Keputusan Investasi Proyek Jalan Tol Serang - Panimbang Dengan Mempertimbangkan Pengoperasian Tol Secara Bertahap

Utomo, Wahyu (2026) Keputusan Investasi Proyek Jalan Tol Serang - Panimbang Dengan Mempertimbangkan Pengoperasian Tol Secara Bertahap. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Jalan Tol Serang – Panimbang merupakan Proyek Strategis Nasional yang dibangun untuk mendukung Kawasan Ekonomi Khusus Tanjung Lesung dan terbagi menjadi 3 Seksi. Salah satu poin yang disepakati pada Perjanjian Pengusahaan Jalan Tol (PPJT) antara BUJT & BPJT adalah seluruh seksi dapat beroperasi pada tahun 2019. Terjadinya perubahan lingkup desain, proses approval desain yang lama dan keterlambatan pembebasan lahan menyebabkan diperlukannya kajian ulang investasi dengan operasional tol secara bertahap. Kajian ulang investasi diperlukan untuk melihat batas keputusan investasi ketika operasional tol dilakukan secara bertahap. Perhitungan base case dilakukan melalui penyusunan arus kas terdiskonto dengan menggunakan Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). Parameter yang digunakan adalah Net Present Value (NPV). Kajian sensitivitas deterministik digunakan untuk melihat batas tiitik balik keputusan investasi. Selain itu kajian sensitivitas stokastik diperlukan untuk melihat probabilitas kemungkinan yang terjadi. Sensitivitas stokastik dianalisis dengan Metode Monte Carlo menggunakan Crystal Ball sebanyak 10.000 percobaan. Variabel asumsi yang dianalisis meliputi Tarif Tol, Biaya Capex Konstruksi, Biaya Operational & Maintenance, Lalu Lintas Harian Rata-rata (LHR) awal tiap seksi, Pertumbuhan LHR serta Tahun Operasional tiap seksi. Hasil kajian keputusan investasi tol dengan operasional bertahap pada pendekatan deterministik menunjukkan bahwa variabel paling berpengaruh terhadap NPV adalah Tarif Tol dan Biaya Capex Konstruksi. Sedangkan Seksi 1 maksimal beroperasi tahun 2023, Seksi 2 tahun 2024 dan Seksi 3 tahun 2038. Hasil analisis sensitivitas stokastik menunjukkan bahwa rentang probabilitas batas keputusan investasi berkisar antara 4,20% - 4,68% dengan tarif tol sebagai variabel paling sensitif. Ruas Seksi 2 merupakan ruas yang perlu segera dioperasionalkan. Dalam kaitannya dengan impilkasi manajemen maka perlu dilakukan mitigasi risiko melalui strategi kebijakan tarif tol, kajian ulang keakuratan proyeksi lalu lintas, percepatan operasional Seksi 2, koordinasi dengan pemerintah dan pengelola KEK Tanjung Lesung.
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The Serang–Panimbang Toll Road is a National Strategic Project developed to support the Tanjung Lesung Special Economic Zone and consists of three sections. One of the points agreed upon in the Toll Road Concession Agreement (PPJT) between the Toll Road Business Entity (BUJT) and the Toll Road Regulatory Agency (BPJT) was that all sections would be operational by 2019. However, changes in design scope, prolonged design approval processes, and delays in land acquisition have necessitated a reassessment of the investment under a staged toll road operation scheme. The investment reassessment is required to determine the investment decision threshold when the toll road operates in stages. The base case calculation was conducted by preparing a discounted cash flow using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). The investment parameter used in this study is Net Present Value (NPV). Deterministic sensitivity analysis was applied to identify the critical turning point of the investment decision. In addition, stochastic sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the probability of possible outcomes. The stochastic sensitivity analysis was performed using the Monte Carlo method with Crystal Ball through 10,000 trials. The assumption variables analyzed include toll tariff, construction capital expenditure, operational and maintenance costs, initial Average Daily Traffic (ADT) for each section, ADT growth, and the operational year of each section. The results of the toll road investment decision analysis under the staged operation scheme using the deterministic approach indicate that the most influential variables affecting NPV are toll tariff and construction capital expenditure. Furthermore, Section 1 may operate no later than 2023, Section 2 by 2024, and Section 3 by 2038. The results of the stochastic sensitivity analysis show that the probability range of the investment decision threshold is between 4.20% - 4.68%, with toll tariff identified as the most sensitive variable. Section 2 is the section that needs to be operated immediately. In terms of managerial implications, risk mitigation should be carried out through toll tariff policy strategies, reassessment of traffic projection accuracy, acceleration of Section 2 operations, and coordination with the government and the management of the Tanjung Lesung Special Economic Zone.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Analisis Investasi, Analisis Sensitivitas, Monte Carlo, Crystal Ball, Jalan Tol Serang – Panimbang
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD30.23 Decision making. Business requirements analysis. H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD30.27 Business forecasting H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4529 Investment analysis
Divisions:	Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT)
Depositing User:	Wahyu Utomo
Date Deposited:	10 Jul 2026 08:57
Last Modified:	10 Jul 2026 08:57
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/134664

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