Analisis Kelayakan Finansial Proyek Penambangan Tanah Liat Berbasis Probabilistic Npv At Risk

Maulana, Taslim (2022) Analisis Kelayakan Finansial Proyek Penambangan Tanah Liat Berbasis Probabilistic Npv At Risk. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Analisa kelayakan merupakan tahapan harus dilakukan sebelum investasi terhadap pertambangan tanah liat dilakukan. Seperti investasi lainnya, pertambangan memiliki potensi resiko dan masalah yang dapat mempengaruhi kelayakan dari investasi. Karena kegiatan pertambangan memiliki risiko (ketidakpastian), maka perhitungan kelayakan tidak hanya dilakukan secara determenistik dan memerlukan pendekatan probabilistik. Sehingga Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah mengidentifikasi dan menganalisa risiko-risiko apa saja yang terdapat dalam kegiatan pertambangan seta menganalisa pengaruh risiko tersebut dalam penilaian kelayakan finansial kegiatan penambangan. Metode yang digunakan adalah NPV at risk, Data resiko-resiko kegiatan pertambangan dikumpulkan melalui kajian literature yang mendalam, serta wawancara kepada expert dibidang pertambangan. data tersebut kemudian dimodelkan dalam bentuk probabilistic cashflow analysis menggunakan aplikasi @risk for excel. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa Resiko yang memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap perubahan NPV kegiatan pertambangan tanah liat ini adalah resiko permintaan pasar, dengan kontribusi 93,5% dari keberagaman nilai NPV. Analisa sensitivitas juga dilakukan dengan skenario perubahan permintaan pasar dengan rentang +/-30%. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa pada skenario kenaikan permintaan pasar +30%, didapat mean NPV sebesar Rp 1.514.000.000,- dengan standar deviasi Rp 460.681.602. Sedangkan untuk penurunan permintaan pasar -30%, didapat NPV sebesar Rp 730.777.609 dengan standar deviasi Rp 400.098.533. Probabilitas penambangan ini mengalami kerugian (mendapatkan NPV < Rp 0), adalah 19%. Ini berarti bahwa iv risiko kerugian tergolong rendah (<20%). Dari hasil tersebut bisa disimpulkan bahwa proyek pertambangan tanah liat ini layak dan bisa dilaksanakan.
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Feasibility analysis is a step that must be carried out before investing in clay mining. Similar to any other investments, mining also has potential risks and problems that can affect the viability of the investment. Because mining activities have risks (uncertainty), the feasibility calculation is not only carried out in a deterministic manner but also requires a probabilistic approach. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the risks in mining activities, and also analyze the effects of these risks in assessing the financial feasibility of mining activities. This study uses NPV at risk method to reach the goals. The method consists of compiling the data of risks in mining activities through an in-depth literature review and interviewing the experts from mining sector. Furthermore, the data is modeled in the form of a probabilistic cash flow analysis using @risk for excel application. The result shows that the risk of market demand has the most significant influence on changes in the NPV of clay mining activities with 93.5% of the diversity of NPV values. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out with scenarios of changes in market demand with a range of +/-30%. The simulation results show that in the +30% increase in market demand scenario, the mean NPV is IDR 1,514,000,000 with a standard deviation of IDR 460,681,602. Meanwhile, for a -30% decrease in market demand, the NPV was Rp 730,777,609 with a standard deviation of Rp 400,098,533. The probability of this mining to suffer a loss (getting NPV < Rp 0), is 19%. This means that the risk of loss is low (<20%). From these results it can be concluded that this clay mining project is feasible and can be implemented.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Additional Information:	RTMT 658.404 Mau a-1 2022
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Analisis Kelayakan Finansial, Risiko, NPV at Risk, Tambang Tanah Liat. Financial Feasibility Analysis, Risk, NPV at Risk, Clay Mining.
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General)
Divisions:	Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT)
Depositing User:	Mr. Marsudiyana -
Date Deposited:	03 Jul 2026 07:09
Last Modified:	03 Jul 2026 07:09
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/134274

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