Formulasi Strategi Peningkatan Daya Tangkal Pertahanan Maritim Di Laut Natuna Utara Dalam Mendukung Minimum Essential Force (MEF) Berbasis Sistem Dinamik

Nabil, Ahmad (2026) Formulasi Strategi Peningkatan Daya Tangkal Pertahanan Maritim Di Laut Natuna Utara Dalam Mendukung Minimum Essential Force (MEF) Berbasis Sistem Dinamik. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Latar Belakang: Laut Natuna Utara berada pada jalur strategis dan memiliki peran penting bagi keamanan maritim Indonesia. Kawasan ini menghadapi pelanggaran wilayah, aktivitas kapal asing, dan dinamika geopolitik Laut Cina Selatan. Situasi tersebut menuntut Indonesia memiliki daya tangkal maritim yang kuat. Minimum Essential Force (MEF) digunakan sebagai kerangka pembangunan kekuatan pertahanan, namun capaian MEF pada matra laut masih belum sesuai target sehingga memengaruhi kemampuan operasional TNI Angkatan Laut dalam menjaga kedaulatan nasional.Permasalahan: Belum optimalnya capaian MEF pada matra laut serta meningkatnya aktivitas grey zone dan ancaman eksternal berdampak pada rendahnya efektivitas daya tangkal Indonesia di Laut Natuna Utara. Diperlukan pemahaman sistemik mengenai faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi daya tangkal dan bagaimana hubungan antarvariabel tersebut membentuk kemampuan pertahanan maritim.Tujuan: Penelitian ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi faktor yang memengaruhi daya tangkal maritim dan merumuskan strategi peningkatan daya tangkal guna mendukung pencapaian MEF menggunakan model sistem dinamik, dengan mempertimbangkan faktor internal dan eksternal.Metode: Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan sistem dinamik melalui penyusunan Causal Loop Diagram dan pengembangan Stock and Flow Diagram sebagai dasar formulasi model kuantitatif. Data diperoleh dari literatur akademik, laporan pemerintah, publikasi pertahanan maritim, serta hasil kerja sama dengan Sekolah Tinggi Teknologi Angkatan Laut (STTAL).Hasil: Hasil penelitian ini berupa model sistem dinamik yang direpresentasikan melalui Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) dan Stock Flow Diagram (SFD), serta simulasi skenario Do Nothing dan Alutsista Modernization. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa strategi Alutsista Modernization efektif dalam meningkatkan daya tangkal pertahanan maritim Indonesia. Melalui intervensi pada kapasitas anggaran dan optimalisasi alokasi modernisasi alutsista, strategi ini mampu menghasilkan nilai Deterrence Effect sebesar 75,21% dan meningkatkan capaian Minimum Essential Force (MEF) hingga 87,54%. Hasil ini membuktikan bahwa penguatan alutsista secara terarah merupakan langkah strategis yang paling efektif dalam mendukung pencapaian daya tangkal dan target MEF maritim di Laut Natuna Utara.Nilai Tambah: Penelitian ini memberikan kontribusi teoritis berupa pemodelan hubungan kausal faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi daya tangkal maritim serta pengembangan kerangka MEF berbasis sistem dinamik. Secara praktis, penelitian ini menyediakan dasar analisis dan bahan perumusan strategi untuk memperkuat pertahanan maritim Indonesia, khususnya pada peningkatan daya tangkal dan pencapaian MEF di Laut Natuna Utara.
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Context: The North Natuna Sea lies along a strategic maritime corridor and plays an essential role in Indonesia’s maritime security. The area faces repeated boundary violations, foreign vessel activities, and geopolitical tensions linked to the South China Sea. These conditions require Indonesia to maintain a strong maritime deterrence posture. The Minimum Essential Force (MEF) serves as the framework for developing defense capability, yet its progress in the naval domain remains below target, limiting the operational readiness of the Indonesian Navy in safeguarding national sovereignty.Problem: The suboptimal achievement of MEF in the naval domain, together with the increasing grey zone activities and external threats, has reduced the effectiveness of Indonesia’s deterrence in the North Natuna Sea. A systemic understanding is needed regarding the factors influencing deterrence and how the interrelationships among these variables shape maritime defense capability.Objectives: This study aims to identify the factors that influence maritime deterrence and to formulate strategies for strengthening deterrence in support of MEF achievement through a system dynamics approach.Method: This research employed a system dynamics approach through the development of a Causal Loop Diagram and a Stock and Flow Diagram as the basis for quantitative model formulation. Data were obtained from academic literature, government reports, maritime defense publications, and collaborative work with the Indonesian Navy Technology College (STTAL).Results: The results of this study are presented in the form of a system dynamics model represented through a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and a Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD), as well as simulations of the Do Nothing and Alutsista Modernization scenarios. The findings show that the Alutsista Modernization strategy is effective in strengthening Indonesia’s maritime deterrence. Through interventions in budget capacity and the optimization of defense equipment modernization allocation, this strategy was able to produce a Deterrence Effect value of 75.21% and increase the Minimum Essential Force (MEF) achievement to 87.54%. These results demonstrate that targeted modernization of defense equipment is the most effective strategic step in supporting deterrence capability and naval MEF achievement in the North Natuna Sea.Added Values: This study provides a theoretical contribution in the form of a causal model of the factors influencing maritime deterrence and the development of a system dynamics-based MEF framework. Practically, it offers an analytical basis and strategic input for strengthening Indonesia’s maritime defense, particularly in improving deterrence and achieving MEF in the North Natuna Sea.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Daya Tangkal, MEF, Pertahanan Maritim, Simulasi, Sistem Dinamik, Deterrence, Maritime Defense, MEF, Simulation, System Dynamics
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.62 Simulation T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.62 Decision support systems
Divisions:	Faculty of Intelligent Electrical and Informatics Technology (ELECTICS) > Information System > 57201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Ahmad Nabil
Date Deposited:	24 Jul 2026 03:14
Last Modified:	24 Jul 2026 03:14
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/136654

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