Yutomo, Mahendra Kresna (2022) Pemodelan Arima Intervensi Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara Ke Pulau Lombok, Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta, Dan Sumatera Utara Berdasarkan Pintu Masuk Bandara Internasional. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
![[thumbnail of 06211840000080-Undergraduate_Thesis.pdf]](http://repository.its.ac.id/style/images/fileicons/text.png) |
Text
06211840000080-Undergraduate_Thesis.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only Download (4MB) | Request a copy |
Abstract
Sektor industri pariwisata berperan penting dalam meningkatkan perekonomian negara. Terdapat tiga kawasan utama yang menjadi sasaran Indonesian Tourism Development Project (ITDP) dengan destinasi pariwisata yang terkenal bagi wisatawan lokal maupun mancanegara yaitu Mandalika (Lombok), Candi Borobudur (DIY), dan Danau Toba (Sumut). Pada tahun 2020 terjadi pandemi COVID-19 yang telah memberikan dampak sangat signifikan terhadap pariwisata Indonesia, ini mengakibatkan industri pariwisata di tiga kawasan tersebut mengalami tantangan yang sangat berat akibat turunnya jumlah kunjungan wisatawan yang cukup drastis. Untuk mengetahui seberapa besar dampak pandemi terhadap kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara ke Pulau Lombok, Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta, dan Provinsi Sumatera Utara di periode yang akan datang diperlukan adanya peramalan. Metode peramalan yang akan digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis intervensi. Jenis dari variabel intervensi dapat berupa fungsi step maupun fungsi pulse. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder yang bersumber dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) tentang jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara berdasarkan pintu masuk Bandara Internasional Lombok, Bandara Internasional Adisucipto, dan Bandara Internasional Kualanamu secara rutin setiap bulan dari periode bulan Januari 2013 sampai Desember 2020 atau 96 periode waktu digunakan sebagai data training dan Januari – Desember 2021 atau 12 periode merupakan data testing. Berdasarkan hasil analisis, diperoleh bahwa jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara di Pulau Lombok dapat dimodelkan dengan ARIMA intervensi dua input yang disebabkan oleh gempa bumi tahun 2018 dan pandemi Covid-19. Selain itu, pemodelan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara ke DIY dan Sumatera Utara lebih tepat menggunakan satu input yaitu pandemi Covid-19 dengan fungsi step. Hasil ramalan menunjukkan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara di Pulau Lombok, Sumatera Utara, dan Yogyakarta masih berusaha pulih ke kondisi sebelum pandemi dengan laju perlahan. Hal ini berarti dengan adanya program ITDP ini dapat membangun kembali pariwisata Indonesia serta membantu perekonomian negara akibat pandemi Covid-19. Nilai potential loss yang dihasilkan juga menunjukkan bahwa tiga kawasan tersebut masih sangat potensial untuk membantu perekonomian negara jika tidak terjadi pandemi Covid-19.
==============================================================================================================================
The tourism industry sector plays an important role in improving the country's economy. There are three main areas targeted by the Indonesian Tourism Development Project (ITDP) with well-known tourism destinations for local and foreign tourists, namely Mandalika (Lombok), Borobudur Temple (DIY), and Lake Toba (North Sumatra). In 2020 there was a COVID-19 pandemic which had a very significant impact on Indonesian tourism, this resulted in the tourism industry in the three regions experiencing very severe challenges due to the drastic decline in the number of tourist visits. To find out how big the impact of the pandemic on foreign tourist visits to Lombok Island, Yogyakarta Special Region, and North Sumatra Province in the coming period, forecasting is needed. The forecasting method used in this study is intervention analysis. The type of intervention variable can be a step function or a pulse function. The data used in this study is secondary data sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) about the number of foreign tourist arrivals based on the entrances to Lombok International Airport, Adisucipto International Airport, and Kualanamu International Airport on a monthly basis from January 2013 to December 2020 utilized as 96 time periods are used as training data and January – December 2021 utilized as 12 periods are testing data. Based on the results of the analysis, it was found that the number of foreign tourist arrivals on Lombok Island could be modeled with the ARIMA two-input intervention caused by the 2018 earthquake and the Covid-19 pandemi. In addition, modeling the number of foreign tourist visits to DIY and North Sumatra is more appropriate to use one input, namely the Covid-19 pandemic with a step function. The forecast results show that the number of foreign tourist arrivals on the islands of Lombok, North Sumatra and Yogyakarta is still trying to recover to pre-pandemic conditions at a slow pace. This means that the ITDP program can rebuild Indonesian tourism and help the country's economy due to the Covid-19 pandemi. The resulting potential loss value also shows that the three areas still have the potential to help the country's economy if the Covid-19 pandemi does not occur.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSSt 519.535 Yut p-1 2022 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | COVID-19, ARIMA Box-Jenkins, ARIMA Intervensi, Indonesian Tourism Development Project (ITDP), Potential Loss. COVID-19, ARIMA Box-Jenkins, ARIMA Intervention, Indoensian Tourism Develompent Project (ITDP), Potential Loss |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Mr. Marsudiyana - |
| Date Deposited: | 11 Jun 2026 03:13 |
| Last Modified: | 11 Jun 2026 03:13 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/133724 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |