Hae, Nicholas Alexander (2026) Pemodelan Banjir Rob Jangka Panjang Berbasis Multifaktor: Penurunan Tanah dan Kenaikan Permukaan Air Laut untuk Proyeksi Genangan dan Rekomendasi Mitigasi di Pesisir Demak. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Kabupaten Demak merupakan salah satu wilayah pesisir Pantai Utara Jawa (Pantura) yang mengalami peningkatan risiko banjir rob akibat kombinasi kenaikan muka air laut (Sea Level Rise/SLR) dan penurunan tanah (land subsidence). Penelitian ini menerapkan Enhanced Bathtub Model (eBTM) sebagai metode pemetaan genangan berbasis raster yang mempertimbangkan konektivitas hidrologi, sehingga menghasilkan estimasi genangan yang lebih realistis dibandingkan bathtub model sederhana. Model mengintegrasikan empat parameter fisik utama, yaitu SLR berdasarkan proyeksi IPCC AR6 skenario SSP2-4.5, penurunan tanah hasil analisis DInSAR Sentinel-1, Mean High Water Spring (MHWS) dari data TPXO10v2a yang divalidasi dengan stasiun Badan Informasi Geospasial (BIG), dan wave setup dari data ERA5. Koreksi Digital Elevation Model (DEM) dilakukan terhadap Forest and Buildings removed Copernicus DEM (FABDEM) dengan mengakumulasi laju penurunan tanah, kemudian divalidasi dengan pengukuran RTK-GNSS di lapangan yang menghasilkan nilai RMSE ketinggian genangan sebesar 0,237 m dan MAE sebesar 0,214 m. Proyeksi genangan dilakukan untuk empat skenario tahun, yaitu 2025, 2050, 2075, dan 2100. Hasil pemodelan menunjukkan peningkatan luas genangan yang signifikan dari 3735,58 ha (2025) menjadi 37772,04 ha (2100), atau meningkat sebesar 911,1% dalam kurun waktu 75 tahun, dengan kontribusi penurunan tanah mendominasi 79–83% dari total kenaikan muka air relatif. Berdasarkan hasil proyeksi tersebut, disusun rekomendasi mitigasi struktural, ekosistem, dan non-struktural yang meliputi pembangunan tanggul pesisir bertahap pada segmen prioritas dengan elevasi disesuaikan terhadap proyeksi Total Water Level (TWL) tahun 2100, pengembangan sistem polder pada wilayah bergenangan permanen, rehabilitasi mangrove, serta pengendalian pengambilan air tanah untuk mengurangi laju penurunan tanah. Penelitian ini diharapkan menjadi dasar ilmiah bagi pemerintah daerah dalam merumuskan kebijakan mitigasi banjir rob jangka panjang di Kabupaten Demak.
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Demak Regency is one of the coastal areas along the North Coast of Java (Pantura) that faces an increased risk of tidal flooding due to a combination of sea level rise (SLR) and land subsidence. This study applies the Enhanced Bathtub Model (eBTM) as a raster-based inundation mapping method that accounts for hydrological connectivity, thereby producing more realistic inundation estimates compared to the simple bathtub model. The model integrates four main physical parameters: SLR based on the IPCC AR6 SSP2-4.5 scenario projection; land subsidence derived from DInSAR Sentinel-1 analysis; Mean High Water Spring (MHWS) from TPXO10v2a data validated against Geospatial Information Agency (BIG) tide stations; and wave setup from ERA5 data. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) correction was performed on the Forest and Buildings removed Copernicus DEM (FABDEM) by accounting for the accumulated rate of land subsidence, followed by validation using RTK-GNSS field measurements. The resulting inundation height validation yielded an RMSE of 0.237 m and an MAE of 0.214 m, both categorized as good agreement. Flood projections were conducted for four scenario years: 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100. The validated eBTM modeling results show a significant increase in inundation area from 3,735.58 hectares (2025) to 37,772.04 hectares (2100), an increase of 911.1% over 75 years, with land subsidence contributing 79–83% of the total relative sea-level rise. Based on these projections, structural, ecosystem-based, and non-structural mitigation recommendations were formulated, including the phased construction of coastal levees in priority segments with elevations adjusted to the 2100 Total Water Level (TWL) projection, the development of polder systems in permanently inundated areas, mangrove rehabilitation, and control of groundwater extraction to reduce the rate of land subsidence. This study is expected to serve as a scientific basis for local governments in formulating long-term tidal flood mitigation policies in Demak Regency.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Banjir Rob, Enhanced Bathtub Model, Land Subsidence, Sea Level Rise, Demak, Tidal Flooding, Enhanced Bathtub Model, Land Subsidence, Sea Level Rise, Demak |
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GC Oceanography > GC89 Sea Level |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning > Geomatics Engineering > 29202-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Nicholas Alexander Hae |
| Date Deposited: | 22 Jul 2026 08:19 |
| Last Modified: | 22 Jul 2026 08:19 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/136294 |
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