Studi Faktor Non-Astronomis Pada Pasang Surut Air Laut Akibat Siklon Tropis

Taftiyan, Achmad Aunilla (2026) Studi Faktor Non-Astronomis Pada Pasang Surut Air Laut Akibat Siklon Tropis. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Variasi tinggi muka air laut pesisir tidak hanya digerakkan oleh gaya gravitasi astronomis, tetapi juga oleh residu non-astronomis yang bersumber dari gangguan meteorologis ekstrem. Penelitian ini mengkaji dampak lima kejadian siklon tropis di kawasan Pasifik yakni Siklon Nanmadol (2022), Jasper (2023), Norma (2023), Shanshan (2024), dan Alfred (2025) terhadap karakteristik residu pasang surut, pengaruh meteorologis, dan stabilitas konstanta harmonik. Metode yang diterapkan mencakup analisis harmonik T_TIDE, Moving Harmonic Analysis (MHA), Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT), Multi-Resolution Analysis (MRA), pemodelan ARIMA, uji Spearman, dan regresi linear berganda berbasis data interval 1 menit dan reanalisis ERA5. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa seluruh distribusi residu selama periode siklon bersifat non-normal (K-S Test, Dn = 0,071–0,234; p = 0,00) dengan puncak storm surge berkisar 0,314–1,332 m. Pemodelan ARIMA mengidentifikasi durasi pemulihan muka air laut antara 12 jam 16 menit (Shanshan/Aburatsu) hingga 160 jam 10 menit (Alfred/Gold Coast). Tekanan atmosfer dan kecepatan angin menjelaskan variansi residu dengan R² Adjusted tertinggi 0,894 (Nanmadol), dengan sifat spesifik-lokasi. Evaluasi MHA mengkonfirmasi M₂ dan S₂ stabil (simpangan <12,5%), sementara konstituen diurnal K₁ dan O₁ mengalami gangguan (−29% hingga +34,7%) dan overtide M₄/MS₄ menunjukkan amplifikasi nonlinier ekstrem hingga +180,8%. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa periode siklon harus dieksklusi dari estimasi konstanta harmonik guna memastikan keandalan datum vertikal dalam survei hidrografi pascabencana. Penelitian ini berkontribusi pada pencapaian SDGs Poin 4 (Sub-indikator 4.7.1) sebagai bahan ajar edukasi kebencanaan, Poin 13 (Sub-indikator 13.1.1) dalam mendukung kapasitas adaptasi mitigasi pesisir, serta Poin 14 (Sub-indikator 14.a.1) melalui transfer teknologi kelautan, guna meningkatkan pemahaman terkait dampak fenomena meteorologis ekstrem terhadap dinamika muka air laut pesisir.
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Coastal sea-level variation is driven not only by astronomical gravitational forcing but also by non-astronomical residuals arising from extreme meteorological disturbances. This study investigates the impacts of five tropical cyclone events in the Pacific region Typhoon Nanmadol (2022), Tropical Cyclone Jasper (2023), Tropical Cyclone Norma (2023), Typhoon Shanshan (2024), and Tropical Cyclone Alfred (2025) on tidal residual characteristics, meteorological influences, and harmonic constant stability. Methods applied include T_TIDE harmonic analysis, Moving Harmonic Analysis (MHA), Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT), Multi-Resolution Analysis (MRA), ARIMA modelling, Spearman correlation, and multiple linear regression, based on one-minute resolution observation data and ERA5 reanalysis. Results show that all residual distributions during cyclone periods were non-normal (K-S Test, Dn = 0.071–0.234; p = 0.00) with peak storm surge ranging from 0.314 to 1.332 m. ARIMA modelling identified sea-level recovery durations ranging from 12 hours 16 minutes (Shanshan/Aburatsu) to 160 hours 10 minutes (Alfred/Gold Coast Sand Bypass). Atmospheric pressure and wind speed jointly explained residual variance with the highest adjusted R² of 0.894 (Nanmadol), with the relative dominance of each variable being site-specific. MHA evaluation confirmed that semidiurnal constituents M₂ and S₂ remained stable (deviation < 12.5%), while diurnal constituents K₁ and O₁ experienced significant contamination (−29% to +34.7%) and overtide components M₄/MS₄ exhibited extreme nonlinear amplification of up to +180.8%. This study concludes that cyclone periods must be excluded from harmonic constant estimation to ensure the reliability of vertical datum references in post-disaster hydrographic surveys. This research contributes to achieving SDGs Goal 4 (Sub-indicator 4.7.1) as disaster education material, Goal 13 (Sub-indicator 13.1.1) in supporting coastal mitigation adaptive capacity, and Goal 14 (Sub-indicator 14.a.1) through marine technology transfer, thereby advancing the understanding of extreme meteorological phenomena impacts on coastal sea-level dynamics.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Siklon Tropis, Pasang Surut, Meteorologis, Konstanta Harmonik, Hidrografi, SDGs
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.217 Geospatial data G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GC Oceanography > GC89 Sea Level T Technology > TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering > TC424 Water levels
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning > Geomatics Engineering > 29101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Achmad Aunilla Taftiyan
Date Deposited:	29 Jul 2026 04:10
Last Modified:	29 Jul 2026 04:10
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/139045

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