Studi Perubahan Simpanan Air pada Daerah Aliran Sungai di Pulau Sumatra Menggunakan Data Satelit GRACE-FO Periode 2018-2025

Nadzief, Emira Husnia (2026) Studi Perubahan Simpanan Air pada Daerah Aliran Sungai di Pulau Sumatra Menggunakan Data Satelit GRACE-FO Periode 2018-2025. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perubahan simpanan air pada sembilan area Daerah Aliran Sungai (DAS) di Pulau Sumatra menggunakan data satelit GRACE Follow-On periode Juni 2018 hingga Juni 2025, mengevaluasi korelasinya dengan model hidrologi GLDAS NOAH serta data curah hujan satelit GPM dan data in situ BMKG, serta melakukan prediksi perubahan simpanan air. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan deret waktu untuk mengidentifikasi tren perubahan simpanan air dan pola variasinya. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar DAS mengalami tren negatif, seperti DAS Lampung (-0,318±0,211 cm/tahun), Musi (-0,331±0,193 cm/tahun), dan Bengkulu (-0,383±0,219 cm/tahun), yang mengindikasikan penurunan simpanan air. Sebaliknya, DAS Sumatra Utara (0.457±0.146 cm/tahun) dan Aceh (1,025±0,142 cm/tahun) menunjukkan tren positif, sedangkan DAS Masang-Pasaman dan DAS Riau menunjukkan tren yang tidak signifikan. Korelasi antara GRACE-FO dan GLDAS NOAH umumnya kuat (0,652–0,768), meskipun pada beberapa DAS menunjukkan hubungan sedang hingga lemah. Korelasi dengan curah hujan menunjukkan hubungan sedang hingga lemah. Hasil prediksi dengan XGBoost menunjukkan kemampuan model yang bervariasi dalam merepresentasikan data observasi, dengan nilai koefisien korelasi berkisar antara 0,424–0,943. Berdasarkan uji paired sample t-test, sebagian besar DAS tidak menunjukkan perbedaan yang signifikan antara hasil prediksi dan data observasi GRACE-FO pada tingkat kepercayaan 95%. Perubahan simpanan air di Pulau Sumatra menunjukkan karakteristik yang berbeda antar DAS, sedangkan model GLDAS NOAH mampu merepresentasikan pola perubahan tersebut dengan tingkat kesesuaian yang bervariasi.
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This study aims to analyse changes in water storage across nine river basins area in Sumatra Island using GRACE Follow-On satellite data from June 2018 to June 2025, to evaluate its correlation with the GLDAS NOAH hydrological model and precipitation data from GPM and in situ BMKG data, and to perform water storage changes prediction. The analysis was conducted using time series methods to identify trends and variability patterns of water storage changes. The results show that most river basins exhibit negative trends, such as Lampung (-0,318±0,211 cm/year), Musi (-0,331±0,193 cm/year), and Bengkulu (-0,383±0,219 cm/year), indicating a decrease in water storage. In contrast, North Sumatra (0,457±0,146 cm/year) and Aceh (1,025±0,142 cm/year) show positive trends, while Masang-Pasaman and Riau exhibit non-significant trends. The correlation between GRACE-FO and GLDAS NOAH is generally strong (0,652–0,768), although some basins show moderate to weak relationships. Correlation with precipitation also indicates moderate to weak relationships. The XGBoost prediction results showed varying levels of performance in representing the observed data, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0,424 to 0,943. The paired sample t-test indicated that, for most watersheds, there were no statistically significant differences between the predicted values and the GRACE-FO observations at the 95% confidence level. Terrestrial water storage changes across Sumatra exhibited distinct characteristics among watersheds, while the GLDAS NOAH model was able to capture these variations with varying levels of agreement.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Anomali Simpanan Air, Curah Hujan, GLDAS NOAH, GRACE-FO, Prediksi, GLDAS NOAH, GRACE-FO, Precipitation, Prediction, Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.217 Geospatial data G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.5.I4 Remote sensing H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.6 Spatial analysis
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Geomatics Engineering > 29202-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Emira Husnia Nadzief
Date Deposited:	20 Jul 2026 07:38
Last Modified:	20 Jul 2026 07:38
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/135722

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