Pengendalian Persediaan Dealer Ban Kendaraan Bermotor Berbasis Model Sistem Dinamik

Ramadhan, Faiz Musyaffa (2026) Pengendalian Persediaan Dealer Ban Kendaraan Bermotor Berbasis Model Sistem Dinamik. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pengelolaan persediaan berperan penting dalam menjaga ketersediaan produk dan efisiensi biaya operasional. CV. Motorindo Sejahtera sebagai dealer ban kendaraan bermotor menghadapi kendala dalam menentukan jumlah pengadaan yang sesuai dengan permintaan pasar. Keputusan pengadaan yang masih didasarkan pada pertimbangan subjektif berpotensi menghasilkan tingkat persediaan yang kurang optimal sehingga memengaruhi kemampuan perusahaan memenuhi permintaan pelanggan dan meningkatkan biaya persediaan. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan model simulasi sistem dinamik untuk mengevaluasi berbagai kebijakan pengadaan guna menentukan kebijakan yang optimal. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan sistem dinamik melalui penyusunan Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) dan Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD). Model terdiri atas tiga submodel, yaitu Inner Tube, Tubeless, dan Inventory Cost, dengan menggunakan data historis perusahaan periode Januari 2023 hingga Desember 2025. Model divalidasi melalui validitas struktur menggunakan fitur Model Check dan Units Check pada Vensim serta validitas perilaku pada variabel Inner Tube Sales, Inner Tube Procurement, Tubeless Sales, dan Tubeless Procurement. Hasil validasi menunjukkan model memenuhi validitas struktur dan perilaku dengan nilai mean comparison (E1) kurang dari 5% dan error variance comparison (E2) kurang dari 30%. Model digunakan untuk mensimulasikan tiga skenario, yaitu Do Nothing, Demand Forecasting, dan Demand Forecasting with Safety Stock. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa skenario Demand Forecasting menghasilkan biaya persediaan terendah dengan menurunkan rata-rata inventory cost dari Rp85.941.004,69 menjadi Rp60.478.148,44, namun menurunkan tingkat penjualan pada kedua submodel. Sementara itu, skenario Demand Forecasting with Safety Stock mampu meningkatkan tingkat penjualan pada submodel Inner Tube, mempertahankan tingkat penjualan pada submodel Tubeless, serta menghasilkan rata-rata inventory cost sebesar Rp80.447.584,38. Berdasarkan perbandingan seluruh skenario, skenario Demand Forecasting with Safety Stock dipilih sebagai kebijakan optimal karena memberikan keseimbangan yang lebih baik antara pemenuhan permintaan, tingkat persediaan, dan biaya persediaan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penerapan kebijakan pengadaan berbasis demand forecasting yang didukung safety stock dapat meningkatkan efektivitas pengelolaan persediaan pada dealer ban kendaraan bermotor.
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Inventory management plays an important role in ensuring product availability and improving operational cost efficiency. CV. Motorindo Sejahtera, a motorcycle tire dealer, faces challenges in determining procurement quantities that align with market demand. Procurement decisions that are still based on subjective judgment may result in suboptimal inventory levels, affecting the company's ability to meet customer demand while increasing inventory costs. This study aims to develop a system dynamics simulation model to evaluate alternative procurement policies and determine the optimal procurement policy for the company. This study employs a system dynamics approach by developing a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and a Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD). The proposed model consists of three submodels: Inner Tube, Tubeless, and Inventory Cost, using the company's historical data from January 2023 to December 2025. The model was validated through structural validation using the Model Check and Units Check features in Vensim, as well as behavioral validation on the Inner Tube Sales, Inner Tube Procurement, Tubeless Sales, and Tubeless Procurement variables. The validation results indicate that the model satisfies both structural and behavioral validity, with mean comparison (E1) values below 5% and error variance comparison (E2) values below 30%. The validated model was used to simulate three scenarios: Do Nothing, Demand Forecasting, and Demand Forecasting with Safety Stock. The simulation results show that the Demand Forecasting scenario achieved the lowest inventory cost by reducing the average inventory cost from IDR 85,941,004.69 to IDR 60,478,148.44; however, it also reduced sales levels in both submodels. Meanwhile, the Demand Forecasting with Safety Stock scenario increased sales in the Inner Tube submodel, maintained sales in the Tubeless submodel, and resulted in an average inventory cost of IDR 80,447,584.38. Based on the comparison of all scenarios, the Demand Forecasting with Safety Stock scenario was selected as the optimal policy because it provides a better balance between demand fulfillment, inventory levels, and inventory costs. The findings indicate that implementing a demand forecasting–based procurement policy supported by safety stock can improve the effectiveness of inventory management in a motorcycle tire dealership.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Sistem Dinamik, Manajemen Persediaan, Demand Forecasting, Safety Stock, Pengendalian Persediaan, System Dynamics, Inventory Management, Demand Forecasting, Safety Stock, Inventory Control
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.62 Decision support systems
Divisions:	Faculty of Intelligent Electrical and Informatics Technology (ELECTICS) > Information System > 57201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Faiz Musyaffa Ramadhan
Date Deposited:	28 Jul 2026 03:04
Last Modified:	28 Jul 2026 03:04
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/137257

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