S., Nicole Anacia Dinar (2026) Modifikasi Model Difusi Adopsi Kendaraan Listrik Roda Empat di Indonesia Berbasis Bass, Gompertz, dan Logistik dengan Shocked Variable Incremental Net Present Value dan Segmentasi Kendaraan. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Adopsi kendaraan listrik roda empat di Indonesia pada 2025 baru mencapai 12,93% pangsa pasar dan masih jauh di bawah target peta jalan Kementerian Perindustrian sebesar 20%. Penelitian terdahulu umumnya membandingkan biaya kepemilikan kendaraan listrik dan konvensional tanpa menghubungkannya dengan proyeksi adopsi berbasis model difusi. Penelitian ini mengembangkan model adopsi kendaraan listrik roda empat Indonesia dengan memasukkan selisih net present value (NPV) sebagai faktor keekonomian x(t) ke dalam model difusi, pada tiga segmen pasar yaitu low, medium, dan premium. Enam kombinasi model (Bass, Logistik, dan Gompertz, versi standar dan dengan injeksi NPV) dibandingkan terhadap data historis adopsi 2021-2025. Gompertz+NPV memberikan hasil terbaik dengan sum squared error (SSE) sebesar 55.698.325, root mean squared error (RMSE) 3.338, dan mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) 47,2%, lebih baik dari Bass+NPV dan Logistik+NPV. Model terpilih dipakai memproyeksikan adopsi 2026-2035 pada tiga belas skenario kebijakan. Tanpa kebijakan tambahan, adopsi kumulatif hanya mencapai 1.567.894 unit atau 78,4% dari target dua juta unit pada 2030, dan baru tercapai pada 2031. Hanya tiga skenario, yaitu kombinasi pajak kendaraan bermotor (PKB) 0% dengan insentif 10%, 15%, dan insentif tertarget per segmen yang mampu mencapai target pada 2030. Insentif persentase seragam antarsegmen terbukti regresif, dengan manfaat NPV segmen premium mencapai 4,29 kali segmen low, sedangkan insentif tertarget membalik pola tersebut. Temuan ini menunjukkan desain insentif yang tepat sasaran lebih berpengaruh terhadap manfaat kebijakan dibandingkan besarannya.
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Four wheeled electric vehicle (EV) adoption in Indonesia reached only 12.93% in 2025, well below the Ministry of Industry's 20% roadmap target. Previous studies have generally compared EV and conventional vehicle ownership costs without linking them to adoption projections using diffusion models. This study develops a four wheeled EV adoption model for Indonesia by incorporating the net present value (NPV) difference as an economic factor into a diffusion model across three market segments consisting of low, medium, and premium. Six model combinations including Bass, Logistic, and Gompertz in standard and NPV augmented versions are compared using historical adoption data from 2021 to 2025. Gompertz+NPV delivers the best performance, with a sum of squared error (SSE) of 55,698,325, a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 3.338, and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 47.2%, outperforming Bass+NPV and Logistic+NPV. The selected model projects EV adoption from 2026 to 2035 under thirteen policy scenarios, and without additional policy intervention, cumulative adoption reaches only 1,567,894 units or 78.4% of the two million unit target by 2030, with the target achieved only in 2031. Only three scenarios achieve the target by 2030, namely a 0% annual vehicle tax combined with either a 10% or 15% purchase incentive, and a segment targeted incentive. Uniform percentage incentives across market segments are regressive, with the NPV benefit for the premium segment reaching 4.29 times that of the low segment, while a targeted incentive reverses this pattern. These findings indicate that targeted incentive design has a greater influence on policy benefits than incentive size itself.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | adopsi kendaraan listrik, model difusi Gompertz, net present value, segmentasi pasar, skenario kebijakan, electric vehicle adoption, Gompertz diffusion model, market segmentation, net present value, policy scenario |
| Subjects: | T Technology > TL Motor vehicles. Aeronautics. Astronautics > TL220 Electric vehicles and their batteries, etc. |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Industrial Technology > Industrial Engineering > 26201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Nicole Anacia Dinar S. |
| Date Deposited: | 30 Jul 2026 06:24 |
| Last Modified: | 30 Jul 2026 06:24 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/139566 |
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