Simulasi Skenario Worst-Case Pelepasan Metanol dan Potensi Ledakannya Berbasis Source dan Dispersion Model Pada Pabrik Biodiesel

Haque, Aisya Morina (2026) Simulasi Skenario Worst-Case Pelepasan Metanol dan Potensi Ledakannya Berbasis Source dan Dispersion Model Pada Pabrik Biodiesel. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Dalam upaya menurunkan emisi gas rumah kaca dan meningkatkan ketahanan energi nasional, pemerintah Indonesia menerapkan kebijakan peningkatan campuran biodiesel dalam bahan bakar diesel dari B35 menjadi B40 sejak Januari 2025. Kebijakan ini mendorong pertumbuhan industri biodiesel dengan 32 pabrik berkapasitas total 18,1 juta kL per tahun pada 2024. Meskipun biodiesel merupakan energi terbarukan, proses produksinya melibatkan metanol yang bersifat mudah terbakar dan beracun sehingga berpotensi menimbulkan kebocoran uap, kebakaran, dan ledakan. Penelitian ini bertujuan memodelkan dan mensimulasikan skenario worst-case pelepasan metanol menggunakan source-dispersion model untuk memprediksi distribusi konsentrasi di udara sebagai dasar penentuan tingkat severity di pabrik biodiesel. Metodologi meliputi pemodelan matematis source model untuk menghitung laju pelepasan metanol, dilanjutkan dengan dispersion model untuk menentukan sebaran konsentrasi di atmosfer. Hasil pemodelan digunakan sebagai masukan pada perangkat lunak EFFECTS untuk mensimulasikan konsekuensi, menentukan zona bahaya, dan mengevaluasi tingkat severity. Hasil menunjukkan kebocoran tangki menghasilkan dampak paling parah atau worst-case dengan jarak toksik 562 m (ERPG-3), awan uap 70 m (50% LFL), dan overpressure 24 m (40 mbar), sedangkan kebocoran pipa lebih terbatas. Untuk meminimalkan severity, sistem deteksi, alarm, dan ESD direkomendasikan aktif sebelum 50 detik, dengan gas detector pada radius maksimum 3 m dari sumber kebocoran. Temuan ini menjadi dasar penentuan zona bahaya, strategi mitigasi, serta peningkatan keselamatan proses pada fasilitas biodiesel.
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In an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and strengthen national energy security, the Indonesian government has implemented a policy to increase the biodiesel blending mandate in diesel fuel from B35 to B40 starting in January 2025. This policy has accelerated the growth of the biodiesel industry, with 32 biodiesel plants operating in 2024 and a total production capacity of 18.1 million kL per year. Although biodiesel is recognized as a renewable energy source, its production process involves methanol, a highly flammable and toxic chemical that poses significant risks of vapor release, fire, and explosion. This study aims to model and simulate worst-case methanol release scenarios using a source–dispersion model to predict atmospheric concentration distributions as the basis for severity assessment in biodiesel plants. The methodology includes mathematical source modeling to calculate the methanol release rate, followed by dispersion modeling to estimate vapor concentration distributions in the atmosphere. The modeling results were used as inputs to the EFFECTS software to simulate consequences, determine hazard zones, and evaluate severity levels. The results show that tank leakage produces the most severe impact (worst-case), with a toxic distance of 562 m (ERPG-3), a flammable vapor cloud of 70 m (50% LFL), and an overpressure of 24 m (40 mbar), while pipeline leakage produces more limited impacts. To minimize severity, detection systems, alarms, and ESD are recommended to be activated within 50 seconds, with gas detectors placed at a maximum radius of 3 m from the leak source. These findings serve as the basis for determining hazard zones, mitigation strategies, and process safety improvements at biodiesel facilities.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Metanol, source model, dispersion model, EFFECTS, Methanol, consequence analysis
Subjects:	T Technology > TP Chemical technology > TP155.7 Chemical processes. T Technology > TP Chemical technology > TP692.5 Oil and gasoline handling and storage
Divisions:	Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Chemical Engineering > 24101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Aisya Morina Haque
Date Deposited:	31 Jul 2026 05:06
Last Modified:	31 Jul 2026 05:06
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/140741

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