Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca di Indonesia Menggunakan Model Autoregressive dan Distributed Lag

Mustakim, Abror Isa (2026) Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca di Indonesia Menggunakan Model Autoregressive dan Distributed Lag. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Perubahan iklim akibat peningkatan emisi gas rumah kaca menjadi isu penting di Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui karakteristik emisi gas rumah kaca di Indonesia periode 1970 hingga 2024 serta memodelkannya menggunakan metode Autoregressive, Distributed Lag, dan Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Sebelum pemodelan, dilakukan analisis deskriptif dan uji asumsi yang diperlukan. Sebagai pembanding, digunakan pula model Autoregressive dan Distributed Lag. Model Autoregressive menunjukkan emisi gas rumah kaca periode sebelumnya berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap emisi periode saat ini dengan koefisien 0,994. Berdasarkan uji diagnostik model yang memenuhi asumsi normalitas, non-autokorelasi, dan homoskedastisitas. Model Distributed Lag menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi energi primer periode saat ini dan investasi langsung asing periode sebelumnya juga berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap emisi gas rumah kaca. Berdasarkan uji diagnostik model yang hanya memenuhi asumsi normalitas. Hasil pemodelan ARDL menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat hubungan jangka panjang (kointegrasi) antara emiis gas rumah kaca, konsumsi energi primer, dan investasi langsung asing. Oleh karena itu, analisis difokuskan pada hubungan jangka pendek. Hasil estimasi ARDL menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi energi primer pada periode saat ini berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap emisi gas rumah kaca, sedangkan konsumsi energi pada lag pertama dan lag kedua berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan. Selain itu, FDI pada lag pertama berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap emisi gas rumah kaca, sedangkan pengaruh FDI pada periode saat ini dan lag kedua tidak signifikan. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa perubahan konsumsi energi dan investasi asing mempengaruhi emisi gas rumah kaca dalam jangka pendek, namun tidak membentuk hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang selama periode penelitian.
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Climate change driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions has become a major environmental issue in Indonesia. This study aims to examine the characteristics of greenhouse gas emissions in Indonesia from 1970 to 2024 and to model them using the Autoregressive, Distributed Lag, and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methods. Prior to model estimation, descriptive analysis and the required diagnostic tests were conducted. The Autoregressive and Distributed Lag models were also employed for comparison. The Autoregressive model indicates that greenhouse gas emissions in the previous period have a positive and significant effect on current greenhouse gas emissions, with a coefficient of 0.994. Based on the diagnostic tests, the model satisfies the assumptions of normality, no autocorrelation, and homoscedasticity. The Distributed Lag model shows that current primary energy consumption and lagged foreign direct investment have a positive and significant effect on greenhouse gas emissions. However, based on the diagnostic tests, the model only satisfies the normality assumption. The ARDL model indicates that there is no long-run relationship (cointegration) among greenhouse gas emissions, primary energy consumption, and foreign direct investment. Therefore, the analysis focuses on the short-run relationship. The ARDL estimation results reveal that current primary energy consumption has a positive and significant effect on greenhouse gas emissions, while primary energy consumption at the first and second lags has a negative and significant effect. In addition, foreign direct investment at the first lag has a positive and significant effect on greenhouse gas emissions, whereas its contemporaneous value and second lag are not statistically significant. These findings indicate that changes in primary energy consumption and foreign direct investment affect greenhouse gas emissions only in the short run and do not establish a long-run equilibrium relationship over the study period.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Autoregressive, Distributed Lag, Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca, Investasi Langsung Asing, Konsumsi Energi -------------------------------------------------------------- Autoregressive, Distributed Lag, Energy Consumption Primer, Foreign Direct Investment, Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis. Logistic regression
Divisions:	Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics
Depositing User:	Abror Isa Mustakim
Date Deposited:	31 Jul 2026 04:23
Last Modified:	31 Jul 2026 04:23
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/140668

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