Kontrol Optimal Penyebaran Covid-19 dengan Penerapan Pemberlakuan Pembatasan Kegiatan Masyarakat (Ppkm) di Surabaya

Andarbeni, Dyah Eka (2022) Kontrol Optimal Penyebaran Covid-19 dengan Penerapan Pemberlakuan Pembatasan Kegiatan Masyarakat (Ppkm) di Surabaya. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

Text 06111840000050-UNDERGRADUATE_THESIS.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only Download (1MB) | Request a copy

Abstract

COVID-19 merupakan penyakit menular yang menyerang sistem pernapasan manusia. Penyakit ini disebabkan oleh virus SarsCoV-2 yang pertama kali menjangkit wilayah Wuhan China dan akhirnya masuk ke Indonesia dan menjadi pandemi di seluruh dunia. Meski telah memasuki tahun ke dua pandemi, COVID-19 belum bisa dihilangkan secara total dan terus berkembang dengan berbagai jenis varian. Salah satu jenis varian COVID-19 yang mulai menyebar di Indonesia adalah varian OMICRON. Surabaya telah mengumumkan kasus pertama COVID-19 varian OMICRON dan terus mengalami kenaikan kasus setiap harinya. Oleh karena itu perlu dilakukan pencegahan dan penanganan agar angka kenaikan kasus COVID-19 dapat ditekan. Dalam Tugas Akhir ini akan dibahas mengenai pemberian kontrol optimal untuk mengendalikan penyebaran COVID-19 di Surabaya dengan model SEIR yang telah ada dan dikembangkan dengan penyesuaian yang ada. Bentuk kontrol yang akan dibahas dalam Tugas Akhir ini adalah penerapan Pemberlakuan Pembatasan Kegiatan Masyarakat (PPKM). Kontrol akan diberikan pada populasi Exposed dan Infected yang tak terdeteksi oleh tes. Penentuan kontrol optimal dengan Prinsip Minimum Pontryagin dan penyelesaian numerik dengan metode Runge-Kutta orde empat. Sedangkan pada analisis hasil simulasi dipeoleh bahwa PPKM dapat menurunkan populasi Exposed dan Infected tak terdeteksi hingga mencapai jiwa sehingga dapat mengurangi penyebaran COVID-19 di Surabaya.
==============================================================================================================================
COVID-19 is an infectious desease that attacks human respiratory system. This desease is caused by SarsCoV-2 virus that first found in Wuhan, China and eventually Indonesia and became the wolrdwide pandemic. Even though we have entered the second year of the pandemic, COVID-19 can not completely gone and continues to grow with various types of variants. One of the variants of covid-19 that began to spread in Indonesia is the OMICRON variant. Surabaya has announced the first case of COVID-19 OMICRON variant and the case is continue to grow in every day. Therefore it is necessary to prevent and handle so that the increase number of COVID-19 cases can be surpressed. In this Final Project, we will discuss the provision of optimal control to decrease the spread of COVID-19 in surabaya with existing SEIR model that developed with the existing adjustments. The form of control that will be discussed in this final project to suppress the spread of covid-19 in surabaya is the Implementation of Community Activity Restriction (PPKM). Control will be given to Exposed and Infected Undetected population. Determination of optimal control is using Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle, and numerical solution using Fourth-order Runge-Kutta Method. From simulation’s analysis, we can conclude that PPKM can reduced the population of Exposed and Infected Undetected until zero population thus can reduce the spread of COVID-19 in Surabaya.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Additional Information:	RSMa 515.642 And a-1 2022
Uncontrolled Keywords:	COVID-19. Model SEIR. Prinsip Minimum Pontryagin. COVID-19. SEIR Model. Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle.
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions:	Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Mathematics > 44201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Mr. Marsudiyana -
Date Deposited:	05 Jun 2026 04:52
Last Modified:	05 Jun 2026 04:52
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/133606

Actions (login required)

View Item