Adyatma, Bhagawanta Atha (2026) Pengembangan Model Morfodinamik Adaptif Sebagai Respons Terhadap Kenaikan Muka Air Laut Relatif Berbasis Modifikasi Equilibrium Beach Profile (EBP) di Pantai Timur Surabaya. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya.
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Abstract
Pantai Timur Surabaya atau Pamurbaya merupakan kawasan pesisir dataran rendah bertipe delta-estuari yang rentan terhadap kenaikan muka laut, penurunan tanah, dan perubahan garis pantai. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis karakteristik penurunan tanah, tren historis dan proyeksi kenaikan muka laut, dinamika garis pantai, serta mengembangkan model morfodinamik adaptif berbasis Modified Equilibrium Beach Profile (M-EBP). Data yang digunakan meliputi Sentinel-1 InSAR periode 2018–2024 untuk mengestimasi penurunan tanah, Absolute Dynamic Topography periode 2010–2024 untuk menghitung sea-level rise, citra satelit multitemporal tahun 2010, 2015, 2017, 2020, 2024, dan 2025 untuk analisis garis pantai menggunakan Digital Shoreline Analysis System, serta data batimetri, gelombang, sedimen, dan profil pantai. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tren kenaikan muka laut rata-rata sebesar 3,109 mm/tahun, dengan proyeksi 100 tahun sekitar 25–37 cm. Setelah dikombinasikan dengan penurunan tanah, relative sea-level rise menunjukkan variasi spasial sebesar 4,08–10,49 mm/tahun atau setara 0,41–1,10 m dalam 100 tahun, dengan nilai tertinggi pada segmen Rungkut–Gunung Anyar. Analisis DSAS menunjukkan perubahan garis pantai yang sangat dinamis, ditunjukkan oleh akresi maksimum 1.389,24 m dan erosi maksimum -127,63 m. Perbandingan metode memperlihatkan bahwa Hennecke menghasilkan estimasi retreat terbesar, diikuti Bruun Rule dan EBP. Model M-EBP mampu merepresentasikan respons erosi, akresi, dan kondisi stabil secara spasial pada empat segmen pesisir, yaitu Bulak, Mulyorejo, Sukolilo, dan Rungkut–Gunung Anyar. Dengan mempertimbangkan RSLR, parameter profil pantai, serta faktor lokal, M-EBP memberikan kerangka empiris yang lebih adaptif untuk menggambarkan perubahan morfodinamik Pamurbaya dan mendukung perencanaan adaptasi pesisir jangka panjang. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa perubahan garis pantai Pamurbaya tidak dapat dijelaskan hanya melalui kenaikan muka laut oseanik, tetapi harus dibaca sebagai hasil interaksi antara gerak vertikal tanah, karakter sedimen, kemiringan profil, energi gelombang, dan proses sedimentasi lokal.
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The East Coast of Surabaya, or Pamurbaya, is a low-lying delta-estuarine coastal area that is vulnerable to sea-level rise, land subsidence, and shoreline change. This study aims to analyze the characteristics of land subsidence, historical trends and projections of sea-level rise, shoreline dynamics, and to develop an adaptive morphodynamic model based on the Modified Equilibrium Beach Profile (M-EBP). The datasets include Sentinel-1 InSAR for 2018–2024 to estimate land subsidence, Absolute Dynamic Topography for 2010–2024 to calculate sea-level rise, multitemporal satellite imagery from 2010, 2015, 2017, 2020, 2024, and 2025 for shoreline analysis using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System, as well as bathymetric, wave, sediment, and beach profile data. The results show that the average sea-level rise trend is 3.109 mm/year, with a 100-year projection of approximately 25–37 cm. When combined with land subsidence, relative sea-level rise shows spatial variation of 4.08–10.49 mm/year, equivalent to 0.41–1.10 m over 100 years, with the highest value occurring in the Rungkut–Gunung Anyar segment. DSAS analysis indicates highly dynamic shoreline changes, represented by maximum accretion of 1,389.24 m and maximum erosion of -127.63 m. Method comparison shows that Hennecke produces the largest retreat estimate, followed by the Bruun Rule and EBP. The M-EBP model is able to represent spatial responses of erosion, accretion, and stable shoreline conditions across four coastal segments, namely Bulak, Mulyorejo, Sukolilo, and Rungkut–Gunung Anyar. By incorporating RSLR, beach profile parameters, and local factors, M-EBP provides a more adaptive empirical framework for describing Pamurbaya morphodynamic changes and supporting long-term coastal adaptation planning. These findings emphasize that shoreline change in Pamurbaya cannot be explained solely by oceanic sea-level rise, but should be interpreted as the result of interactions among vertical land motion, sediment characteristics, profile slope, wave energy, and local sedimentation processes.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Sea Level Rise, Relative Sea-Level Rise, Pantai Timur Surabaya, DSAS, Equilibrium Beach Profile, M-EBP, Sea Level Rise, Relative Sea-Level Rise, East Coast Of Surabaya, DSAS, Equilibrium Beach Profile, M-EBP. |
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GC Oceanography G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GC Oceanography > GC1018.5 Ocean zoning. G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GC Oceanography > GC89 Sea Level T Technology > TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering T Technology > TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering > TC203.5 Coastal engineering |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Ocean Engineering > 38101-(S2) Master Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Bhagawanta Atha Adyatma |
| Date Deposited: | 21 Jul 2026 02:45 |
| Last Modified: | 21 Jul 2026 02:45 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/135880 |
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