Pemodelan Status Ketahanan Pangan Rumah Tangga Di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan Menggunakan Zero-Inflated Ordered Logit (ZIOL)

Prawiryadirja, Felita Surya Krisna (2026) Pemodelan Status Ketahanan Pangan Rumah Tangga Di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan Menggunakan Zero-Inflated Ordered Logit (ZIOL). Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Ketahanan pangan merupakan isu strategis dalam tujuan pembangunan berkelanjutan (Sustainable Development Goals), namun disparitas akses pangan masih terjadi di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan meskipun wilayah ini merupakan lumbung pangan nasional. Data status ketahanan pangan memiliki proporsi kategori tahan pangan yang dominan sehingga diperlukan pendekatan yang mampu mengakomodasi fenomena excess zeros. Penelitian ini bertujuan memodelkan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi status ketahanan pangan rumah tangga menggunakan metode Zero-Inflated Ordered Logit (ZIOL). Data yang digunakan berasal dari SUSENAS 2025 dengan 15.832 rumah tangga. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa 34,2% rumah tangga tergolong tahan pangan, 18,5% rentan pangan, 29,0% kurang pangan, dan 18,2% rawan pangan. Pada komponen ordinal, faktor signifikan meliputi jumlah anggota rumah tangga, jumlah balita, pengeluaran per kapita, bahan bakar memasak, dan status kepemilikan bangunan. Pada komponen inflated, faktor signifikan meliputi wilayah tempat tinggal, lapangan usaha, pendidikan kepala rumah tangga, bantuan pangan pemerintah, jumlah anggota rumah tangga, dan jumlah balita. Nilai uji Vuong sebesar 5,180 menunjukkan bahwa model ZIOL lebih baik dibandingkan model logit ordinal. Selain itu, rumah tangga di atas garis kemiskinan memiliki kecenderungan sekitar 7 kali lebih besar untuk berada pada kondisi tahan pangan dibandingkan rumah tangga di bawah garis kemiskinan.
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Food security is a strategic issue within the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, disparities in food access still exist in South Sulawesi Province despite its role as one of Indonesia’s national food-producing regions. Household food security data exhibit a dominant proportion of food-secure households, resulting in an excess zeros phenomenon that requires a specialized modeling approach. This study aims to identify factors affecting household food security status using the Zero-Inflated Ordered Logit (ZIOL) model. The data were obtained from the 2025 National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS), consisting of 15,832 households. The results show that 34.2% of households were classified as food secure, 18.5% as vulnerable to food insecurity, 29.0% as food deficient, and 18.2% as food insecure. In the ordinal component, significant factors included household size, number of children under five years old, per capita expenditure, cooking fuel type, and housing ownership status. In the inflated component, significant factors included area of residence, employment sector, household head’s education level, government food assistance, household size, and number of children under five years old. The Vuong test statistic of 5.180 indicated that the ZIOL model performed better than the ordinal logit model. Furthermore, households whose per capita expenditure was above the poverty line had approximately seven times higher odds of being food secure compared to households whose per capita expenditure was below the poverty line.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Ketahanan Pangan, Sulawesi Selatan, SUSENAS, Zero-Inflated Ordered Logit,Food Security, South Sulawesi, SUSENAS, Zero-Inflated Ordered Logit
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation. Logistic regression analysis. H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.7 Estimation
Divisions:	Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Felita Surya Krisna Prawiryadirja
Date Deposited:	29 Jul 2026 02:56
Last Modified:	29 Jul 2026 02:56
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/139403

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