Dinamika Kualitas Udara Dan Prevalensi Penyakit ISPA Pada Masyarakat Di Sekitar Pembangkit Listrik Berbasis Bahan Bakar Fosil Di Paiton

Yulmida, Damarta Anugrah (2026) Dinamika Kualitas Udara Dan Prevalensi Penyakit ISPA Pada Masyarakat Di Sekitar Pembangkit Listrik Berbasis Bahan Bakar Fosil Di Paiton. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Uap (PLTU) berbahan bakar batu bara masih berperan penting dalam penyediaan listrik nasional, namun operasionalnya berpotensi menimbulkan dampak lingkungan, kesehatan, dan sosial ekonomi akibat emisi udara. PLTU Paiton Unit 1–2 berkapasitas 2×400 MW menyuplai sekitar 3,3% kebutuhan listrik Sistem Jawa–Bali, dengan konsumsi batu bara rata-rata 2,86–3,25 juta ton per tahun selama 2021–2024. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan dinamika sistem untuk menganalisis hubungan antara konsumsi batu bara, emisi karbon, emisi sulfur dioksida (SO2), kualitas udara ambien, kasus infeksi saluran pernapasan akut (ISPA), dan biaya sosial. Model dikembangkan melalui lima sub-struktur, yaitu konsumsi batu bara dan emisi karbon, reforestasi dan kapasitas serapan karbon, emisi SO2 dan Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD), dampak kesehatan dan biaya sosial, serta dinamika demografi masyarakat sekitar PLTU. Simulasi dilakukan selama 10 tahun dengan membandingkan kondisi eksisting dan tiga skenario alternatif, yaitu optimasi Net Plant Heat Rate (NPHR) dan reforestasi, efisiensi FGD dan reforestasi, serta kebijakan terintegrasi. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa optimasi NPHR dan reforestasi menurunkan konsumsi batu bara sebesar 11,65% dan stok emisi karbon 11,38%, tetapi dampaknya terhadap kasus ISPA dan biaya sosial relatif kecil. Sebaliknya, efisiensi FGD dan reforestasi lebih efektif menurunkan kasus ISPA sebesar 12,41% dan akumulasi biaya sosial 10,61%. Skenario kebijakan terintegrasi memberikan perbaikan paling menyeluruh, dengan penurunan konsumsi batu bara 11,65%, stok emisi karbon 11,38%, kasus ISPA 12,57%, dan akumulasi biaya sosial 10,75%. Hasil what-if analysis menunjukkan bahwa pemilihan skenario perlu mempertimbangkan kesiapan finansial dan anggaran investasi PLTU. Dengan mempertimbangkan kebutuhan investasi FGD sebesar sekitar Rp416 miliar, apabila alokasi anggaran belum tersedia, optimasi NPHR dapat dipertimbangkan sebagai opsi awal yang lebih realistis untuk diterapkan. Sementara itu, FGD dan kebijakan terintegrasi dapat diposisikan sebagai strategi jangka panjang untuk pengendalian emisi SO2 dan penurunan risiko kesehatan masyarakat.
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Coal-fired steam power plants (CFPPs) remain important in Indonesia’s electricity supply; however, their operation may cause environmental, health, and socioeconomic impacts. Paiton Steam Power Plant Units 1–2, with a capacity of 2×400 MW, supply 3.3% of the Java–Bali power system demand and consumed 2.86–3.25 million tons of coal per year during 2021–2024. This study applies a system dynamics approach to analyze the relationships among coal consumption, carbon emissions, sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, ambient air quality, acute respiratory infection (ARI) cases, and social costs. The model consists of five substructures: coal consumption and carbon emissions, reforestation and carbon sink capacity, SO2 emissions and Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD), health impacts and social costs, and demographic dynamics. A 10-year simulation compared the existing condition with three scenarios: Net Plant Heat Rate (NPHR) optimization and reforestation, FGD efficiency improvement and reforestation, and integrated policy. The results show that NPHR optimization and reforestation reduce coal consumption by 11.65% and carbon emission stock by 11.38%, although their effects on ARI cases and social costs are limited. Conversely, FGD efficiency improvement and reforestation reduce ARI cases by 12.41% and accumulated social costs by 10.61%. The integrated policy scenario provides the most comprehensive improvement, reducing coal consumption by 11.65%, carbon emission stock by 11.38%, ARI cases by 12.57%, and accumulated social costs by 10.75%. The what-if analysis indicates that scenario selection should consider financial readiness and investment availability. If the required FGD investment of IDR 416 billion is not yet available, NPHR optimization can be considered a more realistic initial option, while FGD implementation and integrated policy may serve as long-term strategies for SO2 emission control and public health risk reduction.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Kualitas Udara, PLTU, Sistem Dinamik, Emisi SO2, Biaya Sosial, Kebijakan Lingkungan, Air Quality, Steam Power Plant, System Dynamics, SO2 Emissions, Social Cost, Environmental Policy.
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.83 Dynamic programming T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.62 Decision support systems
Divisions:	Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Industrial Engineering > 26101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Damarta Anugrah Yulmida
Date Deposited:	28 Jul 2026 06:39
Last Modified:	28 Jul 2026 06:39
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/138612

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