Pemodelan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Berdasarkan Indikator Sosial Dan Ekonomi Di Nusa Tenggara Timur Menggunakan Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated

Wijawati, Safira (2026) Pemodelan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Berdasarkan Indikator Sosial Dan Ekonomi Di Nusa Tenggara Timur Menggunakan Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Indonesia merupakan negara dengan jumlah penduduk yang besar sehingga pembangunan sumber daya manusia menjadi aspek penting dalam mendukung pembangunan nasional. Keberhasilan pembangunan sumber daya manusia dapat diukur melalui Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) yang mencakup tiga dimensi, yaitu kesehatan, pendidikan, dan standar hidup layak. Berdasarkan data Badan Pusat Statistik tahun 2024, IPM Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur (NTT) sebesar 69,14 dan termasuk dalam kategori sedang, namun masih menempati peringkat ke-34 dari 38 provinsi di Indonesia. Selain itu, Provinsi NTT merupakan wilayah dengan karakteristik daerah tertinggal, terdepan, dan terluar yang menghadapi berbagai keterbatasan dalam pelaksanaan pembangunan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memodelkan IPM berdasarkan indikator sosial dan ekonomi wilayah di Provinsi NTT menggunakan variabel angka kesakitan, rasio guru-siswa, persentase penduduk miskin, dan PDRB per kapita. Pemodelan dilakukan menggunakan regresi nonparametrik spline truncated karena bentuk hubungan antara IPM dan variabel-variabel prediktor tidak diketahui secara pasti sehingga diperlukan pendekatan yang fleksibel dalam memodelkan hubungan tersebut. Hasil pemodelan dengan seluruh variabel prediktor menghasilkan model terbaik dengan kombinasi titik knot (2,3,3,3), namun variabel rasio guru-siswa tidak signifikan dalam model sehingga dilakukan pemodelan kembali menggunakan tiga variabel yang signifikan, yaitu angka kesakitan, persentase penduduk miskin, dan PDRB per kapita. Pemodelan kembali menghasilkan model terbaik dengan kombinasi titik knot (2,3,1) dengan seluruh variabel prediktor signifikan dalam model. Model terbaik dipilih berdasarkan nilai Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) terkecil dan memiliki koefisien determinasi sebesar 96,89%.
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Indonesia is a country with a large population, making human resource development an essential aspect of supporting national development. The success of human development can be measured using the Human Development Index (HDI), which encompasses three dimensions: health, education, and a decent standard of living. According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS) data for 2024, the Human Development Index of East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) Province was 69.14, which falls into the medium category. However, the province ranked 34th out of 38 provinces in Indonesia. In addition, East Nusa Tenggara is characterized as a disadvantaged, frontier, and outermost region, facing various challenges in implementing development programs. This study aims to model the Human Development Index based on regional social and economic indicators in East Nusa Tenggara Province using the sickness rate, teacher–student ratio, percentage of poor population, and gross regional domestic product (GRDP) per capita as predictor variables. The modeling was conducted using truncated spline nonparametric regression because the functional relationship between the Human Development Index and the predictor variables is not known with certainty, requiring a flexible approach to capture the relationship. The initial model, which included all predictor variables, produced the best model with a knot combination of (2,3,3,3). However, the teacher–student ratio was not statistically significant; therefore, the model was re-estimated using the three significant variables: sickness rate, percentage of poor population, and GRDP per capita. The re-estimated model produced the best model with a knot combination of (2,3,1), in which all predictor variables were statistically significant. The best model was selected based on the smallest Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) value and achieved a coefficient of determination of 96.89%.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Generalized Cross Validation, Indeks Pembangunan Manusia, Nusa Tenggara Timur, Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated, Titik Knot, East Nusa Tenggara, Generalized Cross Validation, Human Development Index, Knot Point, Truncated Spline Nonparametric Regression
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation. Logistic regression analysis.
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Safira Wijawati
Date Deposited:	29 Jul 2026 01:33
Last Modified:	29 Jul 2026 01:33
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/139255

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