Pemodelan kasus COVID-19 di Jawa Timur menggunakan regresi spasial

Dewi, apriani kartika (2022) Pemodelan kasus COVID-19 di Jawa Timur menggunakan regresi spasial. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pandemi COVID-19 telah menjadi ancaman global yang sangat serius, termasuk di Indonesia. Situasi ini menimbulkan tantangan besar dalam pengendalian penyebarannya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memodelkan kasus COVID-19 di Jawa Timur dengan menggunakan model regresi spasial, dan mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap jumlah kasus positif. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder dari berbagai sumber resmi, termasuk data jumlah kasus COVID-19, kepadatan penduduk, fasilitas umum, dan variabel lainnya yang relevan. Analisis dilakukan dengan metode regresi spasial seperti model SAR dan SEM, serta pengujian autokorelasi spasial menggunakan indeks Moran dan uji Lagrange Multiplier. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa faktor kepadatan penduduk dan keberadaan fasilitas umum berpengaruh signifikan terhadap penyebaran kasus COVID-19 di Jawa Timur. Model regresi spasial terbukti lebih akurat dibandingkan model regresi konvensional berdasarkan nilai AIC dan nilai R-squared. Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat membantu pemerintah dalam pengambilan kebijakan penanggulangan COVID-19 berbasis spasial.
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The COVID-19 pandemic has become a serious global threat, including in Indonesia. This situation poses significant challenges in controlling its spread. This study aims to model COVID-19 cases in East Java using spatial regression models and identify significant influencing factors on the number of positive cases. The data used are secondary data from various official sources, including COVID-19 case numbers, population density, public facilities, and other relevant variables. Analysis was conducted using spatial regression methods such as SAR and SEM models, as well as spatial autocorrelation tests using Moran's I and Lagrange Multiplier tests. The results indicate that population density and the presence of public facilities significantly influence the spread of COVID-19 cases in East Java. The spatial regression models proved to be more accurate than conventional regression models based on AIC and R-squared values. This research is expected to assist government policy-making in spatial-based COVID-19 mitigation.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Additional Information:	RSSt 519.536 Dew p-1 2022
Uncontrolled Keywords:	COVID-19, Jawa Timur, Regresi spasial, SAR. COVID-19, East Java, Spatial Regression, SAR.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Mr. Marsudiyana -
Date Deposited:	11 Jun 2026 04:55
Last Modified:	11 Jun 2026 04:55
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/133736

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