Pemodelan Risiko Gempa Megathrust Pada Infrastruktur Kereta Cepat Jakarta Bandung (KCJB) Menggunakan Catastrophe Model Berbasis Distribusi Kaniadakis-Weibull

Putra, Michael Arkana Wimar (2026) Pemodelan Risiko Gempa Megathrust Pada Infrastruktur Kereta Cepat Jakarta Bandung (KCJB) Menggunakan Catastrophe Model Berbasis Distribusi Kaniadakis-Weibull. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

Text 5006221006-Undergraduate_Thesis.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (6MB) | Request a copy

Abstract

Potensi gempa megathrust Selat Sunda merupakan salah satu ancaman utama terhadap infrastruktur strategis nasional, diantaranya Kereta Cepat Jakarta-Bandung (KCJB) yang berada pada wilayah dengan pengaruh aktivitas subduksi. Keterbatasan data historis kejadian gempa besar menyebabkan pendekatan deterministik kurang mampu merepresentasikan ketidakpastian kejadian gempa ekstrem sehingga diperlukan pendekatan probabilistik melalui kerangka catastrophe model. Penelitian ini bertujuan membangun stochastic event set dan mengestimasi risiko finansial kerusakan infrastruktur KCJB akibat gempa megathrust Selat Sunda. Pemodelan dilakukan melalui empat komponen utama, yaitu hazard module, inventory module, vulnerability module, dan loss module. Pada hazard module, skenario gempa dibangkitkan menggunakan simulasi Monte Carlo dengan distribusi Kaniadakis-Weibull untuk memodelkan magnitudo gempa serta distribusi empiris untuk kedalaman gempa. Intensitas guncangan dihitung menggunakan pendekatan kombinasi tiga Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE), yaitu Atkinson-Boore, BC Hydro, dan Zhao. Selanjutnya, tingkat kerusakan infrastruktur diestimasi menggunakan vulnerability curve berbasis Spectral Acceleration (SA), sedangkan distribusi kerugian finansial dimodelkan melalui Event Loss Table (ELT), distribusi Poisson untuk frekuensi kejadian, pendekatan Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) untuk severitas kerugian, serta simulasi Monte Carlo pada model risiko kolektif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa distribusi Kaniadakis-Weibull mampu merepresentasikan karakteristik magnitudo gempa dengan baik dan menghasilkan 133.000 skenario kejadian gempa sintetis. Analisis risiko menunjukkan bahwa nilai Average Annual Loss (AAL) sebesar Rp1.675.004.647 pada skenario Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) 100 tahun, kemudian menurun menjadi Rp670.001.859 pada ARI 250 tahun dan Rp335.000.929 pada ARI 500 tahun. Pada tingkat kepercayaan 99%, diperoleh nilai Value at Risk (VaR) sebesar Rp49.164.696.987 dan Tail Value at Risk (TVaR) sebesar Rp177.415.799.825 untuk skenario ARI 100 tahun, dengan Return Period (RP) masing-masing sebesar 12,29 tahun, 17,50 tahun, dan 34,62 tahun pada tingkat kepercayaan 90%, 95%, dan 99%.
======================================================================================================================================
The potential occurrence of the Sunda Strait megathrust earthquake poses one of the major threats to Indonesia's strategic infrastructure, including the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway (KCJB), which is located within the influence zone of an active subduction system. The limited historical records of major earthquakes make deterministic approaches inadequate for representing the uncertainty associated with extreme earthquake events, thereby necessitating a probabilistic approach through a catastrophe model. This study aims to develop a stochastic event set and estimate the financial risk of damage to KCJB infrastructure resulting from the Sunda Strait megathrust earthquake. The modeling framework consists of four main components, namely the hazard module, inventory module, vulnerability module, and loss module. In the hazard module, synthetic earthquake scenarios are generated using Monte Carlo simulation, with the Kaniadakis-Weibull distribution employed to model earthquake magnitudes and the empirical distribution used to represent earthquake depths. Ground shaking intensity is estimated using a combination of three Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), namely Atkinson-Boore, BC Hydro, and Zhao. Subsequently, the level of infrastructure damage is estimated using vulnerability curves based on Spectral Acceleration (SA), while the financial loss distribution is modeled through the Event Loss Table (ELT), the Poisson distribution for event frequency, the Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) approach for loss severity, and Monte Carlo simulation within the collective risk model. The results indicate that the Kaniadakis-Weibull distribution adequately represents the characteristics of earthquake magnitudes and successfully generates 133,000 synthetic earthquake scenarios. The risk analysis shows that the Average Annual Loss (AAL) is IDR 1,675,004,647 under the 100-year Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) scenario, decreasing to IDR 670,001,859 under the 250-year ARI scenario and IDR 335,000,929 under the 500-year ARI scenario. At the 99% confidence level, the estimated Value at Risk (VaR) and Tail Value at Risk (TVaR) for the 100-year ARI scenario are IDR 49,164,696,987 and IDR 177,415,799,825, respectively. Meanwhile, the corresponding Return Period (RP) values are 12,29 years, 17,50 years, and 34,62 years at the 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels, respectively.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Megathrust, Catastrophe Model, Kereta Cepat Jakarta-Bandung, Distribusi Kaniadakis-Weibull, Megathrust, Gempa Bumi, Catastrophe Model, Jakarta Bandung High Speed Railway (KCJB), Kaniadakis-Weibull Distribution, Earthquake
Subjects:	Q Science Q Science > Q Science (General) > Q180.55.M38 Mathematical models Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA614.58 Catastrophes Q Science > QE Geology > QE538.8 Earthquakes. Seismology
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Actuaria > 94203-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Michael Arkana Wimar Putra
Date Deposited:	27 Jul 2026 07:44
Last Modified:	27 Jul 2026 07:44
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/137961

Actions (login required)

View Item