa penelitian telah dilakukan untuk mendapatkan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi harga properti residensial yang ditunjukkan oleh nilai Indeks Harga Properti Residensial (IHPR). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat hubungan antara IHPR dengan variabel makroekonomi di Indonesia sekaligus melihat pengaruh efek pandemi covid-19 terhadap pergerakan nilai IHPR. Selain itu, ingin dilihat pula pengaruh guncangan pada masing-masing variabel serta persentase peran variabel makroekonomi terhadap perge rakan nilai IHPR. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis Impulse Response Function (IRF) dan Variance Decomposition (VD) untuk mencapai tujuan sehingga metode yang akan digunakan adalah Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa suku bunga KPR tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap nilai IHPR dalam jangka panjang. Semua variabel makroekonomi di dalam penelitian memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap IHPR dalam jangka pendek. IHPR memberikan respon yang cukup variatif terhadap guncangan yang dialami oleh masing-masing variabel makroekonomi. Guncangan yang di alami IHPR dan permintaan KPR memiliki kotribusi paling besar terhadap pergerakan nilai IHPR.
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Population growth in recent years affects the level of need and demand for housing in Indonesia. On the other hand, property prices in the residential sector also continue to increase every year. Several studies have been conducted to determine the factors that affect residential property prices as indicated by the value of the Residential Property Price Index (IHPR). This study aims to see the relationship between IHPR and macroeconomic variables in Indonesia as well as to see the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the movement of the IHPR value. In addition, we also want to see the effect of shocks on each variable and the percentage of the role of macroeconomic variables on the movement of the IHPR value. This study uses the anal ysis of Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD) to achieve the goal so that the method used is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results of this study indicate that mortgage interest rates do not have a significant effect on the value of IHPR in the long term. All macroeconomic variables in the study have a significant effect on IHPR in the short term. The IHPR gave a quite varied response to the shocks experienced by each macroeconomic variable. The shocks experienced by the IHPR and the demand for mortgages have the greatest contribution to the movement of the IHPR value.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Additional Information:	RSSt 519.536 Sir a 2022 3100022095657
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Covid-19, Guncangan, IHPR, Pertumbuhan ekonomi, VECM
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation. Logistic regression analysis. H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	ansi aflacha
Date Deposited:	25 Feb 2026 07:29
Last Modified:	25 Feb 2026 07:31
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/132619

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