Analisis Dampak Perubahan Struktur Energi Dan Kebijakan Transisi Energi Tiongkok Terhadap Ekspor Batu Bara Indonesia Melalui Pendekatan Mixed-Method

Herdianto, Agus (2026) Analisis Dampak Perubahan Struktur Energi Dan Kebijakan Transisi Energi Tiongkok Terhadap Ekspor Batu Bara Indonesia Melalui Pendekatan Mixed-Method. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh November.

Text 6047241026-Master_Thesis.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only Download (9MB) | Request a copy

Abstract

Transisi energi Tiongkok menunjukkan percepatan signifikan dengan kapasitas energi terbarukan melampaui 1.450 GW pada 2024. Penelitian ini menganalisis dampak perubahan struktur energi dan kebijakan transisi Tiongkok terhadap ekspor batu bara Indonesia serta implikasi ekonomi, fiskal, dan ketahanan energi nasional dalam kerangka studi ketergantungan dan interdependensi. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif yang diperkuat dengan analisis dokumen kualitatif dengan data deret waktu 2012-2024 (ekspor) dan 2014-2024 (PDB dan PNBP). Analisis kuantitatif meliputi uji beda rata-rata, regresi log-linier, regresi variabel dummy, analisis skenario, dan proyeksi hingga 2035. Analisis kualitatif mencakup telaah dokumen kebijakan, analisis struktur impor Tiongkok (HS 2701 dan HS 2702), serta policy gap analysis. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan tiga temuan utama. Pertama, terjadi structural break pada 2021 (p-value = 0,000022) dengan peningkatan konsentrasi ekspor ke Tiongkok menjadi >40%. Analisis struktur impor mengungkap kerentanan ekspor Indonesia bersifat spesifik komoditas yakni Indonesia dominan pada lignite (HS 2702), sementara hard coal (HS 2701) lebih terdiversifikasi. Kedua, estimasi regresi menunjukkan elastisitas PDB sektor batu bara sebesar 1,05 dan PNBP sebesar 1,04 (R² = 0,81 dan 0,73). Dalam skenario penurunan moderat (5%/tahun), PDB sektor batu bara diperkirakan turun Rp524 triliun dan PNBP turun Rp69 triliun pada 2035. Ketiga, policy gap analysis mengungkap fragmentasi kelembagaan, asumsi perencanaan yang belum diperbarui, dan insentif status quo sebagai penghambat respons kebijakan. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa hubungan energi Indonesia-Tiongkok mencerminkan ketergantungan struktural Indonesia yang terbungkus dalam interdependensi asimetris. Indonesia menunjukkan ketergantungan tinggi melalui konsentrasi ekspor (>40%), spesialisasi pada komoditas bernilai tambah rendah, serta elastisitas ekonomi mendekati satu. Tiongkok juga bergantung pada impor lignite dari Indonesia, namun tingkat ketergantungannya lebih rendah. Strategi mitigasi jangka pendek, reduksi ketergantungan jangka menengah, transformasi struktural jangka panjang, serta penguatan kelembagaan diperlukan untuk mengurangi kerentanan struktural dan memperkuat ketahanan energi nasional.
=================================================================================================================================
China’s energy transition has accelerated significantly, with its installed renewable energy capacity surpassing 1,450 GW in 2024. This study examines the impact of changes in China’s energy structure and energy transition policies on Indonesia’s coal exports, as well as their economic, fiscal, and national energy security implications within the framework of dependency and interdependence studies. This research employs a quantitative approach complemented by qualitative document analysis, using time-series data covering 2012–2024 for export performance and 2014–2024 for gross domestic product (GDP) and non-tax state revenue (PNBP). The quantitative analysis includes independent sample t-tests, log-linear regression, dummy variable regression, scenario analysis, and projections through 2035. The qualitative analysis consists of policy document reviews, an examination of China’s coal import structure based on HS 2701 and HS 2702 classifications, and a policy gap analysis. The findings reveal three major results. First, a structural break occurred in 2021 (p-value = 0.000022), marked by an increase in Indonesia’s coal export concentration to China to more than 40%. Analysis of China’s import structure indicates that Indonesia’s export vulnerability is commodity-specific: Indonesia predominantly supplies lignite (HS 2702), whereas the hard coal (HS 2701) market is considerably more diversified. Second, the regression estimates indicate GDP and non-tax state revenue elasticities of 1.05 and 1.04, respectively (R² = 0.81 and 0.73). Under a moderate decline scenario (5% annually), the coal sector’s GDP is projected to decrease by IDR 524 trillion, while non-tax state revenue is projected to decline by IDR 69 trillion by 2035. Third, the policy gap analysis identifies institutional fragmentation, outdated planning assumptions, and status quo incentives as key barriers to effective policy responses. This study concludes that the Indonesia–China energy relationship reflects Indonesia’s structural dependency embedded within an asymmetric interdependence framework. Indonesia exhibits a high level of dependency through export concentration exceeding 40%, specialization in low value-added commodities, and economic elasticities approaching unity. Although China also depends on lignite imports from Indonesia, its level of dependency is substantially lower. Therefore, short-term mitigation strategies, medium-term dependency reduction, long-term structural transformation, and institutional strengthening are required to reduce structural vulnerabilities and enhance Indonesia’s national energy security.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Transisi energi Tiongkok, perubahan struktur energi, ekspor batu bara Indonesia, ketergantungan energi, interdependensi asimetris, mixed-method
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions > HC79.E5 Sustainable development. (circular economy)
Divisions:	Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 78201-System And Technology Innovation
Depositing User:	Agus Herdianto
Date Deposited:	28 Jul 2026 02:54
Last Modified:	28 Jul 2026 02:54
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/138460

Actions (login required)

View Item