Analisis Dinamika Troposfer dan Variabilitas Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) Berbasis GNSS Meteorologi selama Kejadian Siklon Tropis Senyar (04B)

Purwanto, Fira Anggielia (2026) Analisis Dinamika Troposfer dan Variabilitas Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) Berbasis GNSS Meteorologi selama Kejadian Siklon Tropis Senyar (04B). Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

Text 6016251019-Master_Thesis.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (14MB) | Request a copy

Abstract

Wilayah maritim Indonesia merupakan salah satu pusat konveksi atmosfer yang dipengaruhi oleh dinamika kandungan uap air di troposfer yang menjadi penyebab terbentuknya sistem cuaca ekstrem. Studi ini menganalisis dinamika troposfer dan variabilitas Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) selama peristiwa Siklon Tropis Senyar (04B) di Selat Malaka pada November 2025 yang terkait dengan peningkatan curah hujan ekstrem di wilayah Sumatera Utara dan sekitarnya. Data dari 130 stasiun GNSS-CORS diproses menggunakan metode Precise Point Positioning Ambiguity Resolution (PPP-AR) melalui perangkat lunak PRIDE untuk mendapatkan nilai estimasi Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD), yang kemudian dikonversi menjadi PWV menggunakan skrip pemrograman Python berbasis Pandas dan Xarray. Sebanyak 122 stasiun berhasil terolah secara kontinu dan dibagi ke dalam 4 grup tipologi wilayah. Hasil estimasi kemudian divalidasi menggunakan Total Column Water Vapor ERA5 dan menghasilkan rata-rata korelasi (R) 0,644 dan RMSE 5,48 mm. Selain itu, citra satelit Himawari-9 menggunakan metode RGB digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi distribusi awan konvektif selama siklus badai. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabilitas PWV merupakan respons atmosfer regional terhadap perkembangan Siklon Tropis Senyar. Data ERA5 menunjukkan TCWV maksimum sebesar 79,7 mm yang berada pada kisaran 70–85 mm selama fase puncak siklon, sedangkan GNSS merekam puncak PWV sebesar 68,9 mm pada stasiun pesisir terdekat (CLSA) dan 80 mm pada stasiun pegunungan (CBLG) yang dipengaruhi efek orografis. Dinamika penurunan tajam PWV pasca-puncak juga terindikasi sebagai konveksi masif uap air menjadi presipitasi intens. Analisis cross correlation menunjukkan keandalan PWV sebagai precursor cuaca ekstrem dengan 56,4% stasiun mendahului kejadian hujan, di mana wilayah pesisir menunjukkan tingkat konsistensi arah lead time tertinggi.
=======================================================================================================================================
The Indonesian maritime region is a hub of atmospheric convection driven by tropospheric water vapor dynamics, which trigger extreme weather systems. This study analyzes tropospheric dynamics and Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) variability during Tropical Cyclone Senyar (04B) in the Strait of Malacca (November 2025), an event associated with extreme rainfall in North Sumatra and surrounding areas. Data from 130 GNSS-CORS stations were processed using the Precise Point Positioning Ambiguity Resolution (PPP-AR) method via PRIDE software to estimate Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD), which was subsequently converted to PWV using Python scripts based on Pandas and Xarray. Data from 122 stations were successfully processed continuously and categorized into four regional typology groups. The estimates were validated against ERA5 Total Column Water Vapor (TCWV) data, yielding an average correlation (R) of 0.644 and an RMSE of 5.48 mm. Additionally, Himawari-9 satellite imagery (RGB method) was used to identify convective cloud distribution throughout the storm cycle. The results indicate that PWV variability reflects the regional atmospheric response to the development of Tropical Cyclone Senyar. ERA5 data showed a maximum TCWV of 79.7 mm (within the 70–85 mm range) during the cyclone's peak, while GNSS recorded peak PWV values of 68.9 mm at the nearest coastal station (CLSA) and 80 mm at a mountainous station (CBLG), the latter being influenced by orographic effects. The sharp post-peak decline in PWV suggests the massive conversion of water vapor into intense precipitation. Cross-correlation analysis demonstrates the reliability of PWV as an extreme weather precursor; 56.4% of the stations showed PWV changes preceding rainfall events, with coastal regions exhibiting the highest consistency in lead-time directionality.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ERA5, GNSS Meteorologi, Metode RGB, PPP-AR, Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV), Precursor Cuaca Ekstrem, Satelit Himawari-9, Siklon Tropis Senyar (04B), ERA5, GNSS Meteorology, RGB Method, PPP-AR, Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV), Extreme Weather Precursor, Himawari-9 Satellite, Tropical Cyclone Senyar (04B).
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G109.5 Global Positioning System G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.212 ArcGIS. Geographic information systems. G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.217 Geospatial data G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.5.I4 Remote sensing G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences > GE300 Environmental management Q Science > QE Geology > QE601 Geology, Structural T Technology > T Technology (General) > T174.5 Technology--Risk assessment. T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.5 Data Processing T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.83 Dynamic programming
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Environmental, and Geo Engineering > Geomatics Engineering > 29101-(S2) Master Theses
Depositing User:	Fira Anggielia Purwanto
Date Deposited:	27 Jul 2026 07:57
Last Modified:	27 Jul 2026 07:57
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/138121

Actions (login required)

View Item