Analisis Penjadwalan Probabilistik Berbasis Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT), Untuk Proyek Konstruksi Gedung Studi Kasus: Embassy Of India

Maharani, Adinda Intan (2026) Analisis Penjadwalan Probabilistik Berbasis Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT), Untuk Proyek Konstruksi Gedung Studi Kasus: Embassy Of India. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

Text 5012221121-Undergraduate_Thesis.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (4MB) | Request a copy

Abstract

Penjadwalan merupakan salah satu aspek penting dalam manajemen proyek konstruksi karena berperan langsung dalam pengendalian waktu pelaksanaan. Pada praktiknya, penyusunan jadwal proyek sering menggunakan pendekatan deterministik, yaitu menetapkan satu nilai durasi tetap pada setiap aktivitas. Pendekatan ini relatif mudah diterapkan, tetapi belum sepenuhnya mampu menggambarkan ketidakpastian yang terjadi di lapangan, seperti perubahan kondisi cuaca, keterlambatan material, keterbatasan tenaga kerja, kerusakan alat, maupun hambatan operasional proyek. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi faktor ketidakpastian yang memengaruhi durasi aktivitas, menerapkan metode Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) dalam penjadwalan probabilistik, serta membandingkan hasilnya dengan jadwal deterministik pada Proyek Pembangunan Gedung Main Chancery Embassy of India. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan studi kasus pada satu bangunan, yaitu Gedung Main Chancery. Data yang digunakan meliputi jadwal rencana proyek, hubungan ketergantungan antaraktivitas, serta estimasi durasi optimis dan pesimis yang diperoleh melalui wawancara dengan Project Manager, Site Operational Manager, dan Site Engineer. Estimasi dari ketiga responden diberi bobot yang sama dan diagregasikan menggunakan geometric mean, sedangkan durasi most likely didekati menggunakan durasi jadwal eksisting yang telah dikonfirmasi sebagai kondisi paling mungkin. Hasil wawancara diagregasikan menggunakan rata-rata geometrik, kemudian dianalisis dengan metode PERT untuk memperoleh durasi harapan, varians, standar deviasi, dan probabilitas penyelesaian proyek. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa faktor ketidakpastian yang memengaruhi durasi proyek meliputi risiko lingkungan dan sosial, teknis operasional, sumber daya manusia, serta logistik. Jadwal deterministik menghasilkan durasi proyek sebesar 562 hari dengan probabilitas penyelesaian 21,19%. Sementara itu, metode PERT menghasilkan durasi harapan sebesar 567,46 hari dengan probabilitas sekitar 50%, total varians 46,61, dan standar deviasi 6,83 hari. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa penjadwalan probabilistik memberikan gambaran durasi yang lebih realistis karena mempertimbangkan variasi durasi dan risiko pada aktivitas proyek. Selain itu, durasi P80 sebesar 573,22 hari dapat digunakan sebagai acuan waktu kontingensi untuk meningkatkan keyakinan penyelesaian proyek.
====================================================================================================================================
Scheduling is one of the important aspects of construction project management because it directly supports the control of project implementation time. In practice, project scheduling often uses a deterministic approach, in which each activity is assigned a single fixed duration. This approach is relatively easy to apply, but it does not fully represent uncertainties that may occur in the field, such as changes in weather conditions, material delivery delays, labor shortages, equipment breakdowns, and project operational constraints. This study aims to identify uncertainty factors that affect activity duration, apply the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) method in probabilistic scheduling, and compare the results with the deterministic schedule in the Main Chancery Embassy of India Building Construction Project. This research uses a quantitative approach with a case study focused on one building, namely the Main Chancery Building. The data used include the project baseline schedule, activity dependency relationships, and Optimistic and pessimistic duration estimates were obtained through interviews with the Project Manager, Site Operational Manager, and Site Engineer. The estimates from the three equally weighted respondents were aggregated using the geometric mean, whereas the most likely durations were approximated using the existing schedule and confirmed as the most probable durations under normal project conditions, and then analyzed using the PERT method to obtain the expected duration, variance, standard deviation, and probability of project completion. The results show that the uncertainty factors affecting project duration include environmental and social risks, technical-operational risks, human resource risks, and logistical risks. The deterministic schedule produced a project duration of 562 days with a completion probability of 21.19%. Meanwhile, the PERT method resulted in an expected duration of 567.46 days with a probability of approximately 50%, a total variance of 46.61, and a standard deviation of 6.83 days. These findings indicate that probabilistic scheduling provides a more realistic representation of project duration because it considers duration variability and risks in project activities. In addition, the P80 duration of 573.22 days can be used as a reference for contingency time to increase the confidence level of project completion.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Penjadwalan Probabilistik, PERT, Ketidakpastian Durasi, Waktu Kontingensi, Proyek Konstruksi Gedung, Probabilistic Scheduling, PERT, Duration Uncertainty, Contingency Time, Building Construction Project.
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning > Civil Engineering > 22201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Adinda Intan Maharani
Date Deposited:	28 Jul 2026 08:17
Last Modified:	28 Jul 2026 08:17
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/138832

Actions (login required)

View Item