Analisis Strategi Peningkatan Kelayakan Finansial Ruas Jalan Tol Rantauprapat-Kisaran

Pradipto, Nindyonawi (2026) Analisis Strategi Peningkatan Kelayakan Finansial Ruas Jalan Tol Rantauprapat-Kisaran. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Ruas Jalan Tol Rantauprapat–Kisaran merupakan bagian dari koridor Jalan Tol Trans Sumatera yang berperan strategis dalam meningkatkan konektivitas dan mendukung pengembangan ekonomi wilayah Sumatera Utara. Namun, hasil analisis kelayakan finansial menunjukkan bahwa proyek ini masih belum memenuhi kriteria investasi, dengan FIRR sebesar 8,351%, NPV sebesar Rp(3.971,00) miliar, dan Payback Period selama 15,95 tahun. Nilai tersebut belum memenuhi kriteria berupa NPV positif, FIRR yang lebih tinggi daripada WACC ditambah 4%, serta Payback Period maksimum sebesar 30% dari masa konsesi.
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan skenario peningkatan kelayakan finansial Ruas Jalan Tol Rantauprapat–Kisaran serta mengukur sensitivitas indikator kelayakan terhadap perubahan parameter utama. Metode yang digunakan adalah pendekatan kuantitatif-deskriptif berbasis studi kasus melalui pemodelan arus kas proyek menggunakan metode Discounted Cash Flow. Pengujian strategi dilakukan melalui single scenario dan combination scenario dengan variabel berupa penyesuaian tarif, efisiensi CAPEX dan OPEX, penataan struktur pendanaan, serta dukungan pemerintah melalui Viability Gap Funding. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa strategi tunggal belum cukup realistis untuk memenuhi seluruh kriteria kelayakan. Penyesuaian tarif membutuhkan kenaikan sebesar 123,45%, VGF membutuhkan porsi 62,84%, sedangkan efisiensi CAPEX dan OPEX membutuhkan penurunan biaya secara bersamaan sebesar 56,91% untuk memenuhi batas minimum FIRR. Hasil pengujian kombinasi menunjukkan bahwa skema VGF sebesar 10%, penyesuaian tarif sebesar 30%, efisiensi CAPEX sebesar 15%, efisiensi OPEX sebesar 20%, serta struktur pendanaan utang–ekuitas 70:30 merupakan skema terbaik karena menghasilkan FIRR sebesar 11,72%, WACC sebesar 7,56%, NPV sebesar Rp12.658 miliar, dan Payback Period selama 11,84 tahun. Hasil sensitivitas menunjukkan bahwa pendapatan dan CAPEX merupakan parameter paling kritis, sehingga implementasi strategi perlu difokuskan pada pengamanan pendapatan, pengendalian CAPEX, efisiensi OPEX, dan pengelolaan struktur pendanaan secara prudent. Kontribusi penelitian ini adalah memperoleh strategi peningkatan kelayakan finansial jalan tol melalui pengujian strategi tunggal, skenario kombinasi, dan analisis sensitivitas terhadap parameter utama.
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The Rantauprapat–Kisaran Toll Road is part of the Trans-Sumatra Toll Road corridor and plays a strategic role in improving connectivity and supporting regional economic development in North Sumatra. However, the financial feasibility analysis indicates that the project has not yet met the investment criteria, with a FIRR of 8.351%, an NPV of IDR (3,971.00) billion, and a Payback Period of 15.95 years. These results do not satisfy the required criteria of a positive NPV, a FIRR exceeding WACC plus 4%, and a Payback Period of no more than 30% of the concession period.
This study aims to determine scenarios for improving the financial feasibility of the Rantauprapat–Kisaran Toll Road and to measure the sensitivity of the feasibility indicators to changes in key parameters. The study adopts a quantitative descriptive case-study approach through project cash flow modelling using the Discounted Cash Flow method. The strategy testing consists of single scenarios and combination scenarios involving tariff adjustments, CAPEX and OPEX efficiency, financing structure optimisation, and government support through Viability Gap Funding.
The results show that single strategies are not sufficiently realistic to satisfy all feasibility criteria. A tariff adjustment would require an increase of 123.45%, VGF would require a contribution of 62.84%, while CAPEX and OPEX efficiency would require a cost reduction of 56.91% to meet the minimum FIRR threshold. The combination analysis shows that the best scheme consists of 10% VGF, a 30% tariff adjustment, 15% CAPEX efficiency, 20% OPEX efficiency, and a 70:30 debt-to-equity financing structure. This scheme generates a FIRR of 11.72%, a WACC of 7.56%, an NPV of IDR 12,658 billion, and a Payback Period of 11.84 years. The sensitivity analysis identifies revenue and CAPEX as the most critical parameters. Therefore, implementation should focus on securing project revenue, controlling CAPEX, improving OPEX efficiency, and managing the financing structure prudently. This study contributes by identifying a strategy for improving toll-road financial feasibility through single-scenario testing, combination scenarios, and sensitivity analysis of key parameters.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	analisis sensitivitas, Discounted Cash Flow, jalan tol, kelayakan finansial, Viability Gap Funding, Discounted Cash Flow, financial feasibility, sensitivity analysis, toll road, Viability Gap Funding.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications > HE355.4 Toll roads H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4529 Investment analysis T Technology > T Technology (General) > T56.8 Project Management
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Civil Engineering > 22101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Nindyonawi Pradipto
Date Deposited:	28 Jul 2026 01:47
Last Modified:	28 Jul 2026 01:47
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/138169

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