Analisis Penjadwalan Probabilistik Berbasis Simulasi Monte Carlo Pada Gedung Main Chancery Proyek Embassy Of India

Tjahjana, Andhira Febryana Putri (2026) Analisis Penjadwalan Probabilistik Berbasis Simulasi Monte Carlo Pada Gedung Main Chancery Proyek Embassy Of India. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Penjadwalan merupakan bagian penting dalam pelaksanaan proyek konstruksi karena menjadi dasar dalam pengendalian waktu proyek. Pada umumnya, penyusunan jadwal masih menggunakan pendekatan deterministik, yaitu durasi setiap pekerjaan ditetapkan sebagai satu nilai tertentu. Padahal, pelaksanaan proyek di lapangan sering dipengaruhi oleh berbagai ketidakpastian, seperti keterlambatan material, perubahan cuaca, keterbatasan akses kendaraan proyek, perubahan kondisi lapangan, serta gangguan eksternal di sekitar lokasi proyek. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis penerapan penjadwalan probabilistik berbasis Simulasi Monte Carlo pada proyek pembangunan Embassy of India, dengan fokus pada Gedung Main Chancery. Gedung ini dianalisis sebagai objek yang berdiri sendiri agar kajian durasi proyek dapat dilakukan secara lebih spesifik sesuai lingkup pekerjaan yang ditinjau. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode studi kasus. Data yang digunakan meliputi jadwal rencana proyek, data realisasi pelaksanaan, estimasi durasi pekerjaan, serta informasi risiko yang diperoleh melalui identifikasi risiko dan wawancara dengan pihak proyek. Durasi pekerjaan dimodelkan ke dalam tiga estimasi, yaitu optimistic, most likely, dan pessimistic. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan Barbecana Full Monte Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA™). Hasil analisis Critical Path Method (CPM) menunjukkan bahwa durasi deterministik Gedung Main Chancery adalah 562 hari. Namun, hasil Simulasi Monte Carlo menunjukkan bahwa durasi tersebut hanya memiliki probabilitas penyelesaian sebesar 9%, sehingga jadwal deterministik cenderung terlalu optimistis. Hasil simulasi menghasilkan durasi 574 hari pada P50, 581 hari pada P80, dan 605 hari sebagai durasi maksimum simulasi. Nilai P80 dapat digunakan sebagai acuan jadwal yang lebih aman dan realistis secara analitis. Hasil ini tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjelaskan seluruh keterlambatan aktual proyek Embassy of India, karena keterlambatan proyek secara keseluruhan juga dipengaruhi oleh dispute, keterlambatan gedung lain, dan keterkaitan jadwal antarbangunan. Simulasi Monte Carlo dapat membantu menghasilkan estimasi durasi yang lebih rasional, memperkirakan kebutuhan contingency time, dan mendukung pengambilan keputusan penjadwalan pada lingkup proyek yang ditinjau.
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Scheduling is an important part of construction project implementation because it serves as the basis for controlling project time. In general, project schedules are still commonly prepared using a deterministic approach, in which the duration of each activity is assigned as a single fixed value. However, project implementation in the field is often affected by various uncertainties, such as material delays, weather changes, limited access for project vehicles, labor turnover, coordination problems, changes in site conditions, and external disturbances around the project location. This study aims to analyze the application of probabilistic scheduling based on Monte Carlo Simulation in the Embassy of India construction project, with a focus on the Main Chancery Building. This building was analyzed as a stand-alone object so that the project duration could be examined more specifically according to the scope of work being studied. This research used a quantitative approach with a case study method. The data used include the project baseline schedule, actual implementation data, activity duration estimates, and risk information obtained through risk identification and interviews with project stakeholders. Activity durations were modeled using three estimates: optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic. The analysis was conducted using Barbecana Full Monte Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA™). The results of the Critical Path Method (CPM) analysis show that the deterministic duration of the Main Chancery Building is 562 days. However, the Monte Carlo Simulation results indicate that this duration has only a 9% probability of completion, meaning that the deterministic schedule tends to be too optimistic. The simulation produced project durations of 574 days at P50, 581 days at P80, and 605 days as the maximum simulated duration. The P80 value can be used as a safer and more analytically realistic schedule reference. These results are not intended to explain the entire actual delay of the Embassy of India project, since the overall project delay was also influenced by disputes, delays in other buildings, and interdependencies among building schedules. Monte Carlo Simulation can help produce a more rational duration estimate, determine the required contingency time, and support scheduling decision-making within the scope of the project being studied.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	penjadwalan probabilistik, Simulasi Monte Carlo, proyek konstruksi gedung, ketidakpastian durasi, contingency time, probabilistic scheduling, Monte Carlo Simulation, building construction project, duration uncertainty, contingency time.
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning > Civil Engineering > 22201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Andhira Febryana Tjahjana Putri
Date Deposited:	28 Jul 2026 08:23
Last Modified:	28 Jul 2026 08:23
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/138877

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