Pemodelan Faktor-Faktor Yang Berpengaruh Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terdidik Di Provinsi Jawa Barat Dengan Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated

Kresnaningrum, Edvina (2026) Pemodelan Faktor-Faktor Yang Berpengaruh Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terdidik Di Provinsi Jawa Barat Dengan Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pembangunan ekonomi suatu wilayah bertujuan meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat melalui pertumbuhan ekonomi berkelanjutan dan penguatan kualitas sumber daya manusia (SDM), namun peningkatan kualitas SDM belum sepenuhnya berhasil menekan pengangguran pada kelompok berpendidikan. Berdasarkan data BPS, pengangguran di Indonesia selama 2020-2024 didominasi oleh kelompok pengangguran terdidik yaitu angkatan kerja berpendidikan SMA/sederajat ke atas yang tidak terserap di pasar kerja. Provinsi Jawa Barat tercatat sebagai provinsi dengan tingkat pengangguran terdidik tertinggi di Indonesia, mencapai 9,96 persen pada tahun 2024 dan melampaui rata-rata nasional sebesar 7,09 persen. Meskipun pertumbuhan ekonomi Jawa Barat mencapai 5,02 persen dan menempati posisi ketiga tertinggi di Pulau Jawa, hal tersebut mengindikasikan ketidakselarasan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan penyerapan tenaga kerja terdidik. Penelitian ini memodelkan faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap tingkat pengangguran terdidik di 27 Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Jawa Barat tahun 2024, meliputi PDRB sektor perdagangan besar dan eceran; reparasi mobil dan sepeda motor, upah minimum kabupaten/kota, penanaman modal asing, indeks pembangunan manusia, dan tingkat partisipasi angkatan kerja. Karena pola hubungan antarvariabel tidak selalu linier, metode yang digunakan adalah regresi nonparametrik Spline Truncated dengan pemilihan titik knot optimal berdasarkan nilai Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) minimum. Model terbaik diperoleh pada kombinasi knot (3,3,3,2,3) dengan koefisien determinasi sebesar 94,9 persen, dan variabel PDRB sektor perdagangan besar dan eceran; reparasi mobil dan sepeda motor, upah minimum kabupaten/kota, penanaman modal asing, indeks pembangunan manusia, dan tingkat partisipasi angkatan kerja berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran terdidik di Jawa Barat.
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Economic development in a region aims to improve public welfare through sustainable economic growth and the strengthening of human resource quality. Improvements in human resource quality have not fully succeeded in reducing unemployment among the educated group. Based on data from the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), unemployment in Indonesia during 2020-2024 was dominated by educated unemployment, referring to the labor force with a senior high school education or above who have not been absorbed into the labor market. West Java Province recorded the highest rate of educated unemployment in Indonesia, reaching 9,96 percent in 2024 and exceeding the national average of 7,09 percent. Despite West Java's economic growth of 5,02 percent, which ranked third highest in Java, this condition indicates a misalignment between economic growth and the absorption of educated workers. This study models the factors influencing the educated unemployment rate across 27 regencies/cities in West Java Province in 2024, encompassing the contribution percentage of GDRP in the wholesale and retail trade sector; motor vehicle and motorcycle repair, minimum wage, foreign direct ivestmen, human development index, and labor force participation rate. Since the relationship patterns among variables are not always linear, the method employed is Spline Truncated nonparametric regression with optimal knot point selection based on the minimum Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) value. The best model was obtained at a knot combination of (3,3,3,2,3) with a coefficient of determination of 94,9 percent, and the GRDP of the wholesale and retail trade sector; motor vehicle and motorcycle repair, regency/city minimum wage, foreign direct investment, human development index, and labor force participation rate were found to significantly influence the educated unemployment rate in West Java.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Generalized Cross Validation, Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated, Titik Knot, Tingkat Pengangguran Terdidik, Educated Unemployment Rate, Generalized Cross Validation, Knot Points, Regresi Nonparametric Spline Truncated
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation. Logistic regression analysis. Q Science
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Edvina Kresnaningrum
Date Deposited:	28 Jul 2026 08:22
Last Modified:	28 Jul 2026 08:22
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/137474

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