Pemodelan Potensi Aliran Banjir Lahar Dingin dari Material Vulkanik Menggunakan Pendekatan Digital Twin di Gunung Merapi

Saputra, Mochamad Khavid (2026) Pemodelan Potensi Aliran Banjir Lahar Dingin dari Material Vulkanik Menggunakan Pendekatan Digital Twin di Gunung Merapi. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

Text 5017221006-Undergraduate_Thesis.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (11MB) | Request a copy

Abstract

Gunung Merapi merupakan gunung api bertipe stratovolcano yang terletak di perbatasan Provinsi Jawa Tengah dan Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta. Aktivitas vulkanik yang berlangsung secara terus-menerus menyebabkan akumulasi material piroklastik dan guguran lava pada lereng yang tidak stabil, sehingga berpotensi termobilisasi menjadi banjir lahar dingin, terutama saat terjadi hujan dengan intensitas tinggi. Penelitian ini bertujuan memprediksi potensi aliran banjir lahar dingin menggunakan pendekatan Digital Twin berbasis perangkat lunak open source D-Claw. Parameter fisis material lahar diperoleh melalui proses parameterisasi terhadap tiga kejadian banjir lahar dingin Gunung Merapi periode 2010-2011. Hasil parameterisasi divalidasi secara spasial menggunakan backscatter difference serta perbandingan ketebalan endapan simulasi dengan data stratigrafi lapangan di Kali Adem. Validasi menunjukkan hubungan yang relatif berbanding lurus antara kedalaman aliran simulasi dan nilai anomali backscatter. Selain itu, ketebalan endapan hasil simulasi sebesar 2.8 m relatif mendekati hasil pengukuran stratigrafi lapangan sebesar 3 m. Model prediksi dikembangkan menggunakan skenario terburuk dengan intensitas hujan 53 mm/jam selama 8 jam per hari dalam akumulasi 21 hari. Presipitasi tersebut dikonversi menjadi volume limpasan menggunakan pendekatan skenario terburuk sehingga diperoleh fraksi padatan awal sebesar 0.59. Hasil simulasi pada lereng selatan menunjukkan potensi remobilisasi material vulkanik sebesar 789.600 m³ dengan jangkauan aliran sejauh 8.56 km dan waktu tempuh 27 menit. Pada lereng barat-barat daya, volume material termobilisasi mencapai 835.980 m³ dengan jangkauan aliran sejauh 5.87 km pada waktu tempuh yang sama. Analisis spasial terhadap sebaran area terdampak menunjukkan bahwa kawasan berpotensi terdampak umumnya berada pada Kawasan Rawan Bencana III. Kondisi ini dipengaruhi oleh karakteristik aktivitas vulkanik Merapi yang didominasi guguran lava dan awan panas eksplosivitas rendah (VEI 0-1), sehingga material vulkanik masih terkonsentrasi di sekitar hulu dan menjadi sumber utama pembentukan banjir lahar dingin pada saat hujan intensitas tinggi.
====================================================================================================================================
Mount Merapi is a stratovolcano located on the border of Central Java Province and the Special Region of Yogyakarta. Its persistent volcanic activity leads to the accumulation of pyroclastic material and lava avalanche deposits on unstable slopes, which are susceptible to remobilization as cold lahar flows, particularly during high-intensity rainfall events. This study aims to predict the potential of cold lahar flows using a Digital Twin approach based on the open-source software D-Claw. The physical parameters of lahar material were obtained through parameterization of three major cold lahar events at Mount Merapi during the 2010-2011 period and spatially validated using backscatter difference analysis and deposit thickness comparison at Kali Adem. Validation results indicate a proportional relationship between simulated flow depth and backscatter anomaly values, with a simulated deposit thickness of 2.8 m closely approximating the field measurement of 3 m. The predictive model was developed under a worst-case scenario of 53 mm/hr rainfall over 8 hours per day for 21 cumulative days, yielding an initial solid fraction of 0.59. On the southern flank, simulation results indicate a potential remobilization of 789.600 m³ with a flow reach of 8.56 km and a travel time of 27 minutes, while the west-southwest flank shows a mobilized volume of 835.980 m³ with a flow reach of 5.87 km at the same travel time. Spatial analysis reveals that potentially impacted areas generally fall within Hazard Zone III (Kawasan Rawan Bencana III), attributed to Merapi's low-explosivity activity (VEI 0-1) dominated by lava avalanches and pyroclastic density currents, which concentrates volcanic material near the upper catchment as the primary source of cold lahar formation.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Cold Lahar Floods, D-Claw, Digital Twin, Potential Hazard Map, Volcanic Material, Banjir Lahar Dingin, D-Claw, Digital Twin, Material Vulkanik, Peta Potensi Bencana
Subjects:	Q Science > Q Science (General) > Q325.5 Machine learning. Support vector machines. Q Science > QE Geology > QE604 Deformation
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Geophysics Engineering > 33201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Mochamad Khavid Saputra
Date Deposited:	24 Jul 2026 02:21
Last Modified:	24 Jul 2026 02:21
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/136950

Actions (login required)

View Item