Rosdianawati, Rista (2022) Peramalan Inflasi Kota Kediri Berdasarkan Indeks Harga Konsumen Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Inflasi Kota Kediri pada tahun 2021 tergolong inflasi ringan yaitu sebesar 1,64%. Laju inflasi yang rendah menandai pertumbuhan ekonomi lambat, sehingga diperlukan target untuk menghindari inflasi yang terlalu rendah. Dengan adanya target, dapat diambil kebijakan yang tepat untuk mencapai target tersebut. Peramalan dapat menjadi dasar dalam pengambilan keputusan, salah satunya yaitu metode peramalan exponential smoothing. Metode exponential smoothing merupakan metode pemulusan yang terbagi menjadi beberapa macam berdasarkan fluktuasi data yang diramalkan, diantaranya yaitu Holt’s exponential smoothing dan Holt-Winters exponential smoothing. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memperoleh model terbaik untuk meramalkan inflasi periode Januari hingga April 2022 berdasarkan IHK periode Januari 2012 hingga Desember 2021. Pemilihan model terbaik berdasarkan hasil uji akurasi MAD dan MAPE.
Berdasarkan penelitian yang telah dilakukan, diperoleh model terbaik untuk meramalkan IHK Kota Kediri Periode Januari hingga April 2022 adalah metode Holt-Winters exponential smoothing multiplikatif dengan model $F_{t+m} = S_{t} + b_{t} + I_{t-12+m}$, pemulusan stasioner $S_{t} = 0,2(x_{t} - I_{t-12}) + 0,8(S_{t-1} + b_{t-1})$, pemulusan tren $b_{t} = 0,15(S_{t} - S_{t-1}) + 0,85b_{t-1}$, serta pemulusan musiman $I_{t} = 0,1(x_{t} - S_{t}) + 0,9I_{t-12}$. Berdasarkan peramalan IHK diperoleh laju inflasi periode Januari hingga April 2022 adalah -1,95%, 0,50%, 0,35%, dan 0,07%. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode Holt-Winters exponential smoothing multiplikatif merupakan metode terbaik dengan nilai MAD dan MAPE rendah, serta keandalan model yang cukup baik dalam mempertahankan akurasinya.
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Kediri City’s inflation in 2021 is classified as mild inflation, namely 1.64%. The inflation rate is low and economic growth is slow, so a target is needed to avoid inflation that is too low. With the target, the right policy can be taken to achieve the target. Forecasting can be the basis for decision making, one of which is the exponential smoothing forecasting method. Exponential smoothing method is a smoothing method which is divided into several types based on forecasted data fluctuation, such as Holt’s exponential smoothing and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing. This study aims to obtain the best model for estimating the January to April 2022 CPI inflation period from January 2012 to December 2021. The selection of the best model is based on the results of the MAD, MAPE accuracy tests, and trials with the tracking signal’s control chart.
The results of the research that has been carried out, the best model for predicting the CPI of Kediri City from January to April 2022 is Holt-Winters exponential smoothing multiplicative method with model $F_{t+m} = S_{t} + b_{t} + I_{t-12+m}$, stationerity smoothing $S_{t} = 0,2(x_{t} - I_{t-12}) + 0,8(S_{t-1} + b_{t-1})$, trend smoothing $b_{t} = 0,15(S_{t} - S_{t-1}) + 0,85b_{t-1}$, and seasonal smoothing $I_{t} = 0,1(x_{t} - S_{t}) + 0,9I_{t-12}$. Based on the CPI forecast, the inflation rate from January to April 2022 is -1,95%, 0,50%, 0,35%, dan 0,07%. The results showed that Holt-Winters exponential smoothing multiplicative is the best method that has low MAD and MAPE values, and maintains the model in maintaining its accuracy quite well.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSMa 519.535 Ros p-1 2022 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | inflasi, indeks harga konsumen, peramalan, exponential smoothing. inflation, consumer price index, forecasting, exponential smoothing. |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Mathematics > 44201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Mr. Marsudiyana - |
| Date Deposited: | 05 Jun 2026 02:52 |
| Last Modified: | 05 Jun 2026 02:52 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/133593 |
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