Integrasi TCTO (Time Cost Trade Off) Dan Simulasi Monte Carlo Untuk Percepatan Proyek Jalan Tol Solo-Yogyakarta-NYIA Kulonprogo

Adam, Safrizal Ibnu (2026) Integrasi TCTO (Time Cost Trade Off) Dan Simulasi Monte Carlo Untuk Percepatan Proyek Jalan Tol Solo-Yogyakarta-NYIA Kulonprogo. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Penelitian Tugas Akhir ini bertujuan untuk mengoptimalkan waktu dan biaya pelaksanaan proyek pembangunan Jalan Tol Solo–Yogyakarta–NYIA Kulon Progo, khususnya pada segmen STA 39+300 sampai dengan STA 41+600 yang saat ini mengalami keterlambatan dengan deviasi kurva S mencapai 4,944. Masalah utama dalam proyek infrastruktur berskala besar ini adalah tingginya tingkat ketidakpastian lapangan seperti cuaca tidak menentu dan keterbatasan alat seperti concrete paver, yang membuat penjadwalan deterministik kurang akurat. Untuk mengatasi permasalahan tersebut, metode analisis dilakukan dengan mengintegrasikan pendekatan deterministik Time Cost Trade Off (TCTO) dan pendekatan probabilistik Simulasi Monte Carlo. Metode TCTO digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi aktivitas pada lintasan kritis melalui Precedence Diagram Method (PDM) dan menganalisis skenario percepatan (crashing) paling ekonomis menggunakan alternatif penambahan jam kerja lembur (overtime) serta penambahan shift berdasarkan perhitungan cost slope minimum. Sehingga pada metode TCTO didapatkan hasil durasi optimum selama 396 hari dan biaya sebesar Rp. 43.618.668.897,29. Selanjutnya, Simulasi Monte Carlo diterapkan menggunakan distribusi segitiga (triangular distribution) dengan parameter durasi optimis, paling mungkin, dan pesimis untuk memodelkan risiko dan didapatkan probabilitas durasi penjadwalan optimis 387 hari sebesar 0,4%, durasi paling sering 428 hari sebesar 50%, dan durasi pesimis 477 hari dengan probabilitas 99,7%. Hasil utama yang diharapkan dari integrasi ini adalah diperolehnya rekomendasi durasi optimal proyek yang paling efisien secara biaya serta kurva distribusi kumulatif (kurva S probabilistik) yang menyajikan tingkat kepastian penyelesaian proyek secara kuantitatif. Kesimpulan dari rencana penelitian ini akan memberikan instrumen pengendalian jadwal yang adaptif bagi manajer proyek serta kontribusi ilmiah dalam pengembangan manajemen risiko waktu dan biaya pada konstruksi jalan tol di Indonesia.
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This final project aims to optimize the time and cost of implementing the Solo– Yogyakarta–NYIA Kulon Progo Toll Road construction project, specifically for the segment from STA 39+300 to STA 41+600, which is currently experiencing delays with an S-curve deviation of 4.944. The main issue in this large-scale infrastructure project is the high level of on-site uncertainty, such as unpredictable weather and equipment limitations including a shortage of concrete pavers which make deterministic scheduling less accurate. To address these issues, the analysis integrates the deterministic Time-Cost Trade-Off (TCTO) approach with the probabilistic Monte Carlo Simulation approach. The TCTO method was used to identify activities on the critical path via the Precedence Diagram Method (PDM) and to analyze the most economical acceleration (crashing) scenarios using alternatives such as adding overtime hours and additional shifts based on minimum cost slope calculations. Thus, the TCTO method yielded an optimal duration of 396 days and a cost of Rp. 43,618,668,897.29. Next, a Monte Carlo simulation was conducted using a triangular distribution with optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic duration parameters to model risk. The results showed a 0.4% probability of an optimistic schedule duration of 387 days, a 50% probability of the most frequent duration of 428 days, and a 99.7% probability for the pessimistic duration of 477 days. The primary expected outcome of this integration is the derivation of recommendations for the most cost-efficient optimal project duration, as well as a cumulative distribution curve (probabilistic S-curve) that quantitatively presents the level of certainty regarding project completion. The conclusions of this research plan will provide project managers with an adaptive schedule control tool and contribute scientifically to the development of time and cost risk management in toll road construction in Indonesia.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Cost slope, Crashing, Kurva S probabilistik, Lintasan kritis, Overtime, Simulasi Monte Carlo, Time Cost Trade Off.Cost slope, Crashing, Critical path, Monte Carlo simulation, Overtime, Probabilistic S-curve, Time Cost Trade Off.
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Environmental, and Geo Engineering > Civil Engineering > 22201-(S1) Undergraduate Theses
Depositing User:	Safrizal Ibnu Adam
Date Deposited:	28 Jul 2026 06:58
Last Modified:	28 Jul 2026 06:58
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/137979

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