Agustina, Vina (2026) Analisis Spasial Tingkat Kerawanan Banjir Rob dan Hubungannya terhadap Perubahan Tutupan Lahan di Kawasan Pesisir Utara Kota Surabaya (2016–2024). Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Kawasan pesisir utara Kota Surabaya merupakan wilayah yang rentan terhadap banjir rob akibat kombinasi faktor topografi rendah, dinamika pasang surut, dan tekanan urbanisasi yang intensif. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dinamika perubahan tutupan lahan, memetakan zona kerawanan banjir rob, serta menganalisis pengaruh perubahan tutupan lahan terhadap tingkat kerawanan banjir rob di kawasan pesisir utara Kota Surabaya pada periode 2016–2024. Klasifikasi tutupan lahan dilakukan menggunakan algoritma Random Forest berbasis data ortofoto hasil teknologi UAV Fotogrametri, dengan nilai Overall Accuracy sebesar 86,25% dan 89% serta koefisien Kappa sebesar 0,817 dan 0,853 untuk masing-masing periode. Pembobotan parameter kerawanan dilakukan menggunakan metode Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) yang melibatkan 8 dari 15 responden ahli yang memenuhi syarat konsistensi, menghasilkan bobot tertinggi pada parameter Elevasi (34%) dan Pasang Surut (24%). Pemetaan zona kerawanan dilakukan melalui weighted overlay terhadap lima parameter, yaitu Elevasi, Curah Hujan, Tutupan Lahan, Drainage Density, dan Pasang Surut. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Lahan Terbangun mengalami peningkatan dari 1312,45 Ha (47,41%) menjadi 1421,30 Ha (51,34%) dan penurunan Lahan Terbuka dari 333,73 Ha (11,58%) menjadi 192,78 Ha (6,96%). Di sisi lain, vegetasi justru mengalami peningkatan dari 26,85% menjadi 29,36%, meskipun tidak cukup untuk mengimbangi laju konversi lahan secara keseluruhan. Secara spasial, kelas kerawanan Tinggi hingga Sangat Tinggi terkonsentrasi di bagian timur wilayah kajian yang didominasi kawasan terbangun dan industri, dan terbukti konsisten dengan data historis kejadian banjir rob Kota Surabaya. Konversi lahan non terbangun menjadi Lahan Terbangun berkontribusi pada penurunan kemampuan infiltrasi wilayah kajian yang secara tidak langsung memperparah kondisi kerawanan banjir rob.
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The northern coastal area of Surabaya City is a region highly susceptible to tidal flooding (rob) due to a combination of low topography, tidal dynamics, and intensive urbanization pressure. This study aims to analyze land cover change dynamics, map tidal flood susceptibility zones, and examine the relationship between land cover change and tidal flood susceptibility levels in the northern coastal area of Surabaya during the 2016–2024 period. Land cover classification was performed using the Random Forest algorithm based on orthophoto data derived from UAV Photogrammetry technology, achieving Overall Accuracy values of 86.25% and 89% and Kappa coefficients of 0.817 and 0.853 for the respective periods. Susceptibility parameter weighting was conducted using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, involving 8 of 15 expert respondents who satisfied the consistency requirement, yielding the highest weights for the Elevation (34%) and Tidal (24%) parameters. Susceptibility zone mapping was performed through weighted overlay of five parameters, namely Elevation, Rainfall, Land Cover, Drainage Density, and Tidal Level. The results indicate that built-up land increased from 1,312.45 Ha (47.41%) to 1,421.30 Ha (51.34%), while open land decreased from 333.73 Ha (11.58%) to 192.78 Ha (6.96%). Meanwhile, vegetation cover increased from 26.85% to 29.36%, although this increase was insufficient to offset the overall rate of land conversion. Spatially, High to Very High susceptibility classes were concentrated in the eastern
part of the study area, which is dominated by built-up and industrial zones, and were found to be consistent with historical records of tidal flooding events in Surabaya City. The conversion of non-built-up land into built-up land contributed to a reduction in the study area's infiltration capacity, indirectly exacerbating tidal flood susceptibility conditions.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | AHP, Banjir Rob, Tutupan Lahan, Random Forest, Weighted Overlay, Tidal Flooding, Land Cover |
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GB Physical geography > GB1399.2 Flood forecasting. G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GC Oceanography > GC89 Sea Level T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) > TA1637 Image processing--Digital techniques. Image analysis--Data processing. U Military Science > U Military Science (General) > UG Military Engineering > UG1242.D7 Unmanned aerial vehicles. Drone aircraft |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Geomatics Engineering |
| Depositing User: | Vina Agustina |
| Date Deposited: | 21 Jul 2026 06:43 |
| Last Modified: | 21 Jul 2026 06:43 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/136097 |
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