Prioritisasi Lokasi Program Dedieselisasi Pembangkit Listrik di Maluku dan Maluku Utara Menggunakan Fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS dengan Analisis Pareto Frontier

Bua, David Masalle (2026) Prioritisasi Lokasi Program Dedieselisasi Pembangkit Listrik di Maluku dan Maluku Utara Menggunakan Fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS dengan Analisis Pareto Frontier. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Transisi energi pada sistem kelistrikan terisolasi di wilayah kepulauan terkendala ketergantungan tinggi pada bahan bakar fosil yang menyebabkan biaya pokok penyediaan dan emisi karbon yang besar. Penentuan prioritas konversi menjadi sulit karena ratusan pembangkit diesel tersebar dengan karakteristik finansial, teknis, dan lingkungan yang sangat beragam, sehingga dibutuhkan dasar keputusan yang terukur. Penelitian ini bertujuan menyusun peta jalan tahapan investasi konversi Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Diesel ke energi terbarukan (dedieselisasi) yang optimal di Maluku dan Maluku Utara dengan mengintegrasikan dimensi finansial, teknis-operasional, dan lingkungan, sehingga prioritas lokasi ditetapkan secara objektif dan menyeimbangkan efisiensi anggaran investasi jaringan dengan dampak pengurangan emisi. Evaluasi mencakup 156 lokasi PLTD pada skema pembangunan Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Surya oleh produsen listrik swasta, dinilai melalui enam sub-kriteria. Pendekatan hibrida memadukan Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process untuk pembobotan kriteria berbasis preferensi lima pakar, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution untuk menghitung skor preferensi multikriteria, kemudian analisis dual Pareto Frontier untuk memetakan solusi efisien dari perspektif anggaran jaringan dan reduksi emisi. Pembobotan menempatkan emisi karbon dan biaya pokok penyediaan sebagai faktor paling dominan. Sintesis dual Pareto mengklasifikasikan seluruh lokasi ke dalam tiga fase investasi. Fase 1 (Quick Wins) ditempati tunggal oleh PLTD Olong, yang menggerakkan 4,53 persen total potensi reduksi emisi hanya dengan 0,58 persen kebutuhan investasi jaringan. Fase 2 (Strategis) beranggotakan enam lokasi, yaitu PLTD Kobisonta, PLTD SW Weda, PLTD Moa, PLTD Saparua, PLTD Umiyal, dan PLTD Pulau Gala, sedangkan 149 lokasi lainnya dipetakan ke Fase 3 (Jangka Panjang) yang dieksekusi bertahap sesuai ketersediaan pembiayaan. Struktur prioritas ini terbukti robust terhadap variasi bobot kriteria. Kontribusi utama penelitian adalah model keputusan multikriteria yang menyaring solusi non-dominan untuk menyeimbangkan efisiensi anggaran dan dampak iklim secara bertahap.
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The energy transition in isolated power systems across archipelagic regions is constrained by a high dependence on fossil fuels, resulting in substantial generation costs and carbon emissions. Determining conversion priorities is challenging because hundreds of diesel power plants are geographically dispersed and exhibit highly diverse financial, technical, and environmental characteristics, thereby requiring a measurable decision-making basis. This study aims to develop an optimal staged investment roadmap for converting Diesel Power Plants to renewable energy, known as dedieselization, in Maluku and North Maluku by integrating financial, technical-operational, and environmental dimensions. Accordingly, location priorities can be determined objectively while balancing the efficiency of network investment budgets with the impact of emission reduction. The evaluation covers 156 diesel power plant locations under a Solar Power Plant development scheme involving independent power producers and is assessed using six sub-criteria. A hybrid approach is employed by combining the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process to determine criteria weights based on the preferences of five experts, the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution to calculate multicriteria preference scores, and dual Pareto Frontier analysis to map efficient solutions from the perspectives of network investment budgets and emission reduction. The weighting results indicate that carbon emissions and generation costs are the most dominant factors. The dual Pareto synthesis classifies all sites into three investment phases. Phase 1 (Quick Wins) is occupied solely by the Olong diesel power plant, which accounts for 4.53 percent of the total potential emission reduction with only 0.58 percent of the required network investment. Phase 2 (Strategic) comprises six sites, namely Kobisonta, SW Weda, Moa, Saparua, Umiyal, and Pulau Gala, while the remaining 149 sites are mapped to Phase 3 (Long-Term), to be executed gradually according to financing availability. This priority structure is proven robust under variations in criteria weights. The main contribution of this study is a multicriteria decision-making model that filters non-dominated solutions to progressively balance budget efficiency and climate impact.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Dedieselisasi; Fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS; Pareto Frontier; Transisi Energi De-dieselization; Energy Transition; Fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS; Pareto Frontier
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.62 Decision support systems
Divisions:	Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT)
Depositing User:	David Masalle Bua
Date Deposited:	22 Jul 2026 04:46
Last Modified:	22 Jul 2026 04:46
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/136211

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