Analisis Risiko Kematian Covid-19 di Kota Surabaya Menggunakan Model Inhomogeneous Poisson Point Process

Fitriyanah, Vanda (2022) Analisis Risiko Kematian Covid-19 di Kota Surabaya Menggunakan Model Inhomogeneous Poisson Point Process. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Total kematian atau Case Fatality Rate (CFR) akibat COVID-19 di Surabaya tergolong tinggi, yaitu hampir dua kali lipat dari CFR global (1,4%). Pemanfaatan data beresolusi tinggi berpotensi untuk menggali kasus COVID-19, tidak hanya mencatat kasus di tingkat kabupaten atau kota tetapi juga di tingkat domisili pasien sehingga dapat memberikan informasi spasial yang lebih detail. Sementara itu, penelitian yang mengeksplorasi risiko kematian akibat COVID-19 khususnya di Surabaya dengan menggunakan model Spatial Point Process, belum dilakukan. Pada penelitian ini akan dilakukan analisis risiko kematian akibat COVID-19 di Surabaya dengan menggunakan model inhomogeneous Poisson point process dengan kovariat atau faktor eksternal yang digunakan antara lain kepadatan rumah sakit rujukan COVID-19 dan proporsi penduduk terkonfirmasi COVID-19 dengan usia >60 tahun per kecamatan. Hasil pemodelan menunjukkan bahwa rumah sakit rujukan (exp (β̂) = 1,03295) dan tempat ibadah (exp (β̂) = 1,03835) berpengaruh signifikan terhadap risiko kematian akibat COVID-19. Variabel yang berpengaruh lebih besar terhadap risiko kematian COVID-19 adalah proporsi penduduk terkonfirmasi COVID-19 berusia >60 tahun sehingga perlu penanganan khusus untuk daerah yang memiliki proporsi penduduk terkonfirmasi positif COVID-19 berusia >60 tahun yang tinggi dimana pada usia tersebut daya tahan tubuh manusia akan menurun.
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The total death rate or Case Fatality Rate (CFR) due to COVID-19 in Surabaya is high, that is almost twice of the global CFR (1.4%). Utilization of high-resolution data has the potential to explore COVID-19 cases, not only recording cases at the district or city level but also at the patient's domicile level so that they can provide more detailed spatial information. Meanwhile, research exploring the risk of death from COVID-19, especially in Surabaya using spatial point process model, has not yet been carried out. In this study, an analysis of the risk of death from COVID-19 in Surabaya will be carried out using the inhomogeneous Poisson point process model with covariates or external factors used including the density of the COVID-19 referral hospital and the proportion of confirmed COVID-19 population aged > 60 years per districts. Modeling result shows that referral hospitals (exp (β̂) = 1.03295) and places of worship (exp (β̂) = 1.03835) have a significant effect on death risk from COVID-19. The variable that has a greater influence on the risk of death from COVID-19 is the proportion of the population with confirmed COVID-19 aged >60 years, so special treatment is needed for areas that have a high proportion of the population confirmed positive for COVID-19 aged >60 years, where at that age endurance the human body will decline.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Additional Information:	RSSt 519.536 Fit a-1 2022
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Risiko Kematian COVID-19, Inhomogeneous Poisson Point Process, Surabaya. Death Risk COVID-19, Inhomogeneous Poisson Point Process, Surabaya.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Mr. Marsudiyana -
Date Deposited:	10 Jun 2026 04:29
Last Modified:	10 Jun 2026 04:29
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/133689

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