Cost Significant Model Berdasarkan Analisis Standar Biaya Untuk Bangunan Sederhana Pemerintah Kota Surabaya

Siringoringo, Margareth Caecilia (2026) Cost Significant Model Berdasarkan Analisis Standar Biaya Untuk Bangunan Sederhana Pemerintah Kota Surabaya. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pemerintah Kota Surabaya memerlukan metode estimasi biaya konseptual yang cepat,transparan, dan dapat ditelusuri untuk mendukung penyusunan anggaran awal bangunan gedung negara sederhana. Penelitian ini mengembangkan Cost Significant Model (CSM) menggunakan data Analisis Standar Biaya (ASB) Pemerintah Kota Surabaya tahun 2013–2026.Data dibagi menjadi data pembentukan model tahun 2013–2022 sebanyak 10 observasi dan data trial tahun 2023–2026 sebanyak 4 observasi. Setiap item ASB diekstraksi, dihitung berdasarkan koefisien dan harga satuan, serta diagregasikan ke sebelas kelompok Work
Breakdown Structure (WBS). Seluruh biaya kemudian disetarakan ke basis harga tahun 2026. Seleksi Pareto gabungan pada data pembentukan model menghasilkan empat cost significant items dengan kontribusi kumulatif 82,031%, yaitu pekerjaan dinding dan pengecatan (X₄) 31,222%, pekerjaan beton struktur (X₃) 21,457%, pekerjaan atap dan plafon (X₇) 15,892%, serta pekerjaan tanah dan pondasi (X₂) 13,460%. Model dibentuk secara murni menggunakan keempat variabel tersebut dan menghasilkan persamaan Ŷ = 354.178,273 + 0,738935X₂ + 0,883741X₃ + 1,481094X₄ + 1,227166X₇. Model signifikan secara simultan dengan F = 16,638596 dan p-value = 0,004292, memiliki R² = 0,930123 dan Adjusted R² = 0,874222, sedangkan seluruh variabel independen signifikan secara parsial pada taraf 5%. Residual memenuhi normalitas, tetapi ditemukan multikolinearitas tinggi pada X₂, X₃, dan X₄ serta indikasi heteroskedastisitas pada X₃. Validasi data trial menghasilkan rata-rata CMF 1,004957, MAPE 0,495719%, MAE Rp33.102,055/m², RMSE Rp34.194,987/m², dan deviasi absolut maksimum 0,697691%. Model dapat digunakan sebagai alat bantu estimasi konseptual berbasis standar biaya dengan batasan bahwa data bukan realisasi proyek.
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The Surabaya City Government requires a rapid, transparent, and traceable conceptual cost-estimation method to support preliminary budgeting for modest government buildings. This study develops a Cost Significant Model (CSM) using the Surabaya City Government Standard Cost Analysis (ASB) data for 2013–2026. The dataset was divided into ten model development observations for 2013–2022 and four trial observations for 2023–2026. Each ASB item was extracted, calculated from its coefficient and unit price, and aggregated into eleven Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) groups. All costs were then adjusted to the 2026 price basis. The combined Pareto analysis identified four cost-significant items with a cumulative contribution of 82.031%: wall and painting works (X₄) 31.222%, concrete structural works (X₃) 21.457%, roof and ceiling works (X₇) 15.892%, and earthwork and foundation works (X₂) 13.460%. The model was developed solely from these four variables and produced Ŷ = 354,178.273 + 0.738935X₂ + 0.883741X₃ + 1.481094X₄ + 1.227166X₇. The model was simultaneously significant with F = 16.638596 and p-value = 0.004292, with R² = 0.930123 and adjusted R² = 0.874222; all independent variables were partially significant at the 5% level. Residuals satisfied normality, although high multicollinearity was found for X₂, X₃, and X₄ and heteroscedasticity was indicated for X₃. Trial validation yielded a mean CMF of 1.004957, MAPE of 0.495719%, MAE of IDR 33,102.055/m², RMSE of IDR 34,194.987/m², and maximum absolute deviation of 0.697691%. The model is suitable as a conceptual estimation aid based on standard-cost data, subject to the limitations that the data are not project-realization costs and that several years were normalized using an ASB proxy index.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Estimasi biaya, cost significant model, perencanaan infrastruktur, data konstruksi standar, model regresi. ============================================================================================================================ Cost estimation, cost significant model, infrastructure planning, standard construction data, regression model.
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) > TA660.P55 Underground pipeline design, construction and management
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Environmental, and Geo Engineering > Civil Engineering > 22201-(S1) Undergraduate Theses
Depositing User:	Margareth Caecilia Siringoringo
Date Deposited:	29 Jul 2026 01:22
Last Modified:	29 Jul 2026 01:22
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/139188

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