Keputusan Investasi Proyek Refurbish dan Uprating Unit 6 PLTA Ir. H. Djuanda dengan Penganggaran Modal Inkremental

Rahmadani, Emilia (2026) Keputusan Investasi Proyek Refurbish dan Uprating Unit 6 PLTA Ir. H. Djuanda dengan Penganggaran Modal Inkremental. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Peningkatan kebutuhan energi bersih di Indonesia mendorong pembangkit energi terbarukan untuk beroperasi secara andal dan efisien. PLTA Ir. H. Djuanda merupakan salah satu pembangkit listrik tenaga air yang berperan dalam sistem kelistrikan Jawa–Madura-Bali. Unit 6 PLTA Ir. H. Djuanda mengalami degradasi mekanikal dan elektrikal yang menyebabkan unit tidak dapat beroperasi, sehingga diperlukan keputusan investasi untuk memulihkan kinerja operasional unit. Penelitian ini membandingkan dua alternatif investasi, yaitu refurbish dan uprating, yang memiliki perbedaan dari sisi biaya investasi, ruang lingkup teknis, kapasitas pembangkitan, serta manfaat ekonomi yang dihasilkan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis kinerja finansial alternatif refurbish dan uprating serta menentukan alternatif investasi berdasarkan pendekatan penganggaran modal inkremental. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah capital budgeting dengan indikator Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), dan Discounted Payback Period (DPP). Selanjutnya, karena kedua alternatif bersifat mutually exclusive, dilakukan analisis Incremental IRR untuk mengevaluasi tambahan investasi pada alternatif uprating dibandingkan alternatif refurbish. Analisis sensitivitas juga dilakukan dengan pendekatan deterministik terhadap perubahan CAPEX, OPEX, dan revenue untuk mengetahui pengaruh perubahan parameter terhadap nilai NPV serta menentukan batas perubahan parameter yang menyebabkan NPV menjadi negatif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kedua alternatif investasi menghasilkan kinerja finansial yang memenuhi kriteria evaluasi pada kondisi dasar. Hasil analisis sensitivitas menunjukkan bahwa revenue merupakan parameter yang paling sensitif terhadap perubahan nilai NPV pada kedua alternatif. Berdasarkan nilai switching value, alternatif refurbish memiliki batas toleransi yang lebih besar terhadap kenaikan CAPEX dan penurunan revenue, yaitu CAPEX meningkat hingga 76% dan revenue menurun hingga 17% sebelum NPV menjadi negatif. Sementara itu, alternatif uprating menghasilkan NPV negatif ketika CAPEX meningkat hingga 27% dan revenue menurun hingga 14%. Pada parameter OPEX, alternatif uprating memiliki batas toleransi sebesar 38%, sedangkan alternatif refurbish sebesar 33%. Hasil analisis inkremental menunjukkan nilai Incremental IRR sebesar 6,82%, lebih tinggi dibandingkan MARR sebesar 6,49%. Dengan demikian, tambahan investasi pada alternatif uprating masih menghasilkan tingkat pengembalian tambahan di atas tingkat pengembalian minimum yang disyaratkan, meskipun dengan margin yang relatif terbatas. Temuan ini menunjukkan adanya perbedaan karakteristik investasi, di mana refurbish lebih unggul dari sisi efisiensi pengembalian dan ketahanan risiko finansial, sedangkan uprating memberikan manfaat finansial total yang lebih besar melalui peningkatan kapasitas pembangkit.
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The increasing demand for clean energy in Indonesia encourages renewable energy power plants to operate reliably and efficiently. Ir. H. Djuanda Hydropower Plant is one of the hydropower plants that contributes to the Java Madura–Bali electricity system. Unit 6 of Ir. H. Djuanda Hydropower Plant has experienced mechanical and electrical degradation, causing the unit to be unable to operate. Therefore, an investment decision is required to restore the operational performance of the unit. This study compares two investment alternatives, namely refurbish and uprating, which differ in terms of investment cost, technical scope, generation capacity, and economic benefits. The objective of this research is to analyze the financial performance of the refurbishment and uprating alternatives and to determine the preferred investment option using an incremental capital budgeting approach. The analytical method applied is capital budgeting, with evaluation indicators including Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Discounted Payback Period (DPP). Since the two alternatives are mutually exclusive, an Incremental IRR analysis is conducted to evaluate the additional investment required for uprating compared to refurbishment. Sensitivity analysis is also conducted using a deterministic approach to assess the impact of changes in CAPEX, OPEX, and revenue on NPV values, and to identify threshold values at which NPV becomes negative. The results show that both investment alternatives meet the financial evaluation criteria under the base-case condition. The sensitivity analysis indicates that revenue is the most sensitive parameter affecting NPV in both alternatives. Based on the switching value, the refurbish alternative has a higher tolerance limit for CAPEX increases and revenue decreases, with CAPEX able to increase by up to 76% and revenue able to decrease by up to 17% before NPV becomes negative. Meanwhile, the uprating alternative results in a negative NPV when CAPEX increases by up to 27% and revenue decreases by up to 14%. For the OPEX parameter, the uprating alternative has a tolerance limit of 38%, while the refurbish alternative has a tolerance limit of 33%. The incremental analysis shows an Incremental IRR of 6.82%, which is higher than the MARR of 6.49%. Therefore, the additional investment in the uprating alternative still generates an incremental return above the minimum required rate of return, although with a relatively limited margin. These findings indicate different investment characteristics, where refurbish is superior in terms of return efficiency and financial risk resilience, while uprating provides greater total financial benefits through increased generation capacity.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keputusan Investasi, Refurbish, Uprating, Capital Budgeting, Analisis Incremental, Analisis Sensitivitas. Investment Decision, Refurbish, Uprating, Capital Budgeting, Incremental Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4529 Investment analysis T Technology > T Technology (General) > T56.8 Project Management T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.62 Decision support systems T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:	Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT)
Depositing User:	Emilia Rahmadani
Date Deposited:	15 Jul 2026 01:46
Last Modified:	15 Jul 2026 01:46
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/134950

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